El Niño 2026/27
Angola: the 2026/27 rainy season and El Niño
1 in 46
SEAS5's October 2026 forecast of Nov–Mar rain in the south is drier than all 45 of its past October forecasts (seasons starting 1981–2025); 46 is the most a 45-year record can show. It ranks the forecast, not the rain to come (skill r = 0.32).
24%
of the south's forecast anomaly (-3.4 SD) goes with El Niño, if SEAS5's weak past relation to the ONI (r = -0.26) is extended to this year's record 2.16 °C
4 of 7
CERF drought allocations to Angola responded to El Niño seasons (3 seasons); 3 to La Niña seasons (2)
1.5–1.99 million
people in Phase 3+ at the peak (Aug 2026 – Jul 2027), FEWS NET estimate of August 2026
1. The forecast
SEAS5, October 2026: dry in the south, wet in the north and centre; nationally the two cancel (47th percentile)
Driest 10% of forecasts for Nov–Mar: Moxico, Huíla, Namibe, Cuando Cubango, Cunene. Wettest 10%: Zaire, Uíge, Bengo, Lunda Norte, Cuanza Norte, Malanje, Lunda Sul, Cuanza Sul. Median skill r = 0.26 in the dry provinces and 0.47 in the wet ones; of the dry provinces, skill is 0.3 or more only in Huíla and Cuando Cubango. A return period of 46 means drier than every past October forecast; without removing the trend it is still the driest in 4 of the 5 dry provinces. In the south the forecast is 83% of the average past October forecast (-3.4 SD); the previous driest, for 1982/83, was 89% (-2.3 SD). The November forecast comes out around 6 November.
November is forecast drier than in any past October forecast in 8 of 18 provinces and for Angola as a whole, and March in all 5 dry provinces
Dec–Feb is less dry in Moxico, Huíla and Namibe; in Cuando Cubango and Cunene it stays among the driest 10%. January is in the driest third only in Cuando Cubango. The three-month columns are the same numbers as the seas5-skill viewer for every province it shows.
By province
Target areas will be added as rows once known.
| Province | Forecast Nov–Mar (return period) | Skill r | 2026 forecast (SD) / ENSO part (hindcast r with ONI) | El Niño seasons driest / wettest third | Rain–ONI r | Nov–Mar 2025/26 % of normal | 1 Sep–31 Oct 2026 % of normal | FEWS NET highest phase Oct 2026–Jan 2027 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cabinda | 1 in 4 wet | 0.52 | +0.5 / +1.1 (+0.37) | 4 / 8 of 15 | +0.12 | 74% | 62% | 2 Stressed |
| Zaire | 1 in 12 wet | 0.49 | +1.4 / +1.5 (+0.49) | 2 / 6 of 15 | +0.09 | 59% | 57% | 1 Minimal |
| Uíge | 1 in 23 wet | 0.48 | +2.3 / +1.8 (+0.57) | 1 / 3 of 15 | +0.05 | 84% | 82% | 1 Minimal |
| Bengo | 1 in 15 wet | 0.49 | +1.7 / +1.7 (+0.55) | 1 / 6 of 15 | +0.15 | 50% | 61% | 1 Minimal |
| Lunda Norte | 1 in 23 wet | 0.46 | +2.8 / +2.2 (+0.70) | 3 / 8 of 15 | +0.24 | 101% | 96% | 1 Minimal |
| Cuanza Norte | 1 in 23 wet | 0.44 | +2.2 / +1.9 (+0.60) | 3 / 7 of 15 | +0.27 | 73% | 80% | 1 Minimal |
| Malanje | 1 in 46 wet | 0.49 | +2.6 / +2.0 (+0.64) | 3 / 9 of 15 | +0.29 | 96% | 85% | 1 Minimal |
| Luanda | 1 in 5 wet | 0.42 | +0.9 / +1.6 (+0.53) | 1 / 8 of 15 | +0.39 | 41% | — | 2 Stressed |
| Lunda Sul | 1 in 23 wet | 0.16 (low) | +1.5 / +1.6 (+0.52) | 3 / 5 of 15 | +0.16 | 97% | 100% | 1 Minimal |
| Cuanza Sul | 1 in 15 wet | 0.43 | +1.8 / +2.1 (+0.67) | 3 / 9 of 15 | +0.44 | 72% | 73% | 1 Minimal |
