[Cyclone monitoring] NHC forecast issued Aug. 16, 2am (Erin)

Dear colleagues,

NHC has issued their cyclone forecasts for Aug. 16, 2am (NY time). There is 1 active storm: Erin.

This email consolidates exposure estimates from ADAM, GDACS, and OCHA CHD. Full admin-1 figures are in the attached spreadsheet; example alerts with the full charts and the methodology are online.

Best regards,
OCHA Centre for Humanitarian Data

Summary

Storm	Country	Similar storms	Wind	Exposure [% pop.]	Return period
Erin 2025	British Virgin Islands (UK)	Erika 2015 Karen 2019 Frances 2004	34 kt	16K (45%)	1-year
	Bermuda (UK)	Alex 2022 Bill 2009 Earl 2022	34 kt	51K (100%)	1-year
	Anguilla (UK)	Jerry 2025 Ernesto 2024 Frances 2004	34 kt	8K (60%)	—

Methodology & documentation | Sign up for alerts | Example alerts

Erin 2025 Atlantic basin

Erin 2025: forecast track and population exposed map

Reading the charts below: everything sits on one axis, population exposed. Dots are the current estimates by source (labelled beneath the axis) · vertical ticks are past storms since 2002, the most similar ones in bold · the shaded curve, where shown, is the exposure distribution of every storm to affect the country since 2002 — the same storms at every wind speed, so at 50 and 64 kt it concentrates near zero (most storms never bring those winds there) and a storm out in the tail is genuinely rare · the scale never runs past the country's total population · a dashed line marks exposure already observed.

British Virgin Islands (UK) 1-year RP

Bermuda (UK) 1-year RP

Anguilla (UK)