Chad — Drought Active
Anticipatory action framework tcd-drought
| Country | Chad | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Hazard | Drought | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Monitoring period | Mar–Jun, Sep (Inferred from the stated monitoring schedule (5 Mar, 5 Apr, 5 May, 5 Jun, 5 Sep): W1 SEAS5 issued Mar/Apr, W2 SEAS5 issued May/Jun, W3 biomasse checked early Sep. Months are forecast-issue/check months, not the JAS valid season.) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Area of interest | Lac; Kanem; Bahr-El-Gazal; Sila; Wadi Fira; Batha; Ouaddaï | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Current version | 2025-03-03 · valid until 2027-03 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Trigger windows | Window 1 — livelihoods (main harvest) SEAS5 pixel percentile rank, spatial 20th quantile over AOI: < 15th historical percentile Window 2 — livelihoods (market garden & livestock) SEAS5 pixel percentile rank, spatial 20th quantile over AOI: < 15th historical percentile Window 3 — early humanitarian impact ACF biomass trend-adjusted anomaly, AOI aggregate, dekad 24 (3rd decade Aug): < 84.5% of linear-fit prediction | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Pre-arranged financing | $8.0M (CERF $8.0M) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Budget by sector | Food Security $4.8M · Health $0.9M · WASH $0.8M · Nutrition $0.8M · Child Protection $0.3M · Education $0.2M · GBV $0.1M | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Budget by agency | FAO $2.8M · UNICEF $2.2M · WFP $2.0M · WHO $0.7M · UNFPA $0.3M Both dicts cover the full $8M CERF envelope across the three windows (W1 $3,048,000 / W2 $1,328,000 / W3 $3,624,000); labels translated from French (SECAL→Food Security incl. livelihoods, PE→Child Protection, VBG→GBV); UNFPA = Health $224k + GBV $120k per the financing-table labels. All amounts and window/agency/sector cells are taken from the doc's per-window financing table (p.2 summary + Ch.3), which reconciles exactly to $8,000,000. NOTE a typo in the doc's OWN Ch.4 per-agency table: it prints PAM = 1 986 000, which would make that table sum to $8,018,000. The per-window table gives PAM 1 112 000 (W1) + 856 000 (W2) = 1 968 000, and only 1 968 000 reproduces the printed $8,000,000 total and the printed sector percentages (SECAL 60,1% = $4,808,000). funding_by_agency therefore uses 1,968,000 — do not 'correct' it to the Ch.4 figure. Full breakdown as stated in the framework document (13 budget lines, $8,000,000)Ventilation complète telle qu’indiquée dans le document du cadre (13 lignes budgétaires, $8,000,000)
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| Target people | 260,000 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Framework document | 2025-03-03 ↗ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Code repository | ds-aa-tcd-drought ↗ |
Activation history
Real activations of this framework: the public trigger announcement and the CERF allocation that funded the response, with the people targeted and reached that CERF reports for the allocation (reported ~9 months after disbursement).Activations réelles de ce cadre : l’annonce publique de déclenchement et l’allocation du CERF qui a financé la réponse, avec les personnes ciblées et atteintes rapportées par le CERF pour l’allocation (rapporté ~9 mois après le décaissement).
| Date | Window | Announcement | CERF allocation | CERF approved | People targeted | People reached |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | Window 2 — livelihoods (market garden & livestock) partial | announcement ↗ | — | — | — | — |
| Second 2026 activation, 9 May 2026 (SEAS5 May issue). Attributed to Window 2 (~$1.33M). Window attribution inferred from framework structure and the $4.4M total = W1+W2 budgets; the Anticipation Hub article gives the two dates and total but does not label the windows. Partial, per-window release — not an all-in framework activation. | ||||||
| 2026-04-30 | Window 1 — livelihoods (main harvest) partial | announcement ↗ | — | — | — | — |
| First 2026 activation, 30 April 2026 (SEAS5 April issue). Attributed to Window 1 (~$3.05M) — the two 2026 activations together released $4.4M CERF, matching W1+W2 budgets ($3.05M+$1.33M). Partial, per-window release — not an all-in framework activation. Public source: Anticipation Hub, 20 May 2026. | ||||||
Trigger statistics (current version)
Analysis period 1999–2026. Split funding: each window has its own budget and fires independently. Backtested years are when each trigger would have fired in the historical record — not real activations.Les années backtest sont celles où chaque déclencheur se serait déclenché dans l’historique — pas des activations réelles.
| Window | Allocation | Return period | Probability | Backtested activation years |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Window 1 | $3.0M | 7.2 years | 14% | 2010, 2011, 2015, 2026 |
| Window 2 | $1.3M | 14.5 years | 7% | 2015, 2026 |
| Window 3 | $3.6M | 5.8 years | 18% | 2006, 2009, 2011, 2015, 2017 |
| Overall (any window) | 4.1 years | 25% | ||