Bangladesh — Tropical cyclone Active
Anticipatory action framework bgd-cyclone
| Country | Bangladesh | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hazard | Tropical cyclone | |||||||||||||||
| Monitoring period | Apr–Jun, Oct–Nov (Bay of Bengal cyclone season — two peaks Apr–Jun and Oct–Nov, stated in Summary/Method/Monitoring.) | |||||||||||||||
| Area of interest | Barguna; Bhola; Patuakhali; Noakhali; Satkhira; Khulna | |||||||||||||||
| Current version | 2025-04-25 · valid until 2027-04-25 | |||||||||||||||
| Trigger windows | Stage I — Readiness ≥2 of 5 models forecast wind speed at union level: 118 km/h Stage II — Action ≥2 of 5 models forecast wind speed at union level; well-formed low pressure or depression formed in Bay: 118 km/h Stage III — Observational Observed wind at landfall (BMD/IMD) or ≥2 of {ECMWF, GFS, JTWC} consensus: 118 km/h | |||||||||||||||
| Pre-arranged financing | $4.0M (CERF $4.0M) | |||||||||||||||
| Budget by agency | WFP $2.1M · UNICEF $1.1M · FAO $0.5M · UNFPA $0.3M funding_by_agency covers the CERF $4M ONLY (the Financing-overview 'CERF Funding' column, Sec 4): FAO 500,000 + UNFPA 300,000 + UNICEF 1,100,000 + WFP 2,100,000 = 4,000,000 exactly. Partner co-funding is NOT in funding_by_agency/funding_by_source — it is cofinancing_usd + extra.cofinancing_by_source, per INGESTION.md and matching the sibling bgd-flooding 2025-04-25 page. No per-sector amounts usable (Annex 4's sector split is mis-attributed in both extractions — see discrepancies), so funding_by_sector stays {}. Full breakdown as stated in the framework document (4 budget lines, $4,000,000)Ventilation complète telle qu’indiquée dans le document du cadre (4 lignes budgétaires, $4,000,000)
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| Framework document | 2025-04-25 ↗ | |||||||||||||||
| Code repository | ds-aa-bgd-cyclone-monitoring ↗ |
Activation history
This framework has not activated.
Trigger statistics (current version)
Analysis period 1980–2025. Backtested years are when each trigger would have fired in the historical record — not real activations.Les années backtest sont celles où chaque déclencheur se serait déclenché dans l’historique — pas des activations réelles.
| Window | Return period | Probability | Backtested activation years |
|---|---|---|---|
| Window 1 | 6.7 years | 15% | 1991, 1994, 1995, 1997, 2004, 2007, 2020 |
| Window 2 | 6.7 years | 15% | 1991, 1994, 1995, 1997, 2004, 2007, 2020 |
| Overall (any window) | 6.7 years | 15% |