Cuba — Tropical cyclone development
Anticipatory action framework cub-hurricanes
🛠 The current version of this framework is an in-development redesign — not yet endorsed. Details below describe the design being built; the last endorsed design is under previous versions.🛠 La version actuelle de ce cadre est une refonte en cours de développement — pas encore approuvée. Les détails ci-dessous décrivent la conception en cours ; la dernière conception approuvée figure sous versions précédentes.
| Country | Cuba |
|---|---|
| Hazard | Tropical cyclone |
| Monitoring period | Jun–Dec (North Atlantic hurricane season Jun 1 - Nov 30 (NOAA); monitoring extended to Dec 31 per CERF validity — same as endorsed version.) |
| Area of interest | — |
| Current version | 2026-06-17 |
| Trigger windows | Forecast (exposure-based) NHC wind-buffer pop. exposure at 34/50/64 kt (max total fcast = fcast + cummax obsv): TBD — optimization yields n=10 triggering storms (~2.6 yr RP) at 64 kt: several candidate thresholds explored; exact value not committed Observational (rainfall fallback) IMERG q80 2-day rainfall over Cuba: TBD — set deterministically as (n - n_exp)-th largest q80 among non-exposure-triggered storms |
| Pre-arranged financing | — |
| Code repository | ds-aa-cub-hurricanes ↗ |
Activation history
Real activations of this framework: the public trigger announcement and the CERF allocation that funded the response, with the people targeted and reached that CERF reports for the allocation (reported ~9 months after disbursement).Activations réelles de ce cadre : l’annonce publique de déclenchement et l’allocation du CERF qui a financé la réponse, avec les personnes ciblées et atteintes rapportées par le CERF pour l’allocation (rapporté ~9 mois après le décaissement).
| Date | Window | Announcement | CERF allocation | CERF approved | People targeted | People reached |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10 | Forecast (action) | announcement ↗ | CERF-CUB-25-RR-1478 ↗ | $4.0M | 170,000 | 185,000 |
| First-ever anticipatory-action activation in Cuba. Hurricane Melissa (AL132025) — NHC forecast showed Category-4 winds (≥120 kt) entering Cuba's ZMA ~5 days before impact, exceeding the action trigger threshold. CERF released ~USD 4M within minutes, pre-positioning supplies (tarpaulins, food, water-treatment tablets, hygiene kits, generators, medical/agricultural inputs) for ~170,000–180,000 people ahead of landfall (~29 Oct 2025). Fired under the 2025-08-26 endorsed version. | ||||||
Trigger statistics (current version)
Analysis period 2000–2024. Backtested years are when each trigger would have fired in the historical record — not real activations.Les années backtest sont celles où chaque déclencheur se serait déclenché dans l’historique — pas des activations réelles.
| Window | Return period | Probability | Backtested activation years |
|---|---|---|---|
| Action | 3.7 years | 27% | 2001, 2004, 2005, 2008, 2016, 2017, 2022 |
| Observational | 3.7 years | 27% | 2005, 2008 |
| Readiness | 3.7 years | 27% | 2001, 2004, 2005, 2008, 2016, 2017, 2022 |
| Overall (any window) | 3.7 years | 28% |
Previous versions
Earlier versions of this framework. Real activations listed here fired under that version's trigger design (details in the activation history above).Versions antérieures de ce cadre. Les activations réelles listées ici se sont déclenchées sous la conception de déclencheur de cette version (détails dans l’historique des activations ci-dessus).