⚠️ Work in progress. This site is in active development and is auto-generated from an internal knowledge base. Details may be incomplete, out of date, or inaccurate — treat figures and statuses as indicative, not authoritative.⚠️ Travail en cours. Ce site est en cours de développement et est généré automatiquement à partir d’une base de connaissances interne. Les détails peuvent être incomplets, obsolètes ou inexacts — considérez les chiffres et les statuts comme indicatifs, sans valeur officielle.

OCHA Anticipatory Action Frameworks

Published triggers, windows, and pre-arranged financing across the Centre for Humanitarian Data's AA portfolio. Red markers flag frameworks that have activated.Déclencheurs publiés, fenêtres de déclenchement et financements pré-arrangés du portefeuille d’action anticipatoire du Centre de données humanitaires. Les marqueurs rouges signalent les cadres qui se sont activés.

Map

Current version of each framework. Pin colour = status; each red dot = one past activation. Shaded countries have at least one framework. Click a pin for detail (activation dates link to the announcement where one exists).Version actuelle de chaque cadre. Couleur de l’épingle = statut ; chaque point rouge = une activation passée. Les pays ombrés comptent au moins un cadre. Cliquez sur une épingle pour le détail (les dates d’activation renvoient à l’annonce lorsqu’elle existe).

Active frameworks

Current version of each operational framework; multi-country frameworks are split to one row per country. Click a column header to sort; type in the per-column boxes to filter.Version actuelle de chaque cadre opérationnel ; les cadres multi-pays sont répartis en une ligne par pays. Cliquez sur un en-tête de colonne pour trier ; tapez dans les cases de chaque colonne pour filtrer.

CountryHazardMonitoringAOIStatusActivationsTrigger (per window)Pre-arrangedTarget peopleFramework doc
(endorsed date)
Repo
DR Congocholerayear-roundNord-Kivu; Sud-Kivu; Tanganyika; Haut-Lomami; Haut-Katanga; Non-endemic provinces (all other)Active2023-01↗, 2023-06↗, 2025-03↗, 2025-05↗, 2025-07↗, 2026-02↗
Scenario 1 — endemic provinces Suspected cases: ≥174 suspected cases/week OR ≥4× week-over-week increase (or a combination), sustained 3 consecutive w…
Scenario 2 — non-endemic provinces Suspected cases: ≥63 suspected cases/week OR ≥4× week-over-week increase (or a combination); same 3-week + lab-confirma…
$4.0M2026-06-10 ↗🔒 private
Mozambiquecholerayear-roundNationalActive
District path Weekly AWD cases per district: floor met AND (4× prev week OR ≥99th percentile per 100k) for 3 consecutive weeks; ≥2 di…
Province path Weekly province-total AWD cases ≥2,500 for 3 consecutive weeks: 2,500 cases/week
$1.5M2026-05-22 ↗ds-aa-moz-cholera ↗
AfghanistandroughtMar–AprBalkh; Faryab; Jawzjan; Sar-e-Pul; BadghisActive2025-04↗
Window A (March) SEAS5 MAM precipitation forecast (area-weighted, 5 provinces): ≤ 129 mm
Window B (April) CDI = weighted average of z-scored: FAO ASI (March dekad 3, 20.6%), blended ERA5 obs/SEAS5 forecast precipitation (27.6…
$22.0M390,2752026-04-04 ↗ds-aa-afg-drought ↗
Burkina FasodroughtApr, Aug–SepLiptako; YaadgaActive
issued April SEAS5 seasonal precip (Jun–Oct) tercile: ≥ 50% of AOI in lowest tercile
dekads 21–26 (late Jul–mid Sep) JRC ASAP biomass/water-balance: Level-3 alert in ≥2 provinces
$8.0M2026-04-17 ↗pa-aa-bfa-drought ↗
EthiopiadroughtFeb, Apr–May, Aug–SepSomali; Oromia; South Ethiopia Region; Afar; SNNPdevelopment2020-12↗, 2021-03
MAM (Belg, Mar–May) SEAS5 Feb-issued zone count at >=5yr RP: >=15 zones (of 62 monitored)
JJAS (Kiremt, Jun–Sep) SEAS5 Apr OR May-issued zone count at >=5yr RP: >=35 zones (of 83 monitored); Apr OR May issue (Mar is monitoring conte…
OND (Deyr, Oct–Dec) Maproom woreda/zone drought trigger over 19 zones: Maproom-defined (not a SEAS5 zone-count)
not publicds-aa-eth-drought ↗
KenyadroughtJul–SepKE001; KE007; KE009; KE011; KE023; KE026; KE028; KE036; KE038; KE039development
OND-July-checkpoint "KMD SPI-OND < -0.98 prob" (EAP); "KMD CPT below-normal prob" (repo: 40%/35% IOD-adjusted): EAP: ≥33% in ≥3 of 23 ASAL…
OND-August-checkpoint same: EAP: ≥33% in ≥3 of 23 ASAL counties; repo RP5: same IOD thresholds
OND-September-checkpoint same: EAP: ≥33% in ≥3 of 23 ASAL counties; repo RP5: same IOD thresholds
not publicds-aa-ken-drought ↗
GuatemaladroughtMar–May, Jul–SepChiquimula, Zacapa, Jalapa, El Progresorecently triggered2025-07↗, 2026-03↗
Window A — Primera (MJJA) SEAS5 seasonal precip (mm) over priority departments: Per-leadtime RP thresholds (grid-searched); overall seasonal RP ≈…
