Kenya — Drought development
Anticipatory action framework ken-drought
🛠 The current version of this framework is an in-development redesign — not yet endorsed. Details below describe the design being built; the last endorsed design is under previous versions.🛠 La version actuelle de ce cadre est une refonte en cours de développement — pas encore approuvée. Les détails ci-dessous décrivent la conception en cours ; la dernière conception approuvée figure sous versions précédentes.
| Country | Kenya |
|---|---|
| Hazard | Drought |
| Monitoring period | Jul–Sep (Single OND activation window with three KMD OND-forecast issuance checkpoints in July, August, and September (any can fire the same release). Inferred from Trigger windows issue months / lead times, not the OND period forecast about.) |
| Area of interest | KE001; KE007; KE009; KE011; KE023; KE026; KE028; KE036; KE038; KE039 |
| Current version | 2023-02-19 |
| Trigger windows | OND-July-checkpoint "KMD SPI-OND < -0.98 prob" (EAP); "KMD CPT below-normal prob" (repo: 40%/35% IOD-adjusted): EAP: ≥33% in ≥3 of 23 ASAL counties; repo RP5: ≥40% (non-neg IOD) / ≥35% (neg IOD) OND-August-checkpoint same: EAP: ≥33% in ≥3 of 23 ASAL counties; repo RP5: same IOD thresholds OND-September-checkpoint same: EAP: ≥33% in ≥3 of 23 ASAL counties; repo RP5: same IOD thresholds |
| Pre-arranged financing | — |
| Code repository | ds-aa-ken-drought ↗ |
Activation history
This framework has not activated.
Trigger statistics (current version)
Analysis period 2005–2016. All-in: the whole envelope releases on any trigger. Backtested years are when each trigger would have fired in the historical record — not real activations.Les années backtest sont celles où chaque déclencheur se serait déclenché dans l’historique — pas des activations réelles.
| Window | Return period | Probability | Backtested activation years |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forecast (1-in-3 year) | 4.3 years | 25% | 2005, 2010, 2016 |
| Forecast (1-in-5 year) | 4.3 years | 25% | 2005, 2010, 2016 |
| Overall (any window) | 4.3 years | 25% |