Nepal — Flood development
Anticipatory action framework npl-flooding
🛠 The current version of this framework is an in-development redesign — not yet endorsed. Details below describe the design being built; the last endorsed design is under previous versions.🛠 La version actuelle de ce cadre est une refonte en cours de développement — pas encore approuvée. Les détails ci-dessous décrivent la conception en cours ; la dernière conception approuvée figure sous versions précédentes.
| Country | Nepal |
|---|---|
| Hazard | Flood |
| Monitoring period | Jun–Sep (Nepal monsoon flood season in the Koshi basin (Jun-Sep). Unchanged from the endorsed 2025 design; this dev work re-evaluates the forecast DATA SOURCE behind the existing readiness/action windows, not the season or the windows themselves. No live monitoring runs from this work.) |
| Area of interest | NPL/Koshi Province/Sunsari district — Chatara gauge, Koshi river (in scope of the endorsed 2025 framework); NPL/Karnali — Chisapani gauge, Karnali river (out of endorsed 2025 scope; carried for cross-source evaluation only) |
| Current version | draft-geoglows |
| Trigger windows | readiness GloFAS ensemble discharge at Chatara, ≥50% prob > RP5 (10,300 m³/s), 7-day lead action DHM 3-day flood-forecast bulletin (3 qualitative conditions) |
| Pre-arranged financing | — |
| Code repository | ds-aa-npl-flooding ↗ |
Activation history
Real activations of this framework: the public trigger announcement and the CERF allocation that funded the response, with the people targeted and reached that CERF reports for the allocation (reported ~9 months after disbursement).Activations réelles de ce cadre : l’annonce publique de déclenchement et l’allocation du CERF qui a financé la réponse, avec les personnes ciblées et atteintes rapportées par le CERF pour l’allocation (rapporté ~9 mois après le décaissement).
| Date | Window | Announcement | CERF allocation | CERF approved | People targeted | People reached |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10 | action (Koshi/Chatara) partial | announcement ↗ | 24-RR-NPL-65081 ↗ | $3.4M | 138,414 | 185,809 |
| Koshi river basin activation under this version (endorsed 2024-09-27, activated ~29 Sep-Oct 2024). $3.4M released from CERF within 6 minutes of the action trigger firing. WFP, UNICEF, FAO, UNFPA provided cash, WASH, food, and protection assistance to communities in Sunsari and Saptari districts. Press release dated 17 October 2024. | ||||||
| 2022-10 | action (Karnali/Chisapani) partial | announcement ↗ | 22-RR-NPL-53977 ↗ | $3.2M | 74,346 | 71,335 |
| First-ever activation of the Nepal AA pilot. Readiness trigger reached 2 Oct 2022 (Kailali/Bardiya/Banke flood warnings); action trigger reached 7 Oct 2022; river crossed the danger level at Chisapani 9 Oct 2022. CERF authorized $3.2M for UNFPA, UN Women and WFP to deliver cash, relief kits and health/GBV services ahead of peak flooding in Kailali, Bardiya and Banke districts. Also recorded on the 2025-08-25 page as a lessons-learned reference. | ||||||
| 2021-08-13 | readiness (Koshi/Chatara, east) partial | announcement ↗ | 21-RR-NPL-48553 ↗ | $3.2M | 0 | 0 |
| Readiness-only FALSE ALARM, first-ever trigger of the pilot. GloFAS showed a 73% chance of a 1-in-2-year flood at Chatara on 18 Aug; CERF initiated disbursement of $3.2M across the 5 pre-approved east-Nepal projects (application 21-RR-NPL-48553). The action trigger was never reached before the government declared the monsoon over (11 Oct); agencies distributed nothing, refunded 100% of action funds plus unused readiness funds, and zero beneficiaries were reached — a scenario envisaged in the pilot design. The west readiness trigger never fired. | ||||||
Trigger statistics (current version)
No published trigger statistics for this framework yet.
Previous versions
Earlier versions of this framework. Real activations listed here fired under that version's trigger design (details in the activation history above).Versions antérieures de ce cadre. Les activations réelles listées ici se sont déclenchées sous la conception de déclencheur de cette version (détails dans l’historique des activations ci-dessus).