AA Trigger Statistics

Each filled cell marks a year the framework's trigger would have fired in the historical (backtested) record. One row per year, one column per framework.Chaque cellule remplie marque une année où le déclencheur du cadre se serait déclenché dans l’historique (backtest). Une ligne par année, une colonne par cadre.

Drought Flood Cyclone Cholera

Year	COD · Cholera	MOZ · Cholera	AFG · Drought	BFA · Drought	TCD · Drought	SLV · Drought	GTM · Drought	HND · Drought	KEN · Drought	MRT · Drought	NER · Drought	BGD · Flood	TCD · Flood	NER · Flood	NGA · Flood	BGD · Tropical cyclone	CUB · Tropical cyclone	FJI · Tropical cyclone	HTI · Tropical cyclone	MDG · Tropical cyclone	MOZ · Tropical cyclone	PHL · Tropical cyclone	#
2026																							2
2025																							6
2024																							3
2023																							7
2022																							11
2021																							9
2020																							7
2019																							12
2018																							6
2017																							8
2016																							7
2015																							7
2014																							5
2013																							4
2012																							7
2011																							4
2010																							6
2009																							7
2008																							4
2007																							4
2006																							5
2005																							5
2004																							7
2003																							3
2002																							5
2001																							4
2000																							2
1999																							3
1998																							2
1997																							4
1996																							1
1995																							2
1994																							6
1991																							4
1988																							1
1985																							1
1984																							1
1979																							1

Overall return period = the chance any trigger in the framework fires. Pre-arranged = committed financing released on activation.Période de retour globale = la probabilité que n’importe quel déclencheur du cadre se déclenche. Pré-arrangé = financement engagé, libéré lors de l’activation.

Framework	Hazard	Windows	Overall RP	Annual prob.	Pre-arranged	Funding
DR Congo	Cholera	1	1.2 yr	100%	$3.0M	split
Mozambique	Cholera	1	2.8 yr	36%	$1.5M	split
Afghanistan	Drought	2	3.9 yr	26%	$22.0M	split
Burkina Faso	Drought	2	3.2 yr	31%	$8.0M	all-in
Chad	Drought	3	4.1 yr	25%	$8.0M	split
El Salvador	Drought	1	2.9 yr	34%	$10.5M	split
Guatemala	Drought	1	2.9 yr	34%	$10.5M	split
Honduras	Drought	1	2.9 yr	34%	$10.5M	split
Kenya	Drought	2	4.3 yr	25%	—	all-in
Mauritania	Drought	2	3.7 yr	27%	$2.5M	all-in
Niger	Drought	2	3.5 yr	29%	$14.8M	split
Bangladesh	Flood	2	4.2 yr	24%	$6.0M	split
Chad	Flood	2	3.0 yr	33%	$4.0M	split
Niger	Flood	2	3.0 yr	34%	$5.0M	split
Nigeria	Flood	1	4.5 yr	23%	$7.0M	split
Bangladesh	Tropical cyclone	2	6.7 yr	15%	—	split
Cuba	Tropical cyclone	3	3.7 yr	28%	$4.0M	split
Fiji	Tropical cyclone	3	3.1 yr	32%	$3.9M	split
Haiti	Tropical cyclone	3	2.4 yr	42%	—	split
Madagascar	Tropical cyclone	1	3.5 yr	29%	$3.0M	split
Mozambique	Tropical cyclone	2	4.2 yr	24%	$4.5M	split
Philippines	Tropical cyclone	1	2.9 yr	37%	$6.0M	split

Per-framework trigger statistics in the format used in the framework documents. Frameworks with more than one version show each — pick a year to see that version's trigger history.Statistiques de déclenchement par cadre, dans le format utilisé dans les documents des cadres. Les cadres ayant plusieurs versions les affichent toutes — choisissez une année pour voir l’historique de déclenchement de cette version.

DR Congo — Cholera framework page →

Trigger Mechanism Statistics

Stats by triggerAnalysis years: 2020–2025

Trigger	Return period	Activation probability	Years activated
Trigger	1.2 years	100%	2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025

Overall stats

Overall return period	1.2 years
Overall probability of activation	100%
Average total spending per year	$3.0M

Pre-arranged financing: $3.0M

Overall return period	2.8 years
Overall probability of activation	36%
Average total spending per year	$0.5M

Trigger	Return period	Activation probability	Years activated
Window A	6.1 years	16%	1985, 2000, 2001, 2004, 2006, 2008, 2018
Window B	3.9 years	26%	2000, 2001, 2004, 2006, 2008, 2011, 2018, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2025