Window B — Postrera (SON) SEAS5 seasonal precip (mm) over priority departments: Per-leadtime RP thresholds; overall seasonal RP ≈ 1 in 3.9–4.4 yr…
$4.0M2026-03-13 ↗ds-aa-lac-dry-corridor ↗
HondurasdroughtMar–May, Jul–SepEl Paraíso (Texiguat, Vado Ancho), Francisco Morazán (Curarén, Alubarén, Reitoca)recently triggered2026-03↗
Window A — Primera (MJJA) SEAS5 seasonal precip (mm) over priority departments: Per-leadtime RP thresholds (grid-searched); overall seasonal RP ≈…
Window B — Postrera (SON) SEAS5 seasonal precip (mm) over priority departments: Per-leadtime RP thresholds; overall seasonal RP ≈ 1 in 3.9–4.4 yr…
$4.0M2026-03-13 ↗ds-aa-lac-dry-corridor ↗
El SalvadordroughtMar–May, Jul–SepAhuachapán, Santa Anarecently triggered2026-03↗
Window A — Primera (MJJA) SEAS5 seasonal precip (mm) over priority departments: Per-leadtime RP thresholds (grid-searched); overall seasonal RP ≈…
Window B — Postrera (SON) SEAS5 seasonal precip (mm) over priority departments: Per-leadtime RP thresholds; overall seasonal RP ≈ 1 in 3.9–4.4 yr…
$2.5M2026-03-13 ↗ds-aa-lac-dry-corridor ↗
MauritaniadroughtFeb–May, Jul–AugMR10recently triggered2026-05↗
Window 1 — Forecast (Feb–May) ONM JAS seasonal forecast (NCDP Maproom v8), top-45% drought years across Mauritania, two consecutive issue months: 45t…
Window 2 — Observational (Jul–Aug) Cumulative CHIRPS national-average rainfall since 1 July vs dekad thresholds: 2nd Jul=6.6mm, 3rd Jul=13.6mm, 1st Aug=22…
$2.5M2026-04-17 ↗ds-aa-mrt-drought ↗
NigerdroughtFeb–Jun, Augsouth-of-17N-zonedevelopment2022-08↗
Window 1 "save the harvest" IRI below-avg JAS prob (rolling 10-yr reference): top 35% of reference window (app default)
Window 2 (forecast path) IRI below-avg JAS prob (rolling 10-yr reference): top 35% of reference window (app default)
Window 2 (observational path) "Aug" column: bottom 15% of full record (app default; endorsed PDF states lowest 35% — unresolved)
not publicds-aa-ner-drought ↗
ChaddroughtMar–Jun, SepLac; Kanem; Bahr-El-Gazal; Sila; Wadi Fira; Batha; OuaddaïActive2026-04↗, 2026-05↗
Window 1 — livelihoods (main harvest) SEAS5 pixel percentile rank, spatial 20th quantile over AOI: < 15th historical percentile
Window 2 — livelihoods (market garden & livestock) SEAS5 pixel percentile rank, spatial 20th quantile over AOI: < 15th historical percentile
Window 3 — early humanitarian impact ACF biomass trend-adjusted anomaly, AOI aggregate, dekad 24 (3rd decade Aug): < 84.5% of linear-fit prediction
$8.0M260,0002025-03-03 ↗ds-aa-tcd-drought ↗
Burkina FasofloodJul–SepLiptako; Koulsé; Bankui; Yaadga; Djoro; Sourourecently triggered2025-09↗
Scenario 3: SEAS5 seasonal forecast (5 regions) SEAS5-monthly-precip-forecast: Region-specific per month (see table below): Liptako 5.04/7.55/3.77 mm, Koulsé 5.98/8.32…
Scenario 4: CONASUR observational alert + IMERG CONASUR-flood-alert, IMERG-observed-precip: CONASUR categorical alert (confirmed flood in target region, validated by I…
Scenarios 1 and 2: Mouhoun river gauge (DEFERRED to 2026) river-gauge-level-DGRE: Yaran station 416 cm (upper Mouhoun, 13–24 day lead); Ténado station 580 cm / 130 m3/s (lower M…
$1.0M79,8002025-08 ↗ds-aa-bfa-flooding ↗
BangladeshfloodJun–SepBogra; Jamalpur; Sirajganj; Gaibandha; Kurigram; Madaripur; Manikganj; ShariatpurActive2020-07↗, 2020-07↗, 2024-07↗
Readiness GloFAS-discharge-probability at Bahadurabad: P(discharge > 1-in-5 RP) ≥ 50% for 3 consecutive days
Action FFWC-water-level at Bahadurabad + GloFAS/RIMES trend at Bahadurabad: FFWC crosses DL+0.85 m AND GloFAS/RIMES sustained/…
Readiness GloFAS-discharge-probability at Baruria transit (Goalando): P(discharge > 1-in-5 RP) ≥ 50% for 3 consecutive days
Action FFWC-water-level at Mawa + GloFAS/RIMES trend at Baruria transit: FFWC crosses DL+0.5 m ("1-in-5 RP") AND GloFAS/RIMES…
$6.0M2025-04-25 ↗pa-aa-bgd-flooding ↗
NigerfloodNov–Feb, Jul–SepDosso; Tillabérirecently triggered2024-11↗, 2026-01
mobilisation (crue locale Jul-Sep OR crue guinéenne Nov-Feb) ABN-Niamey-water-level-cm: 592 cm
action (crue locale Jul-Sep OR crue guinéenne Nov-Feb) ABN-Niamey-water-level-cm: 604 cm
$5.0M109,1562025-11-04 ↗pa-aa-ner-flooding ↗
NigeriafloodAug–NovNG002001; NG002002; NG002005; NG002009; NG002016; NG002020; NG002021Active2025-09↗
Adamawa action — riverine (Benue R.) Google-GRRR-multi-gauge-discharge (≥6 of 10 gauges simultaneously exceed 4-yr RP): Per-gauge 4-yr empirical Weibull RP…
Adamawa readiness — GloFAS (forecast OR reanalysis) GloFAS-discharge at Wuroboki (G5004): ≥3,132 m³/s (READINESS_GLOFAS_THRESH) for both branches
