Philippines — Tropical cyclone recently triggered
Anticipatory action framework phl-storms
| Country | Philippines |
|---|---|
| Hazard | Tropical cyclone |
| Monitoring period | Jun–Dec (Philippine TC season peak (Jun–Dec); inferred from basin seasonality. Page states no explicit monitoring-season window (the Nov-2025 Fung-Wong activation fell in this span).) |
| Area of interest | Bicol (R5); Eastern Visayas (R8); Caraga (R13) |
| Current version | 2025-10-03 · valid until 2027-01 |
| Trigger windows | readiness "ECMWF-wind-forecast: max 10-min sustained wind speed": ≥177 km/h (or ≥200 km/h 1-min) projected to impact Region 5, 8, or 13 action "510-model-houses-totally-damaged": Per-region matrix (e.g. Region 5: 50%@25k, 60%@15k, 70%@10k, 80%@6k, 95%@2.5k; Region 8: 50%@20k…; Region 13: 50%@30k…) — see table in Method observational "PAGASA-sustained-windspeed": Super typhoon ≥185 km/h (10-min); ≥50% of target region within damaging winds; used only if forecast/action triggers not met |
| Pre-arranged financing | $6.0M (CERF $6.0M) |
| Target people | 955,502 |
| Framework document | 2025-10-03 ↗ |
| Code repository | pa-aa-phl-storms ↗ |
Activation history
Real activations of this framework: the public trigger announcement and the CERF allocation that funded the response, with the people targeted and reached that CERF reports for the allocation (reported ~9 months after disbursement).Activations réelles de ce cadre : l’annonce publique de déclenchement et l’allocation du CERF qui a financé la réponse, avec les personnes ciblées et atteintes rapportées par le CERF pour l’allocation (rapporté ~9 mois après le décaissement).
| Date | Window | Announcement | CERF allocation | CERF approved | People targeted | People reached |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-06 | observational | announcement ↗ | CERF-PHL-25-RR-1485 ↗ | $5.9M | 332,957 | 254,832 |
| CERF AA observational trigger activated ~3 days before landfall for Super Typhoon Fung-Wong (local name Uwan) when forecast 10-min sustained wind speed exceeded the 185 km/h super-typhoon threshold (PAGASA). CERF released ~US$5.95 million to five UN agencies (FAO, IOM, WFP, UNICEF, UNFPA). Activation initially targeted northern Luzon — an area OUTSIDE the framework's three standard CERF regions (5/8/13) — reflecting the observational pathway's discretion to follow the storm. Activated under THIS 2025 framework (not the 2024 version). | ||||||
Trigger statistics (current version)
Analysis period 2007–2025. Backtested years are when each trigger would have fired in the historical record — not real activations.Les années backtest sont celles où chaque déclencheur se serait déclenché dans l’historique — pas des activations réelles.
| Window | Return period | Probability | Backtested activation years |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trigger | 2.9 years | 37% | 2012, 2013, 2016, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2025 |
| Overall (any window) | 2.9 years | 37% |
Previous versions
Earlier versions of this framework. Real activations listed here fired under that version's trigger design (details in the activation history above).Versions antérieures de ce cadre. Les activations réelles listées ici se sont déclenchées sous la conception de déclencheur de cette version (détails dans l’historique des activations ci-dessus).