Afghanistan — Drought Active
Anticipatory action framework afg-drought
| Country | Afghanistan | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Hazard | Drought | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Monitoring period | Mar–Apr (Window A decided early March on the SEAS5 March-issued MAM forecast; Window B decided early April on the CDI (ERA5 March obs + FAO March dekad-3 + SEAS5 April forecast). Inferred from Trigger windows issue/check months, not the MAM period forecast about.) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Area of interest | Balkh; Faryab; Jawzjan; Sar-e-Pul; Badghis | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Current version | 2026-04-04 · valid until 2027 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Trigger windows | Window A (March) SEAS5 MAM precipitation forecast (area-weighted, 5 provinces): ≤ 129 mm Window B (April) CDI = weighted average of z-scored: FAO ASI (March dekad 3, 20.6%), blended ERA5 obs/SEAS5 forecast precipitation (27.6%), FAO VHI (March dekad 3, 19.2%), ERA5-Land snow cover (March, 20.5%), ERA5 1-m soil moisture (March, 12.1%): ≥ 0.503 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Pre-arranged financing | $22.0M (CERF $12.0M, AHF $10.0M) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Budget by sector | Multi-Sector/MPCA $11.0M · Agriculture & Livelihoods $4.2M · Health & Nutrition $3.7M · WASH $2.2M · Protection $0.9M | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Budget by agency | WFP $7.0M · FAO $3.2M · UNICEF $1.0M · UNFPA $0.8M by-sector covers the full $22M (CERF+AHF), aggregated per the doc's own narrative grouping; by-agency covers the CERF $12M only — the AHF $10M goes to 10 NGOs (5 INGO + 5 NNGO) selected after Advisory Board review, so excluded. The $6.02M MPCA row is WFP (captions mis-attribute it to UNICEF); the Health-SRH $375K row is UNFPA. Full breakdown as stated in the framework document (12 budget lines, $22,000,000)Ventilation complète telle qu’indiquée dans le document du cadre (12 lignes budgétaires, $22,000,000)
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| Target people | 390,275 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Framework document | 2026-04-04 ↗ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Code repository | ds-aa-afg-drought ↗ |
Activation history
Real activations of this framework: the public trigger announcement and the CERF allocation that funded the response, with the people targeted and reached that CERF reports for the allocation (reported ~9 months after disbursement).Activations réelles de ce cadre : l’annonce publique de déclenchement et l’allocation du CERF qui a financé la réponse, avec les personnes ciblées et atteintes rapportées par le CERF pour l’allocation (rapporté ~9 mois après le décaissement).
| Date | Window | Announcement | CERF allocation | CERF approved | People targeted | People reached |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04 | Window B (CDI) | announcement ↗ | CERF-AFG-25-RR-1464 ↗ | $6.7M | 217,996 | 281,247 |
| 2025 pilot framework (3 provinces, per-province CDI thresholds). Window B fired in April 2025 triggering the full allocation. Confirmed by PDF executive summary and repo commit d3f6cef updating historical activation record. | ||||||
Trigger statistics (current version)
Analysis period 1984–2024. Split funding: each window has its own budget and fires independently. Backtested years are when each trigger would have fired in the historical record — not real activations.Les années backtest sont celles où chaque déclencheur se serait déclenché dans l’historique — pas des activations réelles.
| Window | Allocation | Return period | Probability | Backtested activation years |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Window A | $3.4M | 6.1 years | 16% | 1985, 2000, 2001, 2004, 2006, 2008, 2018 |
| Window B | $6.6M | 3.9 years | 26% | 2000, 2001, 2004, 2006, 2008, 2011, 2018, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2025 |
| Overall (any window) | 3.9 years | 26% | ||
Previous versions
Earlier versions of this framework. Real activations listed here fired under that version's trigger design (details in the activation history above).Versions antérieures de ce cadre. Les activations réelles listées ici se sont déclenchées sous la conception de déclencheur de cette version (détails dans l’historique des activations ci-dessus).
2025 prior
Analysis period 1984–2024. Split funding: each window has its own budget and fires independently. Backtested years are when each trigger would have fired in the historical record — not real activations.Les années backtest sont celles où chaque déclencheur se serait déclenché dans l’historique — pas des activations réelles.
| Window | Allocation | Return period | Probability | Backtested activation years |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Window A | $3.4M | 3.2 years | 31% | 1984, 1985, 1986, 1988, 1989, 2001, 2008, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2018, 2021, 2022 |
| Window B | $6.6M | 3.5 years | 29% | 1986, 1989, 2000, 2001, 2004, 2006, 2008, 2011, 2018, 2021, 2022, 2023 |
| Overall (any window) | 2.3 years | 43% | ||