NHF flash flood — BAY states (4 retargeted LGAs) FloodScan×WorldPop population exposure per LGA, strict 3-day rolling mean (app.floodscan_exposure): Mobbar 14,720; Maid…
not publicds-aa-nga-flooding ↗
NepalfloodJun–SepNPL/Koshi Province/Sunsari district — Chatara gauge, Koshi river (in scope of the endorsed 2025 framework); NPL/Karnali — Chisapani gauge, Karnali river (out of endorsed 2025 scope; carried for cross-source evaluation only)development2021-08↗, 2022-10↗, 2024-10↗, 2024-10↗, 2022-10↗
readiness GloFAS ensemble discharge at Chatara, ≥50% prob > RP5 (10,300 m³/s), 7-day lead
action DHM 3-day flood-forecast bulletin (3 qualitative conditions)
not publicds-aa-npl-flooding ↗
ChadfloodJul–OctTD18; TD11Active2024-09↗
Readiness (Mobilisation) GloFAS ensemble-mean discharge, Chari R. at N'Djamena: ≥ 4,542 m³/s
Action GloFAS ensemble-mean discharge, Chari R. at N'Djamena: ≥ 4,542 m³/s
$4.0M2025-07-31 ↗pa-aa-tcd-flooding ↗
MadagascarplagueOct–AprCentral highlands (plague-endemic regions)development
*(none documented)* —: —
not public
Bangladeshtropical-cycloneApr–Jun, Oct–NovBarguna; Bhola; Patuakhali; Noakhali; Satkhira; KhulnaActive
Stage I — Readiness ≥2 of 5 models forecast wind speed at union level: 118 km/h
Stage II — Action ≥2 of 5 models forecast wind speed at union level; well-formed low pressure or depression formed in Bay: 118 km/h
Stage III — Observational Observed wind at landfall (BMD/IMD) or ≥2 of {ECMWF, GFS, JTWC} consensus: 118 km/h
$4.0M2025-04-25 ↗ds-aa-bgd-cyclone-monitoring ↗
Cubatropical-cycloneJun–Decdevelopment2025-10↗
Forecast (exposure-based) NHC wind-buffer pop. exposure at 34/50/64 kt (max total fcast = fcast + cummax obsv): TBD — optimization yields n=10 tr…
Observational (rainfall fallback) IMERG q80 2-day rainfall over Cuba: TBD — set deterministically as (n - n_exp)-th largest q80 among non-exposure-trigge…
not publicds-aa-cub-hurricanes ↗
Fijitropical-cycloneOct–MayNationalActive
readiness Population exposed to ≥ 64-knot FMS wind-field buffers (WorldPop 2020 1 km): ≥ 5,000 people
action Same wind-field/population exposure indicator, truncated at 72 hr: ≥ 5,000 people
observational IMERG Late v07b 2-day average rainfall over Fiji (TC within 250 km ± 1 day): ≥ 190 mm
$3.9M2025-12-17 ↗pa-aa-fji-storms ↗
Haititropical-cycloneJun–NovNationaldevelopment2025-10↗
forecast wind exposure (≥64 kt pop) OR forecast 2-day rain OR NHC Hurricane Warning for Haiti: optimised by 2D sweep (exp thresh…
observed observed-only ≥64 kt wind exposure OR observed 2-day rolling rainfall ≥ threshold: same exposure threshold as forecast…
not publicds-aa-hti-hurricanes ↗
Madagascartropical-cycloneNov–AprNationalrecently triggered2026-02↗
Readiness Wind speed forecast + distance to coast (Météo-Madagascar bulletin): ≥ 166 km/h (≈ 90 kt) forecast within 100 km of coa…
Action Wind speed forecast + distance to coast (Météo-Madagascar bulletin): ≥ 166 km/h (≈ 90 kt) forecast within 100 km of coa…
$3.0M2024-12-13 ↗ds-aa-mdg-storms ↗
Myanmartropical-cycloneApr–DecRakhinedevelopment
wind alert ECMWF-wind-speed, CMA-wind-speed (distance-reduced at Rakhine): >= 47 kt at Rakhine ADM1
rainfall alert CHIRPS-GEFS-3day-rainfall (3-day rolling SUM of Rakhine ADM1 daily-mean precip): >= 175 mm 3-day rolling sum
not publicds-aa-mmr-cyclones ↗
Mozambiquetropical-cycloneNov–AprCabo Delgado; Nampula; Zambezia; Sofala; Inhambane; Gaza; Maputo; Maputo Cityrecently triggered2025-03↗, 2026-02↗
Readiness windspeed exposed-area: ≥ 119 km/h over a coastal province
Action windspeed exposed-area: ≥ 119 km/h over a coastal province
Observational (wind) windspeed at landfall: ≥ 119 km/h
Observational (rain) 3-day province rain (IMERG): > 120 mm
$4.5M2026-01-09 ↗ds-aa-moz-cyclones ↗
Philippinestropical-cycloneJun–DecBicol (R5); Eastern Visayas (R8); Caraga (R13)recently triggered2025-11↗
readiness "ECMWF-wind-forecast: max 10-min sustained wind speed": ≥177 km/h (or ≥200 km/h 1-min) projected to impact Region 5, 8,…
action "510-model-houses-totally-damaged": Per-region matrix (e.g. Region 5: 50%@25k, 60%@15k, 70%@10k, 80%@6k, 95%@2.5k; Regi…
observational "PAGASA-sustained-windspeed": Super typhoon ≥185 km/h (10-min); ≥50% of target region within damaging winds; used only…
$6.0M955,5022025-10-03 ↗pa-aa-phl-storms ↗
Vanuatutropical-cycloneNov–AprSanma; Shefa; Tafeadevelopment
activation IBTrACS USA-radii pop. exposed to ≥64kt wind (AOI: Shefa, Sanma, Tafea) AND IMERG 2-day mean rainfall (country): not fi…
not publicds-aa-vut-cyclones ↗

All versions

Every ingested version, including superseded and retired.Toutes les versions ingérées, y compris remplacées et retirées.