Trigger	Return period	Activation probability	Years activated
Window A	3.2 years	31%	1984, 1985, 1986, 1988, 1989, 2001, 2008, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2018, 2021, 2022
Window B	3.5 years	29%	1986, 1989, 2000, 2001, 2004, 2006, 2008, 2011, 2018, 2021, 2022, 2023

Overall return period	2.3 years
Overall probability of activation	43%
Average total spending per year	$4.3M

Trigger	Return period	Activation probability	Years activated
1. SEAS5 April	6.5 years	15%	2005, 2009, 2019, 2020
2. ASAP warnings	5.2 years	19%	2002, 2004, 2006, 2009, 2011

Trigger	Return period	Activation probability	Years activated
Window 1	7.2 years	14%	2010, 2011, 2015, 2026
Window 2	14.5 years	7%	2015, 2026
Window 3	5.8 years	18%	2006, 2009, 2011, 2015, 2017

Overall return period	4.1 years
Overall probability of activation	25%
Average total spending per year	$2.0M

Overall return period	2.9 years
Overall probability of activation	34%
Average total spending per year	$1.4M

Overall return period	2.5 years
Overall probability of activation	40%
Average total spending per year	$1.0M

Overall return period	2.4 years
Overall probability of activation	42%
Average total spending per year	$1.7M

Trigger	Return period	Activation probability	Years activated
Forecast (1-in-3 year)	4.3 years	25%	2005, 2010, 2016
Forecast (1-in-5 year)	4.3 years	25%	2005, 2010, 2016

Trigger	Return period	Activation probability	Years activated
Forecast	6.5 years	15%	2001, 2011, 2014, 2015
Observational	5.2 years	19%	2002, 2011, 2014, 2017, 2019

Overall return period	3.7 years
Overall probability of activation	27%
Average total spending per year	$0.8M

Trigger	Return period	Activation probability	Years activated
Window 1	9.3 years	11%	2001, 2002, 2004
Window 2	3.5 years	29%	2001, 2002, 2004, 2006, 2009, 2013, 2015, 2022

Trigger	Return period	Activation probability	Years activated
Window 1	4.6 years	22%	1988, 1996, 1999, 2007, 2012, 2016, 2017, 2019, 2020, 2024
Window 2	23.0 years	4%	2004, 2020

Overall return period	4.2 years
Overall probability of activation	24%
Average total spending per year	$1.5M

Trigger	Return period	Activation probability	Years activated
Action	4.0 years	25%	2003, 2005, 2007, 2010, 2012, 2018, 2022
Readiness	3.0 years	33%	2003, 2005, 2010, 2012, 2022

Trigger	Return period	Activation probability	Years activated
Window 1	3.0 years	34%	1979, 1994, 1995, 1998, 1999, 2010, 2012, 2013, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2019, 2020, 2022, 2024, 2025
Window 2	4.8 years	21%	1998, 1999, 2010, 2012, 2013, 2015, 2019, 2020, 2024, 2025

Overall return period	4.5 years
Overall probability of activation	23%
Average total spending per year	$1.6M

Trigger	Return period	Activation probability	Years activated
Window 1	6.7 years	15%	1991, 1994, 1995, 1997, 2004, 2007, 2020
Window 2	6.7 years	15%	1991, 1994, 1995, 1997, 2004, 2007, 2020

Trigger	Return period	Activation probability	Years activated
Action	3.7 years	27%	2001, 2004, 2005, 2008, 2016, 2017, 2022
Observational	3.7 years	27%	2005, 2008
Readiness	3.7 years	27%	2001, 2004, 2005, 2008, 2016, 2017, 2022

Trigger	Return period	Activation probability	Years activated
Action	3.6 years	28%	2003, 2010, 2013, 2016, 2018, 2020, 2021
Observational	6.2 years	16%	2016, 2020, 2021, 2022
Readiness	3.6 years	28%	2003, 2010, 2013, 2016, 2018, 2020, 2021

Overall return period	3.1 years
Overall probability of activation	32%
Average total spending per year	$1.3M

Trigger	Return period	Activation probability	Years activated
Action	3.0 years	33%	2005, 2008, 2010, 2012, 2016, 2017, 2021, 2025
Observational	3.4 years	27%	2002, 2006, 2008, 2010, 2012, 2016, 2025
Readiness	3.0 years	33%	2005, 2008, 2010, 2012, 2016, 2017, 2021, 2025

Trigger	Return period	Activation probability	Years activated
Action	4.2 years	24%	2012, 2017, 2019, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2025
Observational	4.2 years	24%	2017, 2019, 2022, 2023, 2025