Nigeria — Flood Active
Anticipatory action framework nga-flooding
| Country | Nigeria |
|---|---|
| Hazard | Flood |
| Monitoring period | Aug–Nov (Wet season Aug–Nov inferred from the wet-season annual-maxima calibration underlying ACTION_GAUGE_THRESHOLDS/READINESS_GLOFAS_THRESH in src/constants.py (comment cites exploration/2026/cerf/workflow/06_trigger_definition.ipynb, not present in this checkout — see discrepancies). Action (GRRR) and readiness (GloFAS, forecast OR reanalysis) riverine triggers both monitor any wet-season day; the NHF flash-flood window is observational over the same season.) |
| Area of interest | NG002001; NG002002; NG002005; NG002009; NG002016; NG002020; NG002021 |
| Current version | 2026-06-18 |
| Trigger windows | Adamawa action — riverine (Benue R.) Google-GRRR-multi-gauge-discharge (≥6 of 10 gauges simultaneously exceed 4-yr RP): Per-gauge 4-yr empirical Weibull RP (~1,101–1,117 m³/s for 9 gauges; 142.7 m³/s for outlier hybas_1120840690) — ACTION_GAUGE_THRESHOLDS/ACTION_MIN_GAUGES=6 in src/constants.py Adamawa readiness — GloFAS (forecast OR reanalysis) GloFAS-discharge at Wuroboki (G5004): ≥3,132 m³/s (READINESS_GLOFAS_THRESH) for both branches NHF flash flood — BAY states (4 retargeted LGAs) FloodScan×WorldPop population exposure per LGA, strict 3-day rolling mean (app.floodscan_exposure): Mobbar 14,720; Maiduguri 23,740; Jere 103,612; Geidam 5,501 people exposed (framework doc; validated ≈7.75-yr RP each, 3/28 exceedance years) |
| Pre-arranged financing | — |
| Code repository | ds-aa-nga-flooding ↗ |
Activation history
Real activations of this framework: the public trigger announcement and the CERF allocation that funded the response, with the people targeted and reached that CERF reports for the allocation (reported ~9 months after disbursement).Activations réelles de ce cadre : l’annonce publique de déclenchement et l’allocation du CERF qui a financé la réponse, avec les personnes ciblées et atteintes rapportées par le CERF pour l’allocation (rapporté ~9 mois après le décaissement).
| Date | Window | Announcement | CERF allocation | CERF approved | People targeted | People reached |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-08 | Riverine flooding — Adamawa 7 LGAs | announcement ↗ | CERF-NGA-25-RR-1475 ↗ | $5.0M | 246,907 | 0 |
| First and only activation of this framework. The riverine trigger thresholds were reached on 7 September 2025 (Anticipation Hub: 'the thresholds for acting, as set out in the framework, were reached on 7 September 2025, with the government's hydrological and meteorological agencies confirming the flood forecasts'); OCHA situation reports date the framework activation itself to 8 September, after the pre-agreed riverine trigger was crossed along the Benue River. This released the full USD 7M pre-arranged envelope (CERF USD 5M + NHF USD 2M) under NHF Scenario 1. Within ~72 hours WFP had delivered anticipatory multi-purpose cash to over 83,500 people across four Adamawa LGAs; ~350,000 people in the 7 target LGAs were TARGETED, and OCHA reported ~315,000 reached through awareness/preparedness campaigns and MPCA as of 22 September 2025. A national After-Activation Review was held in Yola, Adamawa, 25-27 November 2025. Fired under this (2025-08-11) version. Secondary source: https://www.anticipation-hub.org/news/the-un-and-partners-deliver-anticipatory-actions-ahead-of-floods-in-nigeria | ||||||
Trigger statistics (current version)
Analysis period 1998–2023. Split funding: each window has its own budget and fires independently. Backtested years are when each trigger would have fired in the historical record — not real activations.Les années backtest sont celles où chaque déclencheur se serait déclenché dans l’historique — pas des activations réelles.
| Window | Allocation | Return period | Probability | Backtested activation years |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Action | $5.0M | 4.5 years | 22% | 1998, 1999, 2003, 2012, 2019, 2022 |
| Overall (any window) | 4.5 years | 23% | ||
Previous versions
Earlier versions of this framework. Real activations listed here fired under that version's trigger design (details in the activation history above).Versions antérieures de ce cadre. Les activations réelles listées ici se sont déclenchées sous la conception de déclencheur de cette version (détails dans l’historique des activations ci-dessus).