Show full version history
CountryHazardMonitoringAOIStatusVersionActivationsTrigger (per window)Pre-arrangedTarget peopleFramework doc
(endorsed date)
RepoSupersedes
AfghanistandroughtMar–AprBalkh; Faryab; Jawzjan; Sar-e-Pul; BadghisActive2026-04-042025-04↗
Window A (March) SEAS5 MAM precipitation forecast (area-weighted, 5 provinces): ≤ 129 mm
Window B (April) CDI = weighted average of z-scored: FAO ASI (March dekad 3, 20.6%), blended ERA5 obs/SEAS5 forecast precipitation (27.6…
$22.0M390,2752026-04-04 ↗ds-aa-afg-drought ↗2025-04-01
Burkina FasodroughtApr, Aug–SepLiptako; YaadgaActive2026-04-17
issued April SEAS5 seasonal precip (Jun–Oct) tercile: ≥ 50% of AOI in lowest tercile
dekads 21–26 (late Jul–mid Sep) JRC ASAP biomass/water-balance: Level-3 alert in ≥2 provinces
$8.0M2026-04-17 ↗pa-aa-bfa-drought ↗2025-02-28
Burkina FasofloodJul–SepLiptako; Koulsé; Bankui; Yaadga; Djoro; Sourourecently triggered2025-082025-09↗
Scenario 3: SEAS5 seasonal forecast (5 regions) SEAS5-monthly-precip-forecast: Region-specific per month (see table below): Liptako 5.04/7.55/3.77 mm, Koulsé 5.98/8.32…
Scenario 4: CONASUR observational alert + IMERG CONASUR-flood-alert, IMERG-observed-precip: CONASUR categorical alert (confirmed flood in target region, validated by I…
Scenarios 1 and 2: Mouhoun river gauge (DEFERRED to 2026) river-gauge-level-DGRE: Yaran station 416 cm (upper Mouhoun, 13–24 day lead); Ténado station 580 cm / 130 m3/s (lower M…
$1.0M79,8002025-08 ↗ds-aa-bfa-flooding ↗
Bangladeshtropical-cycloneApr–Jun, Oct–NovBarguna; Bhola; Patuakhali; Noakhali; Satkhira; KhulnaActive2025-04-25
Stage I — Readiness ≥2 of 5 models forecast wind speed at union level: 118 km/h
Stage II — Action ≥2 of 5 models forecast wind speed at union level; well-formed low pressure or depression formed in Bay: 118 km/h
Stage III — Observational Observed wind at landfall (BMD/IMD) or ≥2 of {ECMWF, GFS, JTWC} consensus: 118 km/h
$4.0M2025-04-25 ↗ds-aa-bgd-cyclone-monitoring ↗2023-12-23
BangladeshfloodJun–SepBogra; Jamalpur; Sirajganj; Gaibandha; Kurigram; Madaripur; Manikganj; ShariatpurActive2025-04-252020-07↗, 2024-07↗
Readiness GloFAS-discharge-probability at Bahadurabad: P(discharge > 1-in-5 RP) ≥ 50% for 3 consecutive days
Action FFWC-water-level at Bahadurabad + GloFAS/RIMES trend at Bahadurabad: FFWC crosses DL+0.85 m AND GloFAS/RIMES sustained/…
Readiness GloFAS-discharge-probability at Baruria transit (Goalando): P(discharge > 1-in-5 RP) ≥ 50% for 3 consecutive days
Action FFWC-water-level at Mawa + GloFAS/RIMES trend at Baruria transit: FFWC crosses DL+0.5 m ("1-in-5 RP") AND GloFAS/RIMES…
$6.0M2025-04-25 ↗pa-aa-bgd-flooding ↗2023
BangladeshfloodJun–SepBogura; Gaibandha; Kurigram; Jamalpur; Sirajganjsuperseded2020-06-262020-07↗
Pre-activation GloFAS-discharge-probability at Bahadurabad: >50% probability of discharge exceeding 100,000 m3/s, sustained 3 days
Activation FFWC-water-level at Bahadurabad: FFWC crosses Danger Level + 0.85 m
$7.5M390,0002020-06-26 ↗
DR Congocholerayear-roundNord-Kivu; Sud-Kivu; Tanganyika; Haut-Lomami; Haut-Katanga; Non-endemic provinces (all other)Active2026-06-10
Scenario 1 — endemic provinces Suspected cases: ≥174 suspected cases/week OR ≥4× week-over-week increase (or a combination), sustained 3 consecutive w…
Scenario 2 — non-endemic provinces Suspected cases: ≥63 suspected cases/week OR ≥4× week-over-week increase (or a combination); same 3-week + lab-confirma…
$4.0M2026-06-10 ↗🔒 private2025-03-11
DR Congocholerayear-roundNord-Kivu; Sud-Kivu; Tanganyika; Haut-Lomami; Haut-Katanga; Non-endemic provinces (all other)superseded2025-03-112023-01↗, 2023-06↗, 2025-03↗, 2025-05↗, 2025-07↗, 2026-02↗
Scenario 1 — endemic provinces Suspected cases, deaths, cases/pop (max of 6 criteria): Any indicator at Alert Level 3 (>p99 or >4x w/w) for 3 consecut…
Scenario 2 — non-endemic provinces Suspected cases, deaths, cases/pop (max of 6 criteria): Same alert structure as Scenario 1
$3.0M2025-03-11 ↗🔒 private2022-12-07
Cubatropical-cycloneJun–Decrecently triggered2025-08-262025-10↗
Readiness NHC forecast max wind in ZMA: ≥ 120 kt (Cat. 4)
Anticipatory Action NHC forecast max wind in ZMA: ≥ 120 kt (Cat. 4)
