[Cyclone monitoring] NHC forecast issued Oct. 9, 8am (Jerry, Priscilla)

Dear colleagues,

NHC has issued their cyclone forecasts for Oct. 9, 8am (NY time). There are 2 active storms: Jerry, Priscilla.

This email consolidates exposure estimates from ADAM, GDACS, and OCHA CHD. Full admin-1 figures are in the attached spreadsheet; example alerts with the full charts and the methodology are online.

Best regards,
OCHA Centre for Humanitarian Data

Summary

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Countries already passed (see past emails for final exposure estimate): Jerry 2025: Dominican Republic (Oct. 8, 2am), Grenada (Oct. 7, 8pm), Trinidad and Tobago (Oct. 7, 8am), Turks and Caicos Islands (UK) (Oct. 7, 8am)

Jerry 2025 Atlantic basin

Probabilistic forecast

Reading the charts below: everything sits on one axis, population exposed. Dots are the current estimates by source (labelled beneath the axis) · vertical ticks are past storms since 2002, the most similar ones in bold · the shaded curve, where shown, is the exposure distribution of every storm to affect the country since 2002 — the same storms at every wind speed, so at 50 and 64 kt it concentrates near zero (most storms never bring those winds there) and a storm out in the tail is genuinely rare · the scale never runs past the country's total population · a dashed line marks exposure already observed.

Antigua and Barbuda 4-year RP

Guadeloupe (Fr.) 1-year RP

Saint Vincent and the Grenadines

This is the last update for Jerry in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. The storm is no longer forecast to expose anyone in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, and no exposure has been reported there — earlier alerts were based on forecast tracks that have since moved away. Figures below and in the attached data are zero and will not change, unless the track of the storm changes significantly and returns towards Saint Vincent and the Grenadines again. In this case another update will be issued for Jerry in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines.

Montserrat (UK)

Anguilla (UK)

Saint Kitts and Nevis

Dominica

Bonaire (Neth.)

Saint Martin (Fr.)

Saint Barthélemy (Fr.)

Priscilla 2025 Eastern Pacific basin

Probabilistic forecast

Reading the charts below: everything sits on one axis, population exposed. Dots are the current estimates by source (labelled beneath the axis) · vertical ticks are past storms since 2002, the most similar ones in bold · the shaded curve, where shown, is the exposure distribution of every storm to affect the country since 2002 — the same storms at every wind speed, so at 50 and 64 kt it concentrates near zero (most storms never bring those winds there) and a storm out in the tail is genuinely rare · the scale never runs past the country's total population · a dashed line marks exposure already observed.

Mexico <1-year RP

Contact

Contact the OCHA Centre for Humanitarian Data at ocha-datascience@un.org with any questions or feedback.

OCHA Centre for Humanitarian Data