Where it stands · 6 October 2026
Window: 1 October – 31 December 2026. The triggers are not yet monitored.
- Teso / Lake Kyoga
- adopted The IFRC/URCS early action protocol trigger as the IBF portal computes it: GloFAS, at least 60 % of ensemble members above the 5-year flow, lead of 5 days or less. Confirmation with URCS / 510 pending.
- Mount Elgon
- waiting Rainfall-forecast draft. Expected to follow a partner's trigger.
- Karamoja
- draft 5-day rainfall forecast per district. To finalise.
- Adjumani / Albert Nile
- draft Lake Kyoga level rise, with a rainfall-forecast option. To finalise.
The rainfall thresholds were calibrated on CHIRPS-GEFS v2, which was discontinued on 1 July 2026. They are to be recalibrated on CHIRPS3-GEFS before monitoring starts.
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Trigger zones and existing coverage
One map: the four UHF zones (core and candidate districts), the GloFAS reporting point, and the districts where IFRC, WFP, CRS, DRC and FAO flood anticipatory action already operates — with each organisation's trigger and status from its source document.
/coverage/Results so far
What the G5196 Akokoro point actually covers (discharge vs district flood extent), whether Albert Nile floods are lake-level events (altimetry vs the flood record), the impact record assembled, the data built, and what comes next.
/results/Draft triggers 🔒
Restricted. One trigger per zone with the budget shared by historical impact, backtested year by year against the recorded impact and alongside the triggers IFRC, FAO, CRS/Caritas and DRC already run. First draft. Password shared internally.
/triggers/Partner draft plans 🔒
Restricted. The substance of partner flood plans shared with the team in draft and not yet public, with the coverage map and harmonisation table including them. Password shared internally.
/partner/Earlier Uganda work, on the SEAS5 alerts site
Uganda — drought forecast & humanitarian caseload (Aug 2026)
The country-team analysis this work sits beside: district-level SEAS5 drought signal joined to JIAF 2.0 Light severity and PiN, response targeting and reach, ASAP cropping seasons, and a closing FloodScan-based Oct–Dec flood outlook — the first look at where Uganda's flooding recurs.
ds-seas5-skillexternalUganda — OND 2026 flood-trigger plan and options
The August 2026 design plan this repository grew out of: target areas by severity tier, four trigger options, the GloFAS skill verification that singled out the Akokoro point, and the design and validation plan.
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