Early Response NHC observed wind in ZMA AND IMERG 2-day precip (q80 Cuba): ≥ 105 kt (Cat. 3) AND ≥ 98.2 mm
$4.0M170,0002025-08-26 ↗ds-aa-cub-hurricanes ↗
Cubatropical-cycloneJun–Decdevelopment2026-06-17
Forecast (exposure-based) NHC wind-buffer pop. exposure at 34/50/64 kt (max total fcast = fcast + cummax obsv): TBD — optimization yields n=10 tr…
Observational (rainfall fallback) IMERG q80 2-day rainfall over Cuba: TBD — set deterministically as (n - n_exp)-th largest q80 among non-exposure-trigge…
not publicds-aa-cub-hurricanes ↗2025-08-26
EthiopiadroughtFeb, Apr–May, Aug–SepSomali; Oromia; South Ethiopia Region; Afar; SNNPdevelopment2026-06-09
MAM (Belg, Mar–May) SEAS5 Feb-issued zone count at >=5yr RP: >=15 zones (of 62 monitored)
JJAS (Kiremt, Jun–Sep) SEAS5 Apr OR May-issued zone count at >=5yr RP: >=35 zones (of 83 monitored); Apr OR May issue (Mar is monitoring conte…
OND (Deyr, Oct–Dec) Maproom woreda/zone drought trigger over 19 zones: Maproom-defined (not a SEAS5 zone-count)
not publicds-aa-eth-drought ↗2020-12-07
EthiopiadroughtSomali; Oromia; South Ethiopia Region; Afar; SNNPretired2020-12-072020-12↗, 2021-03
Drought-related food insecurity (single, AND-logic) (food insecurity) IPC 3-month/6-month projection; AND (drought) ≥2 seasonal rainfall forecasts (ICPAC/NMA/NMME/IRI) OR…
$20.0M900,0002020-12-07 ↗ds-aa-eth-drought ↗
Fijitropical-cycloneOct–MayNationalActive2025-12-17
readiness Population exposed to ≥ 64-knot FMS wind-field buffers (WorldPop 2020 1 km): ≥ 5,000 people
action Same wind-field/population exposure indicator, truncated at 72 hr: ≥ 5,000 people
observational IMERG Late v07b 2-day average rainfall over Fiji (TC within 250 km ± 1 day): ≥ 190 mm
$3.9M2025-12-17 ↗pa-aa-fji-storms ↗2023-11-13
Haititropical-cycloneJun–NovNationaldevelopment2026-06-09
forecast wind exposure (≥64 kt pop) OR forecast 2-day rain OR NHC Hurricane Warning for Haiti: optimised by 2D sweep (exp thresh…
observed observed-only ≥64 kt wind exposure OR observed 2-day rolling rainfall ≥ threshold: same exposure threshold as forecast…
not publicds-aa-hti-hurricanes ↗2024-08-23
Haititropical-cycloneJun–NovNational (excl. Nord-Ouest, Centre)superseded2024-08-232025-10↗
Mobilisation → readiness
Anticipatory Action → action
Early Response → obsv
$4.0M2024-08-23 ↗ds-aa-hti-hurricanes ↗
KenyadroughtJul–SepKE001; KE007; KE009; KE011; KE023; KE026; KE028; KE036; KE038; KE039development2023-02-19
OND-July-checkpoint "KMD SPI-OND < -0.98 prob" (EAP); "KMD CPT below-normal prob" (repo: 40%/35% IOD-adjusted): EAP: ≥33% in ≥3 of 23 ASAL…
OND-August-checkpoint same: EAP: ≥33% in ≥3 of 23 ASAL counties; repo RP5: same IOD thresholds
OND-September-checkpoint same: EAP: ≥33% in ≥3 of 23 ASAL counties; repo RP5: same IOD thresholds
not publicds-aa-ken-drought ↗
GuatemaladroughtMar–May, Jul–SepChiquimula, Zacapa, Jalapa, El Progresorecently triggered2026-03-132025-07↗, 2026-03↗
Window A — Primera (MJJA) SEAS5 seasonal precip (mm) over priority departments: Per-leadtime RP thresholds (grid-searched); overall seasonal RP ≈…
Window B — Postrera (SON) SEAS5 seasonal precip (mm) over priority departments: Per-leadtime RP thresholds; overall seasonal RP ≈ 1 in 3.9–4.4 yr…
$4.0M2026-03-13 ↗ds-aa-lac-dry-corridor ↗2025-02
HondurasdroughtMar–May, Jul–SepEl Paraíso (Texiguat, Vado Ancho), Francisco Morazán (Curarén, Alubarén, Reitoca)recently triggered2026-03-132026-03↗
Window A — Primera (MJJA) SEAS5 seasonal precip (mm) over priority departments: Per-leadtime RP thresholds (grid-searched); overall seasonal RP ≈…
Window B — Postrera (SON) SEAS5 seasonal precip (mm) over priority departments: Per-leadtime RP thresholds; overall seasonal RP ≈ 1 in 3.9–4.4 yr…
$4.0M2026-03-13 ↗ds-aa-lac-dry-corridor ↗2025-02
El SalvadordroughtMar–May, Jul–SepAhuachapán, Santa Anarecently triggered2026-03-132026-03↗
Window A — Primera (MJJA) SEAS5 seasonal precip (mm) over priority departments: Per-leadtime RP thresholds (grid-searched); overall seasonal RP ≈…
Window B — Postrera (SON) SEAS5 seasonal precip (mm) over priority departments: Per-leadtime RP thresholds; overall seasonal RP ≈ 1 in 3.9–4.4 yr…
$2.5M2026-03-13 ↗ds-aa-lac-dry-corridor ↗2025-02
