This is an OCHA internal tool under active development. Content may change without warning, and may be incomplete, out of date, or inaccurate. For questions or feedback please contact the OCHA Centre for Humanitarian Data at ocha-datascience@un.org.

ECMWF SEAS5 precipitation alerts

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Forecast issued . Colours show where this SEAS5 forecast sits within its historical distribution, where the seasonal forecast has skill; hatched fills indicate moderate (vs. high) skill. Grey = outside the rainy season; cross-hatch = low skill. Use the Issued year/month menus to browse past forecasts (in-sample reconstructions). The Country/Pixel toggle switches between country averages and the native SEAS5 0.4° grid — pixel level is only available for the most recent issuance. By default, alerts are shown only for the rainy season. The first two trimesters on the slider are in-season: they are already underway at issuance, so their 1–2 elapsed months use ERA5 observations and only the remainder is forecast — a much more confident (and higher-skill) estimate of how the season ends up.