Madagascar — Tropical cyclone recently triggered
Anticipatory action framework mdg-storms
| Country | Madagascar | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Hazard | Tropical cyclone | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Monitoring period | Nov–Apr (SW Indian Ocean cyclone season 1 Nov–30 Apr — stated in Summary/Method/Monitoring.) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Area of interest | National | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Current version | 2024-12-13 · valid until 2026 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Trigger windows | Readiness Wind speed forecast + distance to coast (Météo-Madagascar bulletin): ≥ 166 km/h (≈ 90 kt) forecast within 100 km of coast Action Wind speed forecast + distance to coast (Météo-Madagascar bulletin): ≥ 166 km/h (≈ 90 kt) forecast within 100 km of coast | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Pre-arranged financing | $3.0M (CERF $3.0M) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Budget by sector | Food Security & Livelihoods $0.9M · WASH $0.5M · Health $0.4M · Shelter/NFI $0.3M · Protection $0.3M · Education $0.3M · Logistics $0.1M · CCCM $0.1M · Early Warning Messaging $90,000 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Budget by agency | UNICEF $0.9M · WFP $0.8M · IOM $0.4M · WHO $0.3M · UNFPA $0.3M · FAO $0.3M Single CERF $3M table by sector and agency (12 agency-sector rows: IOM=Shelter/NFI 300k+CCCM 120k; UNICEF=Early Warning 90k+Education 270k+WASH 450k+Protection 90k; UNFPA=Protection 210k+Health 90k; WHO=Health 330k; WFP=Food Security 600k+Logistics 150k; FAO=Food Security 300k). Full breakdown as stated in the framework document (12 budget lines, $3,000,000)Ventilation complète telle qu’indiquée dans le document du cadre (12 lignes budgétaires, $3,000,000)
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| Framework document | 2024-12-13 ↗ | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Code repository | ds-aa-mdg-storms ↗ |
Activation history
Real activations of this framework: the public trigger announcement and the CERF allocation that funded the response, with the people targeted and reached that CERF reports for the allocation (reported ~9 months after disbursement).Activations réelles de ce cadre : l’annonce publique de déclenchement et l’allocation du CERF qui a financé la réponse, avec les personnes ciblées et atteintes rapportées par le CERF pour l’allocation (rapporté ~9 mois après le décaissement).
| Date | Window | Announcement | CERF allocation | CERF approved | People targeted | People reached |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-09 | readiness + action | announcement ↗ | CERF-MDG-24-RR-1434 ↗ | $3.0M | 67,773 | 0 |
| Cyclone Gezani — Madagascar's FIRST anticipatory action for cyclones. Framework triggered 9 Feb 2026 when Météo-Madagascar forecasts met the Scenario 3 threshold (intense TC, ≥166 km/h, within 100 km of coast). BOTH windows fired — the readiness trigger (72–120 h) followed by the action trigger (≤72 h) — per the CHD team (@t-downing); public sources evidence only the 9 Feb activation. The full US$3M pre-arranged CERF envelope was allocated to six UN agencies (IOM, UNICEF, UNFPA, WHO, WFP, FAO), targeting >93,000 vulnerable people; of that, **~US$900,000 was actually disbursed ~1 day ahead of landfall** (the figure OCHA/WFP/UNICEF flash updates report as 'released ahead of landfall'). Gezani made landfall near Toamasina/Tamatave on 10 Feb 2026 (~17:30 UTC) as an intense TC — 10-minute sustained winds ~180–195 km/h with gusts ~230–250 km/h (WMO reports ~180 km/h sustained / 230 km/h gusts; Météo-France La Réunion peak 195 km/h). Confirmed via OCHA Gezani flash updates (Feb 2026), WFP, UNICEF + the Anticipation Hub. | ||||||
Trigger statistics (current version)
Analysis period 1982–2026. Backtested years are when each trigger would have fired in the historical record — not real activations.Les années backtest sont celles où chaque déclencheur se serait déclenché dans l’historique — pas des activations réelles.
| Window | Return period | Probability | Backtested activation years |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trigger | 3.5 years | 29% | 1984, 1994, 2000, 2002, 2004, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2014, 2017, 2019, 2022, 2026 |
| Overall (any window) | 3.5 years | 29% |