GuatemaladroughtMar–AugChiquimula (San Jacinto, Jocotán, Camotán, San Juan Ermita, Chiquimula, San José La Arada, Concepción Las Minas, Olopa, Quezaltepeque, Esquipulas)superseded2025-02
Window A — Primera (MJJA) SEAS5-seasonal-precip (SLV, HND); INSIVUMEH-seasonal-precip (GTM lt 1–4); SEAS5 for GTM lt 0 (May): MJJA total ≤ RP-4 e…
Window B — Postrera (SON) SEAS5-seasonal-precip (SLV, HND); INSIVUMEH-seasonal-precip (GTM lt 1–3): SON total ≤ RP-4 empirical value; per-country…
$4.0M2025-02-27 ↗ds-aa-lac-dry-corridor ↗2024
HondurasdroughtMar–AugEl Paraíso (Texiguat, Vado Ancho); Francisco Morazán (Curarén, Alubarén, Reitoca)superseded2025-02
Window A — Primera (MJJA) SEAS5-seasonal-precip (SLV, HND); INSIVUMEH-seasonal-precip (GTM lt 1–4); SEAS5 for GTM lt 0 (May): MJJA total ≤ RP-4 e…
Window B — Postrera (SON) SEAS5-seasonal-precip (SLV, HND); INSIVUMEH-seasonal-precip (GTM lt 1–3): SON total ≤ RP-4 empirical value; per-country…
$4.0M2025-02-27 ↗ds-aa-lac-dry-corridor ↗2024
El SalvadordroughtMar–AugSan Vicente (San Vicente, Tecoluca)superseded2025-02
Window A — Primera (MJJA) SEAS5-seasonal-precip (SLV, HND); INSIVUMEH-seasonal-precip (GTM lt 1–4); SEAS5 for GTM lt 0 (May): MJJA total ≤ RP-4 e…
Window B — Postrera (SON) SEAS5-seasonal-precip (SLV, HND); INSIVUMEH-seasonal-precip (GTM lt 1–3): SON total ≤ RP-4 empirical value; per-country…
$2.5M2025-02-27 ↗ds-aa-lac-dry-corridor ↗2024
MadagascarplagueOct–AprCentral highlands (plague-endemic regions)developmentdraft-2021
*(none documented)* —: —
not public
Madagascartropical-cycloneNov–AprNationalrecently triggered2024-12-132026-02↗
Readiness Wind speed forecast + distance to coast (Météo-Madagascar bulletin): ≥ 166 km/h (≈ 90 kt) forecast within 100 km of coa…
Action Wind speed forecast + distance to coast (Météo-Madagascar bulletin): ≥ 166 km/h (≈ 90 kt) forecast within 100 km of coa…
$3.0M2024-12-13 ↗ds-aa-mdg-storms ↗
Myanmartropical-cycloneApr–DecRakhinedevelopmentdevelopment
wind alert ECMWF-wind-speed, CMA-wind-speed (distance-reduced at Rakhine): >= 47 kt at Rakhine ADM1
rainfall alert CHIRPS-GEFS-3day-rainfall (3-day rolling SUM of Rakhine ADM1 daily-mean precip): >= 175 mm 3-day rolling sum
not publicds-aa-mmr-cyclones ↗
Mozambiquecholerayear-roundNationalActive2026-05-22
District path Weekly AWD cases per district: floor met AND (4× prev week OR ≥99th percentile per 100k) for 3 consecutive weeks; ≥2 di…
Province path Weekly province-total AWD cases ≥2,500 for 3 consecutive weeks: 2,500 cases/week
$1.5M2026-05-22 ↗ds-aa-moz-cholera ↗
Mozambiquetropical-cycloneNov–AprCabo Delgado; Nampula; Zambezia; Sofala; Inhambane; Gaza; Maputo; Maputo Cityrecently triggered2026-01-092025-03↗, 2026-02↗
Readiness windspeed exposed-area: ≥ 119 km/h over a coastal province
Action windspeed exposed-area: ≥ 119 km/h over a coastal province
Observational (wind) windspeed at landfall: ≥ 119 km/h
Observational (rain) 3-day province rain (IMERG): > 120 mm
$4.5M2026-01-09 ↗ds-aa-moz-cyclones ↗2025-05-23
MauritaniadroughtFeb–May, Jul–AugMR10recently triggered2026-04-172026-05↗
Window 1 — Forecast (Feb–May) ONM JAS seasonal forecast (NCDP Maproom v8), top-45% drought years across Mauritania, two consecutive issue months: 45t…
Window 2 — Observational (Jul–Aug) Cumulative CHIRPS national-average rainfall since 1 July vs dekad thresholds: 2nd Jul=6.6mm, 3rd Jul=13.6mm, 1st Aug=22…
$2.5M2026-04-17 ↗ds-aa-mrt-drought ↗
MalawidroughtNov–FebBalaka; Chikwawa; Nsanjeretired2021
Stage I — predictive ECMWF subseasonal (S2S) dry-spell forecast: forecast of a dry spell (14 consecutive days, 0–2 mm) in January (decided m…
Stage II — observational CHIRPS observed rainfall: a dry spell (14 consecutive days, 0–2 mm) observed in the pilot districts (reported as "at le…
$7.0M2021-10 ↗
NigerdroughtFeb–Jun, Augsouth-of-17N-zonedevelopment2026-06-03
Window 1 "save the harvest" IRI below-avg JAS prob (rolling 10-yr reference): top 35% of reference window (app default)
Window 2 (forecast path) IRI below-avg JAS prob (rolling 10-yr reference): top 35% of reference window (app default)
Window 2 (observational path) "Aug" column: bottom 15% of full record (app default; endorsed PDF states lowest 35% — unresolved)
