Chad — Flood Active
Anticipatory action framework tcd-flooding
| Country | Chad | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hazard | Flood | |||||||||||||||
| Monitoring period | Jul–Oct (Chari River flood season at N'Djamena; daily GloFAS monitoring runs from July onward, with the Chari peaking Sep-Oct (2024 activation 28 Sep). GloFAS reanalysis leads the observed peak by ~31 days.) | |||||||||||||||
| Area of interest | TD18; TD11 | |||||||||||||||
| Current version | 2025-07-31 · valid until 2026 | |||||||||||||||
| Trigger windows | Readiness (Mobilisation) GloFAS ensemble-mean discharge, Chari R. at N'Djamena: ≥ 4,542 m³/s Action GloFAS ensemble-mean discharge, Chari R. at N'Djamena: ≥ 4,542 m³/s | |||||||||||||||
| Pre-arranged financing | $4.0M (CERF $4.0M) | |||||||||||||||
| Budget by sector | Food Security $2.0M · Shelter/NFI $1.0M · WASH $1.0M | |||||||||||||||
| Budget by agency | FAO $1.1M · UNHCR $1.0M · UNICEF $1.0M · WFP $0.9M Both dicts cover the full $4M CERF envelope; UNHCR=Shelter/NFI, UNICEF=WASH, FAO ($1.1M) + WFP ($0.9M) = Food Security ($2M); additional 2025 donor resources flagged by WFP/UNICEF/UNHCR are uncommitted and excluded. Full breakdown as stated in the framework document (4 budget lines, $4,000,000)Ventilation complète telle qu’indiquée dans le document du cadre (4 lignes budgétaires, $4,000,000)
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| Framework document | 2025-07-31 ↗ | |||||||||||||||
| Code repository | pa-aa-tcd-flooding ↗ |
Activation history
Real activations of this framework: the public trigger announcement and the CERF allocation that funded the response, with the people targeted and reached that CERF reports for the allocation (reported ~9 months after disbursement).Activations réelles de ce cadre : l’annonce publique de déclenchement et l’allocation du CERF qui a financé la réponse, avec les personnes ciblées et atteintes rapportées par le CERF pour l’allocation (rapporté ~9 mois après le décaissement).
| Date | Window | Announcement | CERF allocation | CERF approved | People targeted | People reached |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-28 | unknown — which window(s) fired not documented; pre-revision (2024-09-26) framework | announcement ↗ | CERF-TCD-24-RR-1420 ↗ | $5.0M | 128,003 | 177,043 |
| Confirmed activation in the 2024 flood season; the repo README records '_Update 2024-09-28_: framework has been activated based on GloFAS forecasts.' This activation was against the original 2024-09-26 version (N'Djamena only, 7 agencies). It triggered the 2025 revision: adding Mayo-Kebbi Est province and removing WHO, UNFPA, IOM. The exact window and disbursement amount are not documented in the repo or the PDF. | ||||||
Trigger statistics (current version)
Analysis period 2003–2023. Split funding: each window has its own budget and fires independently. Backtested years are when each trigger would have fired in the historical record — not real activations.Les années backtest sont celles où chaque déclencheur se serait déclenché dans l’historique — pas des activations réelles.
| Window | Allocation | Return period | Probability | Backtested activation years |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Action | $0.2M | 4.0 years | 25% | 2003, 2005, 2007, 2010, 2012, 2018, 2022 |
| Readiness | $4.8M | 3.0 years | 33% | 2003, 2005, 2010, 2012, 2022 |
| Overall (any window) | 3.0 years | 33% | ||