[Cyclone monitoring] NHC forecast issued Oct. 9, 8am (Jerry, Priscilla)

Dear colleagues,

NHC has issued their cyclone forecasts for Oct. 9, 8am (NY time). There are 2 active storms: Jerry, Priscilla.

This email consolidates exposure estimates from ADAM, GDACS, and OCHA CHD. Full admin-1 figures are in the attached spreadsheet; example alerts with the full charts and the methodology are online.

Best regards,
OCHA Centre for Humanitarian Data

Summary

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Jerry 2025 Atlantic basin

Reading the charts below: everything sits on one axis, population exposed. Dots are the current estimates by source (labelled beneath the axis) · vertical ticks are past storms since 2002, the most similar ones in bold · the shaded curve, where shown, is the exposure distribution of every storm to affect the country since 2002 — the same storms at every wind speed, so at 50 and 64 kt it concentrates near zero (most storms never bring those winds there) and a storm out in the tail is genuinely rare · the scale never runs past the country's total population · a dashed line marks exposure already observed.

Antigua and Barbuda 4-year RP

Guadeloupe (Fr.) 1-year RP

Saint Barthélemy (Fr.)

Dominica

Montserrat (UK)

Saint Kitts and Nevis

Saint Martin (Fr.)

Bonaire (Neth.)

Anguilla (UK)

Priscilla 2025 Eastern Pacific basin

Reading the charts below: everything sits on one axis, population exposed. Dots are the current estimates by source (labelled beneath the axis) · vertical ticks are past storms since 2002, the most similar ones in bold · the shaded curve, where shown, is the exposure distribution of every storm to affect the country since 2002 — the same storms at every wind speed, so at 50 and 64 kt it concentrates near zero (most storms never bring those winds there) and a storm out in the tail is genuinely rare · the scale never runs past the country's total population · a dashed line marks exposure already observed.

Mexico <1-year RP

Contact

Contact the OCHA Centre for Humanitarian Data at ocha-datascience@un.org with any questions or feedback.

OCHA Centre for Humanitarian Data