not publicds-aa-ner-drought ↗2024-10-24
NigerdroughtFeb–Jun, Augsouth-of-17N-zone; 28-priority-communessuperseded2024-10-242022-08↗
Window 1 "save the harvest" IRI below-avg JAS prob: driest 35%
Window 2 (forecast path) IRI below-avg JAS prob: driest 35%
Window 2 (obs path, fallback only) Jun–Jul SPI (ENACTS/CHIRP): lowest 35%
$14.8M455,4002024-10-24 ↗ds-aa-ner-drought ↗2022-08-04
NigerfloodNov–Feb, Jul–SepDosso; Tillabérirecently triggered2025-11-042024-11↗, 2026-01
mobilisation (crue locale Jul-Sep OR crue guinéenne Nov-Feb) ABN-Niamey-water-level-cm: 592 cm
action (crue locale Jul-Sep OR crue guinéenne Nov-Feb) ABN-Niamey-water-level-cm: 604 cm
$5.0M109,1562025-11-04 ↗pa-aa-ner-flooding ↗2024-10-24
NigeriafloodAug–NovNG002001; NG002002; NG002005; NG002009; NG002016; NG002020; NG002021Active2026-06-18
Adamawa action — riverine (Benue R.) Google-GRRR-multi-gauge-discharge (≥6 of 10 gauges simultaneously exceed 4-yr RP): Per-gauge 4-yr empirical Weibull RP…
Adamawa readiness — GloFAS (forecast OR reanalysis) GloFAS-discharge at Wuroboki (G5004): ≥3,132 m³/s (READINESS_GLOFAS_THRESH) for both branches
NHF flash flood — BAY states (4 retargeted LGAs) FloodScan×WorldPop population exposure per LGA, strict 3-day rolling mean (app.floodscan_exposure): Mobbar 14,720; Maid…
not publicds-aa-nga-flooding ↗2025-08-11
NigeriafloodAug–NovNG002001; NG002002; NG002005; NG002009; NG002016; NG002020; NG002021; NG008003; NG036001; NG036010; NG002010; NG008021; NG008025superseded2025-08-112025-09↗
Riverine flooding — Adamawa 7 LGAs GloFAS-discharge OR Google-GRRR-discharge: GloFAS ≥3,132 m³/s at Wuroboki (G5004); Google ≥1,195 m³/s at Kangli (hybas_…
Flash flooding — BAY states 6 LGAs FloodScan-SFED-exposure (3-day rolling avg × WorldPop 2020): Per-LGA: Bade 32,124; Bama 12,334; Karasuwa 4,296; Madagal…
$7.0M350,0002025-07-29 ↗ds-aa-nga-flooding ↗
NicaraguadroughtMar–AugNIC: five (unnamed in available public sources) municipalities within the Dry Corridorretired2024-03-22
Primera (inferred, MJJA) SEAS5-seasonal-precip (assumed): not confirmed
Postrera (inferred, SON) SEAS5-seasonal-precip (assumed): not confirmed
2024-03-22 ↗
NepalfloodJun–SepNPL/Koshi Province/Sunsari district — Chatara gauge, Koshi river (in scope of the endorsed 2025 framework); NPL/Karnali — Chisapani gauge, Karnali river (out of endorsed 2025 scope; carried for cross-source evaluation only)developmentdraft-geoglows
readiness GloFAS ensemble discharge at Chatara, ≥50% prob > RP5 (10,300 m³/s), 7-day lead
action DHM 3-day flood-forecast bulletin (3 qualitative conditions)
not publicds-aa-npl-flooding ↗2025-08-25
NepalfloodJun–SepNPL/Province No. 1/Sunsari district (5 palikas, Koshi basin); NPL/Province No. 2/Saptari district (7 palikas, Koshi basin); NPL/Lumbini Province/Banke district (3 palikas, Karnali basin); NPL/Lumbini Province/Bardiya district (6 palikas, Karnali basin); NPL/Sudurpaschim Province/Kailali district (2 palikas, Karnali basin)superseded20212021-08↗, 2022-10↗
readiness (Koshi/Chatara) GloFAS ensemble discharge at Chatara: ≥70% probability of exceeding RP2 discharge (6,350 m³/s)
action (Koshi/Chatara) DHM flood-warning bulletin AND (GloFAS 3-day ≥70% at RP2/6,350 m³/s OR observed level ≥ 7.0 m danger level): DHM alert…
readiness (Karnali/Chisapani) GloFAS ensemble discharge at Chisapani: ≥70% probability of exceeding RP2 discharge (6,300 m³/s)
action (Karnali/Chisapani) DHM flood-warning bulletin AND (GloFAS 3-day ≥70% at RP2/6,300 m³/s OR observed level ≥ 10.8 m danger level): DHM alert…
$6.7M80,0002021-08-09 ↗
NepalfloodJun–SepNPL/Koshi Province/Sunsari district (4 palikas: Barachchetra, Bhokraha Narsingh, Harinagar, Koshi); NPL/Madhesh Province/Saptari district (5 palikas: Chhinamasta, Hanumannagar Kankalini, Kanchanrup, Saptakoshi, Tilathi Koiladi); NPL/Lumbini Province/Bardiya district (4 palikas — names not sourced); NPL/Sudurpaschim Province/Kailali district (2 palikas — names not sourced)superseded2024-09-272024-10↗
readiness (Koshi/Chatara) GloFAS ensemble discharge: ≥70% probability of reaching RP2 (Copernicus-dashboard equivalent 8,113 m³/s at Chatara)
