Mauritania — Drought recently triggered
Anticipatory action framework mrt-drought
| Country | Mauritania | ||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hazard | Drought | ||||||||||||||||||
| Monitoring period | Feb–May, Jul–Aug (Inferred from trigger windows: Window 1 (forecast) checks the JAS Maproom monthly Feb–May (two-consecutive-month rule can fire end-Mar/Apr/May); Window 2 (observational) checks cumulative CHIRPS 2nd-dekad Jul through 3rd-dekad Aug. Months are check/decision months, not the JAS forecast season.) | ||||||||||||||||||
| Area of interest | MR10 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Current version | 2026-04-17 · valid until 2027 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Trigger windows | Window 1 — Forecast (Feb–May) ONM JAS seasonal forecast (NCDP Maproom v8), top-45% drought years across Mauritania, two consecutive issue months: 45th percentile (worst drought) in NCDP Maproom Window 2 — Observational (Jul–Aug) Cumulative CHIRPS national-average rainfall since 1 July vs dekad thresholds: 2nd Jul=6.6mm, 3rd Jul=13.6mm, 1st Aug=22.6mm, 2nd Aug=31.9mm, 3rd Aug=41.7mm: Dekad-specific (see above) | ||||||||||||||||||
| Pre-arranged financing | $2.5M (CERF $2.5M) | ||||||||||||||||||
| Budget by sector | Food Security (window 1) / Nutrition (window 2) $0.9M · Food Security $0.5M · WASH $0.4M · Nutrition $0.4M · Multi-Sector (community engagement) $0.2M | ||||||||||||||||||
| Budget by agency | WFP $0.9M · UNICEF $0.8M · FAO $0.5M · IOM $0.2M Both dicts cover the full CERF $2.5M. WFP's $950k envelope is one budget whose sector depends on which window fires (Food Security if W1, Nutrition top-up if W2) — kept combined. UNICEF has two rows (WASH $400k + Nutrition $400k). Co-financing (WFP PAA, CRM PAP) mentioned without amounts. Full breakdown as stated in the framework document (5 budget lines, $2,500,000)Ventilation complète telle qu’indiquée dans le document du cadre (5 lignes budgétaires, $2,500,000)
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| Framework document | 2026-04-17 ↗ | ||||||||||||||||||
| Code repository | ds-aa-mrt-drought ↗ |
Activation history
Real activations of this framework: the public trigger announcement and the CERF allocation that funded the response, with the people targeted and reached that CERF reports for the allocation (reported ~9 months after disbursement).Activations réelles de ce cadre : l’annonce publique de déclenchement et l’allocation du CERF qui a financé la réponse, avec les personnes ciblées et atteintes rapportées par le CERF pour l’allocation (rapporté ~9 mois après le décaissement).
| Date | Window | Announcement | CERF allocation | CERF approved | People targeted | People reached |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05 | Window 1 — Forecast (Feb–May) | announcement ↗ | CERF-MRT-26-RR-1526 ↗ | $2.5M | 120,621 | not yet reported |
| First activation, in the framework's first (2026) season. The Window-1 forecast trigger (ONM JAS seasonal forecast, two consecutive issue months in the worst-drought band) fired. Window 1 is all-in — firing releases the full USD 2.5M CERF envelope — so this is a full framework activation. PUBLICLY CONFIRMED (OCHA news, 3 Jun 2026): USD 2.5M CERF released ahead of projected severe drought, FAO/WFP/UNICEF + partners, ~120,000 people — early-warning messaging, drought-resistant seeds, cash, livestock feed, child-malnutrition prevention. Trigger month May 2026 (allocation announced 3 June). | ||||||
Trigger statistics (current version)
Analysis period 2001–2025. All-in: the whole envelope releases on any trigger. Backtested years are when each trigger would have fired in the historical record — not real activations.Les années backtest sont celles où chaque déclencheur se serait déclenché dans l’historique — pas des activations réelles.
| Window | Return period | Probability | Backtested activation years |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forecast | 6.5 years | 15% | 2001, 2011, 2014, 2015 |
| Observational | 5.2 years | 19% | 2002, 2011, 2014, 2017, 2019 |
| Overall (any window) | 3.7 years | 27% |