OCHA Centre for Humanitarian Data

Niger Drought Anticipatory Action

Analysis behind the Niger drought AA framework: a two-arm trigger combining the IRI seasonal rainfall forecast with an observed Jun–Jul rainfall index. These pages hold the interactive trigger explorer and the 2026-season monitoring and investigation work.

The trigger explorer

Interactive trigger explorer

The calibration app for the framework revision: adjust the forecast and observational thresholds and see the historical activations, per-window return periods, and the bad-year validation update live. This is the page that used to be at this address — if a document linked you to the site root, this is the tool it meant.

Forecast arm · Observational arm · Windows & return periods · Bad-year validation /app/Moved here from / (Sep 2026)

2026 season

2026 framework snapshot

The locked stakeholder-facing snapshot of the 2026 trigger design at the default thresholds (forecast 35% / observational 15%), with the CERF allocation history. Also available en français at /static/2026/fr/.

/static/2026/

Jun–Jul rainfall vs the observational trigger

How close the 2026 season came to the observational arm, using ERA5 and CHIRPS as proxies while the ENACTS value was pending: seasonal totals, percentile ranks, and implied-SPI cross-checks against both candidate thresholds.

/rainfall/

Pockets of drought — departmental view

Per-department return periods for the 2026 season across CHIRPS, IMERG, gauges, SEAS5 and vegetation indices, overlaid with HNRP severity — the sub-national picture a single zone-wide trigger cannot see.

/pockets/

Why ENACTS didn’t trigger

The investigation into the 2026 observational decision: what the live IRI Maproom shows, why CHIRPS and ERA5 disagree with it, what Niger’s own rain gauges reported, and what that means for how the trigger is designed.

/enacts/

Looking for the trigger explorer? It moved from this address to /app/ when this landing page was added — older documents linking the site root mean that app.

Access. Everything here is public — no sign-in. Source and methods: OCHA-DAP/ds-aa-ner-drought.