OCHA Centre for Humanitarian Data

SEAS5 Precipitation Alerts

Every month ECMWF issues SEAS5, a seasonal rainfall forecast for the six months ahead. This work turns it into drought and flood alerts a response can act on: skill-gated, expressed as return periods, and joined against humanitarian caseloads.

The app

ECMWF SEAS5 precipitation alerts

The latest issuance's drought and flood signals by country and admin unit — return periods, forecast skill, history, and the Forecast × HNRP overlay joining the forecast to response-plan caseloads.

Map · Skill map · Skill by country · Forecast × HNRP · Methodology /app/Moved here from /

Country analyses

Uganda — drought forecast × humanitarian caseload

Bespoke analysis for the Uganda country team: the August 2026 record-dry Jun–Sep signal at district level, joined to JIAF 2.0 Light severity and PiN, response targeting and reach, and ASAP cropping seasons.

/uganda/

Uganda — OND 2026 flood trigger: plan & options

Revised flood analysis from the Aug 2026 country documents (DTM impact record, UHF severity tiers, URCS hotspot maps): where a Severity 3+ anticipatory-action trigger can point this season, four trigger options, and the design & validation plan.

/uganda-flood-trigger/

ENSO & the seasonal forecast — every country

Two slides per country, with a country selector: what generally happens during El Niño (pixelwise ERA5 teleconnection, other climate modes held constant), and what the current SEAS5 issuance predicts in the app's return-period categories with skill shading. Shareable per-country links and PDF downloads.

/enso/Absorbed /png-enso/, /tls-enso/, /ner-enso/

Access. Everything listed here is public — no sign-in, no passphrase.

Adding a page? Create a directory under pages/ with an index.html and add a card above. The app itself lives in docs/ and is assembled to /app/ at deploy time. See pages/README.md.