Niger — Flood recently triggered
Anticipatory action framework ner-flooding
| Country | Niger | ||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hazard | Flood | ||||||||||||||||||
| Monitoring period | Nov–Feb, Jul–Sep (Niger River floods twice: crue locale (Jul-Sep, local rainfall) and crue guinéenne (Nov-Feb, upstream Guinea/Mali rains); union of both seasonal windows. Framework activates only once per year in whichever fires first.) | ||||||||||||||||||
| Area of interest | Dosso; Tillabéri | ||||||||||||||||||
| Current version | 2025-11-04 · valid until 2027 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Trigger windows | mobilisation (crue locale Jul-Sep OR crue guinéenne Nov-Feb) ABN-Niamey-water-level-cm: 592 cm action (crue locale Jul-Sep OR crue guinéenne Nov-Feb) ABN-Niamey-water-level-cm: 604 cm | ||||||||||||||||||
| Pre-arranged financing | $5.0M (CERF $5.0M) | ||||||||||||||||||
| Budget by sector | Food Security & Livelihoods $2.2M · WASH $1.2M · Shelter/NFI $1.0M · Health $0.5M | ||||||||||||||||||
| Budget by agency | WFP $1.2M · UNICEF $1.2M · FAO $1.0M · IOM $1.0M · WHO $0.5M Both dicts cover the full CERF $5M (Tableau 1 by agency; Tableau 2 maps agencies to sectors — FAO+WFP under Food Security & Livelihoods, IOM under Shelter/NFI, UNICEF under WASH, WHO under Health). FAO SFERA ~$100k and WFP ~$100k pre-positioning co-financing excluded. Full breakdown as stated in the framework document (5 budget lines, $5,000,000)Ventilation complète telle qu’indiquée dans le document du cadre (5 lignes budgétaires, $5,000,000)
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| Target people | 109,156 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Framework document | 2025-11-04 ↗ | ||||||||||||||||||
| Code repository | pa-aa-ner-flooding ↗ |
Activation history
Real activations of this framework: the public trigger announcement and the CERF allocation that funded the response, with the people targeted and reached that CERF reports for the allocation (reported ~9 months after disbursement).Activations réelles de ce cadre : l’annonce publique de déclenchement et l’allocation du CERF qui a financé la réponse, avec les personnes ciblées et atteintes rapportées par le CERF pour l’allocation (rapporté ~9 mois après le décaissement).
| Date | Window | Announcement | CERF allocation | CERF approved | People targeted | People reached |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01 | crue guinéenne (Guinean flood, Nov-Feb season) | — | CERF-NER-25-RR-1492 ↗ | $5.0M | 93,289 | 0 |
| Activation in January 2026 under this endorsed (2025-11-04) version — the first activation of the revised framework. No public communications were issued for this activation; recorded here from internal/team knowledge (no ReliefWeb/CERF announcement to cite). Fired during the Nov–Feb crue guinéenne window. | ||||||
| 2024-11-28 | crue guinéenne (Guinean flood, Nov-Feb season) | announcement ↗ | CERF-NER-24-RR-1398 ↗ | $5.0M | 151,904 | 185,354 |
| ABN observed water level at Niamey station reached 580 cm threshold. This was the 2024 pilot activation under the 2024 framework (threshold 580 cm). README confirms activation; 2025 PDF mentions 2024 as a year when both local and Guinean flood action thresholds (604 cm) were reached — implying 2024 activation exceeded 604 cm. | ||||||
Trigger statistics (current version)
Analysis period 1979–2025. Split funding: each window has its own budget and fires independently. Backtested years are when each trigger would have fired in the historical record — not real activations.Les années backtest sont celles où chaque déclencheur se serait déclenché dans l’historique — pas des activations réelles.
| Window | Allocation | Return period | Probability | Backtested activation years |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Window 1 | $0.2M | 3.0 years | 34% | 1979, 1994, 1995, 1998, 1999, 2010, 2012, 2013, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2019, 2020, 2022, 2024, 2025 |
| Window 2 | $4.8M | 4.8 years | 21% | 1998, 1999, 2010, 2012, 2013, 2015, 2019, 2020, 2024, 2025 |
| Overall (any window) | 3.0 years | 34% | ||