Mozambique — Tropical cyclone recently triggered
Anticipatory action framework moz-cyclones
| Country | Mozambique | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hazard | Tropical cyclone | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Monitoring period | Nov–Apr (SW Indian Ocean cyclone season (~Nov–Apr); inferred from basin seasonality. Page references 'two seasons' of CERF pre-arrangement but does not state explicit season months.) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Area of interest | Cabo Delgado; Nampula; Zambezia; Sofala; Inhambane; Gaza; Maputo; Maputo City | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Current version | 2026-01-09 · valid until 2027 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Trigger windows | Readiness windspeed exposed-area: ≥ 119 km/h over a coastal province Action windspeed exposed-area: ≥ 119 km/h over a coastal province Observational (wind) windspeed at landfall: ≥ 119 km/h Observational (rain) 3-day province rain (IMERG): > 120 mm | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Pre-arranged financing | $4.5M (CERF $4.5M) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Budget by sector | Food Security $1.3M · Shelter/NFI $0.8M · WASH $0.8M · Health $0.5M · GBV $0.3M · SRH $0.3M · Protection $0.3M · CCCM $0.2M · Logistics $50,000 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Budget by agency | WFP $1.4M · UNICEF $1.2M · IOM $1.1M · UNFPA $0.6M · UNHCR $0.3M Both dicts cover the CERF $4.5M only (Table 3). Agency co-funding of $1,172,074 and the Mozambique Red Cross DREF-backed EAP ($500k) are excluded. Agency mapping: IOM=Shelter/NFI+CCCM, UNFPA=GBV+SRH, UNICEF=WASH+Health, UNHCR=Protection, WFP=Food Security+Logistics. Full breakdown as stated in the framework document (9 budget lines, $4,500,000)Ventilation complète telle qu’indiquée dans le document du cadre (9 lignes budgétaires, $4,500,000)
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| Framework document | 2026-01-09 ↗ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Code repository | ds-aa-moz-cyclones ↗ |
Activation history
Real activations of this framework: the public trigger announcement and the CERF allocation that funded the response, with the people targeted and reached that CERF reports for the allocation (reported ~9 months after disbursement).Activations réelles de ce cadre : l’annonce publique de déclenchement et l’allocation du CERF qui a financé la réponse, avec les personnes ciblées et atteintes rapportées par le CERF pour l’allocation (rapporté ~9 mois après le décaissement).
| Date | Window | Announcement | CERF allocation | CERF approved | People targeted | People reached |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-09 | readiness + action (forecast) | announcement ↗ | CERF-MOZ-26-RR-1513 ↗ | $4.5M | 314,910 | not yet reported |
| Tropical Cyclone Gezani — fully activated 9 Feb 2026 on Météo-France La Réunion forecasts (same storm and day as the mdg-storms activation). Gezani weakened and turned before landfall, so impact was limited (near-miss per the CERF summary). CERF application CERF-MOZ-26-RR-1513: USD 4.5M approved, under implementation. | ||||||
| 2025-03-08 | readiness + action (forecast) | announcement ↗ | CERF-MOZ-24-RR-1438 ↗ | $6.1M | 291,533 | 285,604 |
| Cyclone Jude. Pre-agreed triggers met 8 Mar 2025 ahead of forecast landfall 10 Mar as a severe tropical cyclone in Nampula province. Fired under the PRIOR (2024/25-season) framework version, pre-arranged Dec 2024 — that version has no KB page yet. CERF application CERF-MOZ-24-RR-1438: USD 6.05M approved, 285,604 people reached. | ||||||
Trigger statistics (current version)
Analysis period 1980–2024. Backtested years are when each trigger would have fired in the historical record — not real activations.Les années backtest sont celles où chaque déclencheur se serait déclenché dans l’historique — pas des activations réelles.
| Window | Return period | Probability | Backtested activation years |
|---|---|---|---|
| Action | 4.2 years | 24% | 2012, 2017, 2019, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2025 |
| Observational | 4.2 years | 24% | 2017, 2019, 2022, 2023, 2025 |
| Overall (any window) | 4.2 years | 24% |