| Bié | 1 in 2 wet | 0.31 | +0.3 / +1.4 (+0.44) | 2 / 7 of 15 | +0.21 | 85% | 85% | 1 Minimal |
| Huambo | 1 in 3 wet | 0.38 | +0.4 / +1.6 (+0.53) | 0 / 8 of 15 | +0.38 | 77% | 75% | 1 Minimal |
| Benguela | 1 in 2 dry | 0.43 | -0.3 / +1.5 (+0.47) | 1 / 10 of 15 | +0.49 | 56% | 56% | 3 Crisis |
| Moxico | 1 in 23 dry | 0.13 (low) | -2.4 / -1.0 (-0.33) | 7 / 3 of 15 | -0.16 | 98% | 95% | 1 Minimal |
| Huíla | 1 in 46 dry | 0.41 | -1.8 / +0.7 (+0.24) | 5 / 7 of 15 | +0.28 | 87% | 72% | 3 Crisis |
| Namibe | 1 in 46 dry | 0.26 (low) | -2.3 / +0.2 (+0.08) | 5 / 5 of 15 | +0.04 | 72% | — | 3 Crisis |
| Cuando Cubango | 1 in 46 dry | 0.31 | -3.7 / -1.7 (-0.54) | 12 / 0 of 15 | -0.54 | 113% | — | 3 Crisis |
| Cunene | 1 in 46 dry | 0.22 (low) | -2.7 / -0.6 (-0.21) | 8 / 3 of 15 | -0.23 | 117% | — | 3 Crisis |
| South (Namibe, Huíla, Cunene, Cuando Cubango) | 1 in 46 dry | 0.32 | -3.4 / -0.8 (-0.26) | 9 / 4 of 15 | -0.31 | 105% | — | 3 Crisis |
| Angola | 1 in 2 dry | 0.38 | -0.1 / +1.0 (+0.33) | 5 / 5 of 15 | +0.06 | 93% | 86% | — |
2. Rain so far
Too early to judge Luanda, Namibe, Cuando Cubango, Cunene: under 40 mm of rain normally falls there by the end of October
Since 1 September: below 75% of normal in Cabinda 62%, Zaire 57%, Bengo 61%, Cuanza Sul 73%, Benguela 56%, Huíla 72%. Last season (2025/26) the south had 105% of normal Nov–Mar rain; it was the driest on record in Zaire, Bengo, Luanda.
3. How much of it is El Niño
In past El Niño seasons the north and centre were usually wetter than normal; the south-east was drier
Nov–Mar rain correlates with the ONI at −0.25 or below only in Cuando Cubango, and at +0.25 or above in 7 of 18 provinces. El Niño seasons in the driest third (of 15; chance 5): Cuando Cubango 12, Cunene 8, Namibe 5, Huíla 5. ERA5 agrees with CHIRPS on the sign in 88–100% of cells with |r| ≥ 0.2.
24% of the south's dry forecast goes with El Niño, on SEAS5's own past forecasts; in Huíla the forecast is unlike any past strong El Niño forecast
South: forecast -3.4 SD, of which -0.8 SD goes with the ONI, from a weak relation (r = -0.26) extended beyond any past ONI. October forecasts were also among the driest in Cunene, Cuando Cubango in 1982/83, 1997/98. Of the 4 strong El Niño seasons, 3 brought a driest-third Nov–Mar to the south (1982/83, 2015/16, 2023/24). ENSO goes with about 10% of the year-to-year variation in the south's Nov–Mar rain (r = -0.31).
The south's five driest seasons since 1981: 2018/19 (El Niño), 2022/23 (La Niña), 1995/96 (La Niña), 2014/15 (El Niño), 1986/87 (El Niño)
CERF drought allocations for El Niño seasons: 2015/16, 2018/19 (2), 2023/24; for La Niña seasons: 2011/12, 2020/21 (2). The largest FEWS NET needs (2.5–5 million, 2021) followed the 2020/21 La Niña season.
4. Food security
FEWS NET (September 2026): 7 of 41 areas projected in Crisis (Phase 3) for October 2026–January 2027: Benguela, Huíla, Namibe, Cuando Cubango, Cunene
FEWS NET estimates 750,000–999,999 people in Phase 3+ in September 2026 and 1.5–1.99 million at the peak (Aug 2026 – Jul 2027). Its seasonal calendar: rains October–May, lean season November–February, main cereal harvest March–June. IPC has analysed Angola twice, in the southern provinces only: 2019 (421 thousand in Phase 3+) and 2021 (1.3 million).