action (Koshi/Chatara) DHM real-time danger-level gauge OR GloFAS 3-day forecast: DHM gauge at government danger level (7.0 m at Chatara), OR…
readiness (Karnali/Chisapani) GloFAS ensemble discharge: ≥70% probability of reaching RP2 (Copernicus-dashboard equivalent 5,664 m³/s at Chisapani)
action (Karnali/Chisapani) DHM real-time danger-level gauge OR GloFAS 3-day forecast: DHM gauge at government danger level (10.5 m at Chisapani),…
$6.5M238,8312024-09-27 ↗ds-aa-npl-flooding ↗2023-09
NepalfloodJun–SepNPL/Koshi Province/Sunsari district (4 palikas: Barachchetra, Bhokraha Narsingh, Harinagar, Koshi); NPL/Madhesh Province/Saptari district (5 palikas: Chhinamasta, Hanumannagar Kankalini, Kanchanrup, Saptakoshi, Tilathi Koiladi)superseded2025-08-252024-10↗, 2022-10↗
readiness GloFAS ensemble discharge at Chatara: ≥ 50% probability of exceeding 10,300 m³/s within 7 days
action DHM 3-day flood-forecast bulletin: Chatara forecast red + forecast "significant increase" + advisory "extreme flooding"…
$2.7M50,0002025-08-25 ↗ds-aa-npl-flooding ↗2024-09-27
Philippinestropical-cycloneJun–DecBicol (R5); Eastern Visayas (R8); Caraga (R13)recently triggered2025-10-032025-11↗
readiness "ECMWF-wind-forecast: max 10-min sustained wind speed": ≥177 km/h (or ≥200 km/h 1-min) projected to impact Region 5, 8,…
action "510-model-houses-totally-damaged": Per-region matrix (e.g. Region 5: 50%@25k, 60%@15k, 70%@10k, 80%@6k, 95%@2.5k; Regi…
observational "PAGASA-sustained-windspeed": Super typhoon ≥185 km/h (10-min); ≥50% of target region within damaging winds; used only…
$6.0M955,5022025-10-03 ↗pa-aa-phl-storms ↗2024-09-13
Philippinestropical-cycloneJun–DecBicol (R5); Eastern Visayas (R8) — Samar Island provinces (Scenario 1) / Leyte Island provinces (Scenario 2); Caraga (R13)superseded2022
readiness ECMWF-wind-forecast: Category 4+ TC (>200 km/h maximum 1-min sustained wind speed) projected to impact Region 5, 8, or…
action 510-model-houses-totally-damaged: Probability matrix: 50% probability of ≥80,000 houses totally damaged ... 95% probabi…
$7.5M499,0002022-10-13 ↗2021-09-15
Philippinestropical-cycloneJun–DecRegion V (Bicol); Region VIII (Eastern Visayas); Region XIII (Caraga)superseded2023
Readiness Cyclone category / max sustained wind forecast (ECMWF): Potential to reach Category 3+ (>178 km/h 1-min / 158 km/h 10-m…
Action 510 Global modeled houses totally damaged (from ECMWF forecast tracks): 50% probability of 80,000 houses totally damage…
$7.5M2023-10-03 ↗pa-aa-phl-storms ↗2022-10-13
SomaliadroughtFeb, Jul–AugNationalretired20192020-06↗, 2021-02↗
Food-insecurity projection (single) FSNAU/FEWSNET IPC food-security projection: ≥20% of population projected at IPC Phase 3+ (corroborated by OCHA learning…
661,1662021 ↗
South SudanfloodUnity; Bentiuretired2022-052022-05↗
(no formal window — single risk-based anticipatory decision) none defined: none
$15.0M320,0002024-01-18 ↗
ChaddroughtMar–Jun, SepLac; Kanem; Bahr-El-Gazal; Sila; Wadi Fira; Batha; OuaddaïActive2025-03-032026-04↗, 2026-05↗
Window 1 — livelihoods (main harvest) SEAS5 pixel percentile rank, spatial 20th quantile over AOI: < 15th historical percentile
Window 2 — livelihoods (market garden & livestock) SEAS5 pixel percentile rank, spatial 20th quantile over AOI: < 15th historical percentile
Window 3 — early humanitarian impact ACF biomass trend-adjusted anomaly, AOI aggregate, dekad 24 (3rd decade Aug): < 84.5% of linear-fit prediction
$8.0M260,0002025-03-03 ↗ds-aa-tcd-drought ↗2022-10-24
ChadfloodJul–OctTD18; TD11Active2025-07-312024-09↗
Readiness (Mobilisation) GloFAS ensemble-mean discharge, Chari R. at N'Djamena: ≥ 4,542 m³/s
Action GloFAS ensemble-mean discharge, Chari R. at N'Djamena: ≥ 4,542 m³/s
$4.0M2025-07-31 ↗pa-aa-tcd-flooding ↗2024-09-26
Vanuatutropical-cycloneNov–AprSanma; Shefa; Tafeadevelopmentdevelopment
activation IBTrACS USA-radii pop. exposed to ≥64kt wind (AOI: Shefa, Sanma, Tafea) AND IMERG 2-day mean rainfall (country): not fi…
not publicds-aa-vut-cyclones ↗
YemenfloodApr–May, Jul–AugHajjah; Maribretired2023
Hajjah (Abs district AOI) CHIRPS-GEFS 3-day cumulative zonal mean: 24 mm
Marib (Ma'rib + Ma'rib City AOI) CHIRPS-GEFS 3-day cumulative zonal mean: 20 mm
$3.0Mnot publicpa-aa-yem-flooding ↗