Bangladesh — Flood Active
Anticipatory action framework bgd-flooding
| Country | Bangladesh | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Hazard | Flood | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Monitoring period | Jun–Sep (Bangladesh monsoon flood season; OCHA team monitors GloFAS/FFWC twice daily from June onward, covering the Jun-Sep monsoon peak in the Jamuna and Padma basins.) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Area of interest | Bogra; Jamalpur; Sirajganj; Gaibandha; Kurigram; Madaripur; Manikganj; Shariatpur | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Current version | 2025-04-25 · valid until 2026 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Trigger windows | Readiness GloFAS-discharge-probability at Bahadurabad: P(discharge > 1-in-5 RP) ≥ 50% for 3 consecutive days Action FFWC-water-level at Bahadurabad + GloFAS/RIMES trend at Bahadurabad: FFWC crosses DL+0.85 m AND GloFAS/RIMES sustained/increasing trend ≥ 3 consecutive days Readiness GloFAS-discharge-probability at Baruria transit (Goalando): P(discharge > 1-in-5 RP) ≥ 50% for 3 consecutive days Action FFWC-water-level at Mawa + GloFAS/RIMES trend at Baruria transit: FFWC crosses DL+0.5 m ("1-in-5 RP") AND GloFAS/RIMES sustained/increasing trend ≥ 3 consecutive days | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Pre-arranged financing | $6.0M (CERF $6.0M) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Budget by agency | WFP $4.2M · UNFPA $0.6M · FAO $0.6M · UNICEF $0.6M by-agency covers the CERF envelope only (Jamuna + Padma windows summed: FAO 400k+195,640; UNICEF 300k+277k; WFP 3M+1.2M); no per-sector amounts given. Co-financing ($3,993,055) sits outside: WFP $2M window co-fund plus partner totals BDRCS $441,950, BRAC $22,097, CARE $16,900, Concern Worldwide $250,000, Start Network $37,108, Save the Children $1,125,000, and one $100,000 row with no agency name in the table (unattributable). Full breakdown as stated in the framework document (7 budget lines, $6,002,640)Ventilation complète telle qu’indiquée dans le document du cadre (7 lignes budgétaires, $6,002,640)
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| Framework document | 2025-04-25 ↗ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Code repository | pa-aa-bgd-flooding ↗ |
Activation history
Real activations of this framework: the public trigger announcement and the CERF allocation that funded the response, with the people targeted and reached that CERF reports for the allocation (reported ~9 months after disbursement).Activations réelles de ce cadre : l’annonce publique de déclenchement et l’allocation du CERF qui a financé la réponse, avec les personnes ciblées et atteintes rapportées par le CERF pour l’allocation (rapporté ~9 mois après le décaissement).
| Date | Window | Announcement | CERF allocation | CERF approved | People targeted | People reached |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-07-01 | Jamuna readiness + action | announcement ↗ | 24-RR-BGD-65078 ↗ | $6.2M | 388,000 | 347,805 |
| Most recent activation as of July 2024 per PDF. Disbursed $6.2M from CERF and $2.3M from partners. | ||||||
| 2020-07-04 | Jamuna pre-activation + activation | announcement ↗ | — | — | — | — |
| ONLY activation of this pilot version. Endorsed 2020-06-25/26 by the Resident Coordinator and the Emergency Relief Coordinator; triggered ~2 weeks ahead of the mid-to-late-July 2020 Jamuna flood peak. CERF funding of USD 5.2M (itemized in the allocation report as FAO USD 500,000, WFP USD 4,250,000 including a subgrant to BDRCS, and UNFPA USD 589,084 -- sums to USD 5,339,084) was released and spending authority given to agencies within four hours of the trigger being reached, reported as CERF's fastest-ever allocation. Reached 321,715 people (110,316 women; 99,188 men; 39,210 girls; 38,772 boys) against an original CERF-project plan of 390,000, via unconditional cash (WFP/BDRCS, USD 53/household to 61,500 households), livestock protection and flood-proof storage (FAO, 14,000 households), and SRHR/GBV/psychosocial services (UNFPA, ~15,000 women and girls). | ||||||
| 2020-07-01 | Jamuna readiness + action | announcement ↗ | 20-RR-BGD-44022 ↗ | $5.2M | 389,956 | 321,715 |
| First OCHA-coordinated activation; exact date approximate. CERF funds disbursed. | ||||||
Trigger statistics (current version)
Analysis period 1981–2025. Split funding: each window has its own budget and fires independently. Backtested years are when each trigger would have fired in the historical record — not real activations.Les années backtest sont celles où chaque déclencheur se serait déclenché dans l’historique — pas des activations réelles.
| Window | Allocation | Return period | Probability | Backtested activation years |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Window 1 | $4.3M | 4.6 years | 22% | 1988, 1996, 1999, 2007, 2012, 2016, 2017, 2019, 2020, 2024 |
| Window 2 | $1.7M | 23.0 years | 4% | 2004, 2020 |
| Overall (any window) | 4.2 years | 24% | ||
Previous versions
Earlier versions of this framework. Real activations listed here fired under that version's trigger design (details in the activation history above).Versions antérieures de ce cadre. Les activations réelles listées ici se sont déclenchées sous la conception de déclencheur de cette version (détails dans l’historique des activations ci-dessus).