5. Published studies
El Niño dries southern and south-eastern Angola, though not in every El Niño season; no attribution study is specific to Angola
Attribution studies exist for 2015/16 and 2023/24 in southern Africa: the 2023/24 study leaves Angola out, the 2015/16 study does not say. We found none on the 2019–2021 drought in the south of Angola.
| Study | Area, season | Angola in it | Finding |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kimutai et al. 2024 (World Weather Attribution) | Zimbabwe, Botswana, and the southern parts of Zambia and Mozambique; Dec–Feb 2023/24 | No | El Niño made a drought like 2023/24 about twice as likely; climate change was not a significant driver. |
| Funk et al. 2018 | Southern Africa; Dec–Feb 2015/16 | Not stated | Warming likely made the 2015/16 El Niño stronger, which deepened the drought and the crop losses. |
| Lombe et al. 2026 | Cunene, Huíla, Namibe; 1980–2024 | Yes | 2019 and 2021 were extreme drought years in all three provinces, more so once evaporative demand is counted. ENSO is not tested; the only study we found that is specific to that drought. |
| Lourenço et al. 2023 | Angolan highlands; 1981–2020 | Yes | Eight drought periods since 1981; only two fell solely in El Niño years. |
| Moses et al. 2025 | Okavango basin, including the Cubango and Cuito headwaters; Dec–Feb, 1981–2024 | South-east | Over the Angolan headwaters the weak 2018/19 El Niño was drier than the strong 2023/24 one; more Atlantic moisture reached the basin in 2023/24. |
| Maphugwi et al. 2025 | Eastern Congo Air Boundary region; Jan–Mar, 1979–2024 | Unclear | All five driest late summers were El Niño years, 2023/24 the driest. The strong 1997/98 El Niño brought no drought there; the paper attributes this to an Angola Low that did not weaken. |
| Magadzire et al. 2026 | Southern Africa; rainy season, skill highest Dec–Feb | Partly (skill scored south of 15°S) | El Niño dries the central and southern interior, more so in moderate-to-strong events; little signal over central Angola and a wetter tilt in the west. Rainfall skill is higher in the north of the scored area, including south-eastern Angola (both from the preprint). |
| Howard et al. 2019 | Southern Africa; Dec–Feb | Yes | Rain-bearing tropical lows shift north in El Niño and south in La Niña; they carry much of Angola's year-to-year rainfall variation. |
| Crétat et al. 2019 | Angola and neighbouring countries; Nov–Mar, 1980/81–2014/15 | Yes | A weak or northward Angola Low brings rain to tropical and drought to subtropical southern Africa; weak Angola Low states correlate with rainfall more strongly than ENSO does. |
| Pomposi et al. 2018 | 15–35°S; Dec–Feb, 1981/82–2015/16 | South of 15°S | Below-normal rain in about 80% of strong El Niño seasons and just over 60% of moderate-to-weak ones; strong events weaken the Angola Low. |
| Hoell et al. 2015 | South of 15°S; Dec–Mar, 1950–2010 | South of 15°S | El Niño with a warm Indian Ocean brings less rain; El Niño with a cool Indian Ocean brings more. |
| Blamey et al. 2018 | Southern Africa; Oct–Mar, 2015/16 against past El Niños | Partly | 2015/16 was drier early in the season than past El Niños of similar strength because the Angola Low and the South Indian Ocean High were weak. |
| Nicholson and Kim 1997 | Africa; 1901–1990 | Yes | ENSO tends to bring opposite rainfall anomalies to equatorial and southern Africa. |
| Rouault et al. 2003 | Coast of Angola and Namibia; Feb–Apr | Coast | Warm sea off Angola and Namibia (Benguela Niños) goes with above-average rain on the coast, sometimes inland too. |
About the data
- Seasons and phases. The season is November–March, the core of the rains in every province and inside the October forecast. Seasons are labelled by the year they start and classed by the Sep–Nov ONI (NOAA CPC) of that year: El Niño ≥ +0.5 °C, strong ≥ +1.5 °C (1982/83, 1997/98, 2015/16, 2023/24), La Niña ≤ −0.5 °C.
- Forecast. ECMWF SEAS5 ensemble mean by province (team admin-1 statistics), October 2026 issuance, computed as in the team's seas5-skill viewer: three- or five-month means, log-transformed, scaled to ERA5 and detrended; rank among the 45 hindcasts for the same months (1981–2025); return period (n + 1) / rank; skill = correlation with ERA5. Groups are area-weighted means of their provinces. ENSO part: a straight-line fit of the hindcast z-scores on the Jul–Sep ONI, at this year's 2.16 °C.
- Rain. CHIRPS v3 (satellite and gauges) at 0.5°, area-weighted by province; final to September 2026, preliminary pentads for October. ERA5 is used as a check. Normals are 1991–2020.
- Vegetation. JRC ASAP zFPARc: cumulative anomaly of the light absorbed by crops through the growing cycle (MODIS), GAUL admin-1, last dekad of April.
- Food security. FEWS NET classification via the team's mirror, population estimates from the FEWS NET Data Warehouse (national ranges). IPC: the team's mirror of the IPC API. CERF: allocations coded Drought in OneGMS.
OCHA Centre for Humanitarian Data · built 2026-11-02