Haiti — Tropical cyclone development
Anticipatory action framework hti-hurricanes
🛠 The current version of this framework is an in-development redesign — not yet endorsed. Details below describe the design being built; the last endorsed design is under previous versions.🛠 La version actuelle de ce cadre est une refonte en cours de développement — pas encore approuvée. Les détails ci-dessous décrivent la conception en cours ; la dernière conception approuvée figure sous versions précédentes.
| Country | Haiti |
|---|---|
| Hazard | Tropical cyclone |
| Monitoring period | Jun–Nov (North Atlantic hurricane season Jun-Nov; same as endorsed v1. Dev design retains the same season span.) |
| Area of interest | National |
| Current version | 2026-06-09 |
| Trigger windows | forecast wind exposure (≥64 kt pop) OR forecast 2-day rain OR NHC Hurricane Warning for Haiti: optimised by 2D sweep (exp threshold computed dynamically; ~2.1 yr RP over all conditions) observed observed-only ≥64 kt wind exposure OR observed 2-day rolling rainfall ≥ threshold: same exposure threshold as forecast window; observed-rain threshold optimised as residual (deterministic from remaining slots after forecast conditions are counted) |
| Pre-arranged financing | — |
| Code repository | ds-aa-hti-hurricanes ↗ |
Activation history
Real activations of this framework: the public trigger announcement and the CERF allocation that funded the response, with the people targeted and reached that CERF reports for the allocation (reported ~9 months after disbursement).Activations réelles de ce cadre : l’annonce publique de déclenchement et l’allocation du CERF qui a financé la réponse, avec les personnes ciblées et atteintes rapportées par le CERF pour l’allocation (rapporté ~9 mois après le décaissement).
| Date | Window | Announcement | CERF allocation | CERF approved | People targeted | People reached |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-21 | readiness (21 Oct) + action (22 Oct) | announcement ↗ | CERF-HTI-24-RR-1399 ↗ | $4.0M | 82,635 | 92,690 |
| Activated for Hurricane Melissa (Category 5). Per the monitoring record (blob ds-aa-hti-hurricanes/monitoring/hti_fcast_monitoring.parquet — the v1 monitoring pipeline that was live at the time, since removed from main), the READINESS trigger first fired on the 2025-10-21 15:00 UTC NHC advisory (~4.9 days to forecast closest approach); the ACTION trigger followed on the 2025-10-22 09:00 UTC advisory (~2.9 days). Within one hour of the 21 Oct activation the pre-agreed USD 4M CERF envelope was released to WFP, UNICEF and IOM to support >100,000 people in Haiti's high-risk southern areas (OCHA, 19 Nov 2025; corroborated by CERF, 'CERF at the forefront of anticipatory action', which states the framework 'was activated for hurricane Melissa on 21 October 2025, leading to the disbursement of $4 million to support more than 100,000 people'). The OCHA article dates the release to 21 Oct, i.e. the readiness firing, but describes it as the ~3-day forecast — conflating the two windows. WFP reports that, with its support, the Government sent out 3.5 million early-warning messages ahead of the storm, and that WFP made anticipatory cash transfers to at-risk families (no dollar amount or beneficiary count published). Melissa then stalled south of Haiti: main impact (heavy rain/flooding in the southern departments, incl. Petit-Goâve) built ~24-28 Oct, so realized lead time from first activation to main impact was ~3-4 days. Fired under the 2024-08-23 endorsed (v1) version — this was also the event that triggered the melissa-exposure redesign work now on `main` (see 2026-06-09.md). | ||||||
Trigger statistics (current version)
Analysis period 2002–2024. Backtested years are when each trigger would have fired in the historical record — not real activations.Les années backtest sont celles où chaque déclencheur se serait déclenché dans l’historique — pas des activations réelles.
| Window | Return period | Probability | Backtested activation years |
|---|---|---|---|
| Action | 3.0 years | 33% | 2005, 2008, 2010, 2012, 2016, 2017, 2021, 2025 |
| Observational | 3.4 years | 27% | 2002, 2006, 2008, 2010, 2012, 2016, 2025 |
| Readiness | 3.0 years | 33% | 2005, 2008, 2010, 2012, 2016, 2017, 2021, 2025 |
| Overall (any window) | 2.4 years | 42% |
Previous versions
Earlier versions of this framework. Real activations listed here fired under that version's trigger design (details in the activation history above).Versions antérieures de ce cadre. Les activations réelles listées ici se sont déclenchées sous la conception de déclencheur de cette version (détails dans l’historique des activations ci-dessus).