Teleconnections

ENSO country deep dives

Where the survey's one-line literature grade deserves a closer look: per country, why the catalogue says what it says, what the peer-reviewed literature actually supports, what ERA5 shows at country and pixel resolution, and what that means for drought.

Eritrea

Graded robust by inheritance from Ethiopia's kiremt row. ERA5 supports the direction at moderate strength (JAS r ≈ −0.4), strongest along the Tigray border, weak in the northern highlands, and reversed on the Red Sea coast in winter. El Niño roughly doubles the odds of a driest-third kiremti.

catalogue robust → reviewed moderate

How a deep dive is built

Each page pairs a curated evidence review (why the survey catalogue graded the country as it did, and what the literature actually supports) with figures recomputed from the survey's own ERA5 0.25° grid and the NOAA Niño3.4 index: the seasonal cycle, pixel-level correlation maps, a season-by-season rainfall history coloured by ENSO phase, and El Niño composite and drought hit-rate maps. The drought framing is deliberate: a correlation coefficient understates an asymmetric response, so each page reports how often El Niño seasons fell in the driest third, against a 33% base rate.

Add a country by dropping a deep_dives/<slug>.toml into the repo and running uv run python enso_deep_dive.py; see the README.