Niger — Drought development
Anticipatory action framework ner-drought
🛠 The current version of this framework is an in-development redesign — not yet endorsed. Details below describe the design being built; the last endorsed design is under previous versions.🛠 La version actuelle de ce cadre est une refonte en cours de développement — pas encore approuvée. Les détails ci-dessous décrivent la conception en cours ; la dernière conception approuvée figure sous versions précédentes.
| Country | Niger |
|---|---|
| Hazard | Drought |
| Monitoring period | Feb–Jun, Aug (Months in which an activation DECISION can fire. The forecast arm needs two consecutive months over threshold (Jan+Feb … May+Jun), so the earliest possible trigger is February even though IRI issues forecasts and updates the Maproom from January; the observational arm reports Jun–Jul SPI/rainfall in August. Both the endorsed 2024-10-24 PDF ('chaque mois entre février et juin pour les prévisions, et en août pour le SPI') and the app NOTEBOOK's own window comment (exploration/rolling_threshold_marimo.py, verified at dbdc180: 'Window 1 = Jan+Feb, Feb+Mar (decisions Feb–Mar); Window 2 = Mar+Apr, Apr+May, May+Jun (decisions Apr–Jun)') put decisions in Feb–Jun + Aug. NB that comment and the W1/W2 columns are in the notebook source and the committed static snapshot only — NOT in the deployed interactive export, which predates them (see the [stale] deployed-export discrepancy). Both candidate redesigns keep these same decision months, and this matches the endorsed 2024-10-24 page's own [2,3,4,5,6,8] (re-checked 2026-08-04 — the two pages agree).) |
| Area of interest | south-of-17N-zone |
| Current version | 2026-06-03 |
| Trigger windows | Window 1 "save the harvest" IRI below-avg JAS prob (rolling 10-yr reference): top 35% of reference window (app default) Window 2 (forecast path) IRI below-avg JAS prob (rolling 10-yr reference): top 35% of reference window (app default) Window 2 (observational path) "Aug" column: bottom 15% of full record (app default; endorsed PDF states lowest 35% — unresolved) |
| Pre-arranged financing | — |
| Code repository | ds-aa-ner-drought ↗ |
Activation history
Real activations of this framework: the public trigger announcement and the CERF allocation that funded the response, with the people targeted and reached that CERF reports for the allocation (reported ~9 months after disbursement).Activations réelles de ce cadre : l’annonce publique de déclenchement et l’allocation du CERF qui a financé la réponse, avec les personnes ciblées et atteintes rapportées par le CERF pour l’allocation (rapporté ~9 mois après le décaissement).
| Date | Window | Announcement | CERF allocation | CERF approved | People targeted | People reached |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-08 | pilot (Window 2 observational path) | announcement ↗ | 22-RR-NER-54991 ↗ | $9.5M | 151,656 | 160,069 |
| Pilot framework activated August 2022 (real, predates this 2024 version — occurred under the 2022-08-04 pilot version). Jun–Jul 2022 SPI in south-west Niger among the lowest in 30 years triggered the observational arm; ~USD 9.5M approved by the CERF Emergency Relief Coordinator (application 22-RR-NER-54991; the team DB figure carried in the repo's CERF-RR panel is $9,513,802); ~160,069 people assisted. | ||||||
Trigger statistics (current version)
Analysis period 1998–2024. Split funding: each window has its own budget and fires independently. Backtested years are when each trigger would have fired in the historical record — not real activations.Les années backtest sont celles où chaque déclencheur se serait déclenché dans l’historique — pas des activations réelles.
| Window | Allocation | Return period | Probability | Backtested activation years |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Window 1 | $5.2M | 9.3 years | 11% | 2001, 2002, 2004 |
| Window 2 | $9.6M | 3.5 years | 29% | 2001, 2002, 2004, 2006, 2009, 2013, 2015, 2022 |
| Overall (any window) | 3.5 years | 29% | ||
Previous versions
Earlier versions of this framework. Real activations listed here fired under that version's trigger design (details in the activation history above).Versions antérieures de ce cadre. Les activations réelles listées ici se sont déclenchées sous la conception de déclencheur de cette version (détails dans l’historique des activations ci-dessus).