NHC cyclone forecasts issued Oct. 9, 8am (NY time) · 2 active storms: Jerry, Priscilla. Consolidates exposure estimates from ADAM, GDACS, and OCHA CHD.
Summary
| Storm | Country | Similar storms | Wind | Exposure [% pop.] | Return period |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerry 2025 | Antigua and Barbuda | Maria 2017 Fiona 2022 Gonzalo 2014 | 34 kt | 94K (100%) | 2-year |
| 50 kt | 2K (2%) | 4-year | |||
| Guadeloupe (Fr.) | Bertha 2014 Dean 2007 Erika 2009 | 34 kt | 382K (100%) | 1-year | |
| Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (final) | — | — | none observed | — | |
| Montserrat (UK) | Dean 2007 Earl 2010 Erika 2009 | 34 kt | 5K (100%) | — | |
| Anguilla (UK) | Ernesto 2024 Frances 2004 Irene 2011 | 34 kt | 13K (100%) | — | |
| Saint Kitts and Nevis | Erika 2009 Erika 2015 Ernesto 2024 | 34 kt | 49K (100%) | — | |
| Dominica | Bertha 2014 Chantal 2013 Emily 2011 | 34 kt | 51K (89%) | — | |
| Bonaire (Neth.) | Dorian 2019 Erika 2009 Erika 2015 | 34 kt | 2K (6%) | — | |
| Saint Martin (Fr.) | Irene 2011 Isaias 2020 Laura 2020 | 34 kt | 39K (100%) | — | |
| Saint Barthélemy (Fr.) | Erika 2009 Erika 2015 Ernesto 2024 | 34 kt | 9K (91%) | — | |
| Priscilla 2025 | Mexico | Trudy 2014 Andres 2009 Calvin 2017 | 34 kt | 283K (0%) | <1-year |
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Countries already passed (see past emails for final exposure estimate): Jerry 2025: Dominican Republic (Oct. 8, 2am), Grenada (Oct. 7, 8pm), Trinidad and Tobago (Oct. 7, 8am), Turks and Caicos Islands (UK) (Oct. 7, 8am)
Jerry 2025 Atlantic basin
Deterministic forecast
Probabilistic forecast
Reading the charts below: everything sits on one axis, population exposed. Dots are the current estimates by source (labelled beneath the axis) · vertical ticks are past storms since 2002, the most similar ones in bold · the shaded curve, where shown, is the exposure distribution of every storm to affect the country since 2002 — the same storms at every wind speed, so at 50 and 64 kt it concentrates near zero (most storms never bring those winds there) and a storm out in the tail is genuinely rare · the scale never runs past the country's total population · the coloured curves are the forecast probabilistic distribution of exposure from NHC's wind-speed probabilities, shown two ways: as a probability density, and as the chance that final exposure exceeds each value (starting at 100% and falling to zero) · a dashed line marks exposure already observed.
Antigua and Barbuda 4-year RP
Probability density view
Exceedance view — chance exposure exceeds each value
Probability density view
Exceedance view — chance exposure exceeds each value
Guadeloupe (Fr.) 1-year RP
Probability density view
Exceedance view — chance exposure exceeds each value
Saint Vincent and the Grenadines
This is the last update for Jerry in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. The storm is no longer forecast to expose anyone in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, and no exposure has been reported there — earlier alerts were based on forecast tracks that have since moved away. Figures below and in the attached data are zero and will not change, unless the track of the storm changes significantly and returns towards Saint Vincent and the Grenadines again. In this case another update will be issued for Jerry in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines.
Montserrat (UK)
Probability density view
Exceedance view — chance exposure exceeds each value
Anguilla (UK)
Probability density view
Exceedance view — chance exposure exceeds each value
Saint Kitts and Nevis
Probability density view
Exceedance view — chance exposure exceeds each value
Dominica
Probability density view
Exceedance view — chance exposure exceeds each value
Bonaire (Neth.)
Probability density view
Exceedance view — chance exposure exceeds each value
Saint Martin (Fr.)
Probability density view
Exceedance view — chance exposure exceeds each value
Saint Barthélemy (Fr.)
Probability density view
Exceedance view — chance exposure exceeds each value
Priscilla 2025 Eastern Pacific basin
Deterministic forecast
Probabilistic forecast
Reading the charts below: everything sits on one axis, population exposed. Dots are the current estimates by source (labelled beneath the axis) · vertical ticks are past storms since 2002, the most similar ones in bold · the shaded curve, where shown, is the exposure distribution of every storm to affect the country since 2002 — the same storms at every wind speed, so at 50 and 64 kt it concentrates near zero (most storms never bring those winds there) and a storm out in the tail is genuinely rare · the scale never runs past the country's total population · the coloured curves are the forecast probabilistic distribution of exposure from NHC's wind-speed probabilities, shown two ways: as a probability density, and as the chance that final exposure exceeds each value (starting at 100% and falling to zero) · a dashed line marks exposure already observed.
Mexico <1-year RP
Probability density view
Exceedance view — chance exposure exceeds each value
