Honduras — Drought recently triggered
Anticipatory action framework lac-dry-corridor
Part of the 3-country lac-dry-corridor framework — see also Fait partie du cadre lac-dry-corridor couvrant 3 pays — voir aussi Guatemala · El Salvador.
| Country | Honduras |
|---|---|
| Hazard | Drought |
| Monitoring period | Mar–May, Jul–Sep (Inferred from trigger windows: Primera (MJJA) checked on the 5th of Mar (LT3)/Apr (LT2)/May (LT1) all countries; Postrera (SON) checked Jul–Sep (GTM/HND), Aug–Sep (SLV). Months are SEAS5 publication/decision months, not the forecast valid season.) |
| Area of interest | El Paraíso (Texiguat, Vado Ancho), Francisco Morazán (Curarén, Alubarén, Reitoca) |
| Current version | 2026-03-13 · valid until 2027 |
| Trigger windows | Window A — Primera (MJJA) SEAS5 seasonal precip (mm) over priority departments: Per-leadtime RP thresholds (grid-searched); overall seasonal RP ≈ 1 in 3.5–3.9 yr Window B — Postrera (SON) SEAS5 seasonal precip (mm) over priority departments: Per-leadtime RP thresholds; overall seasonal RP ≈ 1 in 3.9–4.4 yr (GTM), ≈ 1 in 3.9 yr (HND, SLV) |
| Pre-arranged financing | $4.0M country envelope · framework total $10.5M (CERF $10.5M) |
| Budget by sector | Food Security $2.8M · WASH $0.4M · Health $0.4M · Nutrition $0.4M |
| Budget by agency | WFP $1.6M · FAO $1.2M · UNICEF $0.8M · PAHO $0.4M Both dicts cover ONLY the Guatemala country document ($4M CERF envelope) — the SLV and HND country docs (the remaining $6.5M of the framework's $10.5M CERF) are annexes not in the extract. Food Security $2.8M = WFP $320k in-kind + WFP $1.28M multipurpose cash + FAO $1.2M agriculture. Guatemala cofinancing $372,464 (WFP $337,000 + FAO $35,464) excluded. |
| Framework document | 2026-03-13 ↗ |
| Code repository | ds-aa-lac-dry-corridor ↗ |
Activation history
Real activations of this framework: the public trigger announcement and the CERF allocation that funded the response, with the people targeted and reached that CERF reports for the allocation (reported ~9 months after disbursement).Activations réelles de ce cadre : l’annonce publique de déclenchement et l’allocation du CERF qui a financé la réponse, avec les personnes ciblées et atteintes rapportées par le CERF pour l’allocation (rapporté ~9 mois après le décaissement).
| Date | Window | Announcement | CERF allocation | CERF approved | People targeted | People reached |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-05 | Window A (Primera 2026) | announcement ↗ | CERF-HND-26-RR-1520 ↗ | $4.0M | 65,000 | not yet reported |
| GTM + SLV + HND simultaneous three-country activation. ECMWF SEAS5 forecast for MJJA published 5 March 2026 reached the pre-agreed thresholds across the Dry Corridor frameworks. CERF released USD 4 million (GTM), USD 2.5 million (SLV) and USD 4 million (HND/Honduras) simultaneously — USD 10.5 million total for up to 145,000 people. First AA activation in both El Salvador and Honduras. GTM now covers four departments; SLV covers Ahuachapán and Santa Ana; HND covers El Paraíso and Francisco Morazán (up to 65,000 people). | ||||||
Trigger statistics (current version)
Analysis period 1991–2024. Split funding: each window has its own budget and fires independently. Backtested years are when each trigger would have fired in the historical record — not real activations.Les années backtest sont celles où chaque déclencheur se serait déclenché dans l’historique — pas des activations réelles.
| Window | Allocation | Return period | Probability | Backtested activation years |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Primera | $4.0M | 3.5 years | 33% | 1991, 1994, 1997, 2009, 2014, 2015, 2018, 2019, 2021, 2023 |
| Overall (any window) | 2.9 years | 34% | ||
Previous versions
Earlier versions of this framework. Real activations listed here fired under that version's trigger design (details in the activation history above).Versions antérieures de ce cadre. Les activations réelles listées ici se sont déclenchées sous la conception de déclencheur de cette version (détails dans l’historique des activations ci-dessus).
2025-02 superseded
Analysis period 1981–2024. Split funding: each window has its own budget and fires independently. Backtested years are when each trigger would have fired in the historical record — not real activations.Les années backtest sont celles où chaque déclencheur se serait déclenché dans l’historique — pas des activations réelles.
| Window | Allocation | Return period | Probability | Backtested activation years |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Primera | $4.0M | 3.0 years | 33% | 1985, 1986, 1989, 1990, 1991, 1994, 1997, 2006, 2009, 2014, 2015, 2018, 2019, 2021, 2023 |
| Overall (any window) | 2.4 years | 42% | ||