[Cyclone monitoring] NHC forecast issued Aug. 16, 2am (Erin)

Dear colleagues,

NHC has issued their cyclone forecasts for Aug. 16, 2am (NY time). There is 1 active storm: Erin.

This email consolidates exposure estimates from ADAM, GDACS, and OCHA CHD. Full admin-1 figures are in the attached spreadsheet; example alerts with the full charts and the methodology are online.

Best regards,
OCHA Centre for Humanitarian Data

Summary

Storm	Country	Similar storms	Wind	Exposure [% pop.]	Return period
Erin 2025	British Virgin Islands (UK)	Erika 2015 Karen 2019 Frances 2004	34 kt	16K (45%)	1-year
	Bermuda (UK)	Alex 2022 Bill 2009 Earl 2022	34 kt	51K (100%)	1-year
	Guadeloupe (Fr.) (final)	—	—	none observed	—
	Anguilla (UK)	Jerry 2025 Ernesto 2024 Frances 2004	34 kt	8K (60%)	—

Methodology & documentation | Sign up for alerts | Example alerts

Countries already passed (see past emails for final exposure estimate): Erin 2025: Barbados (Aug. 14, 2pm), Cuba (Aug. 15, 8am), Dominica (Aug. 15, 2pm), Grenada (Aug. 12, 8pm), Martinique (Fr.) (Aug. 15, 2pm), Saint Lucia (Aug. 14, 8pm), Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (Aug. 14, 8am)

Erin 2025 Atlantic basin

Erin 2025: map of forecast track and population exposed to ≥34 kt winds

Probabilistic forecast

Erin 2025: 34-knot wind speed probabilities

Reading the charts below: everything sits on one axis, population exposed. Dots are the current estimates by source (labelled beneath the axis) · vertical ticks are past storms since 2002, the most similar ones in bold · the shaded curve, where shown, is the exposure distribution of every storm to affect the country since 2002 — the same storms at every wind speed, so at 50 and 64 kt it concentrates near zero (most storms never bring those winds there) and a storm out in the tail is genuinely rare · the scale never runs past the country's total population · a dashed line marks exposure already observed.

British Virgin Islands (UK) 1-year RP

Bermuda (UK) 1-year RP

Guadeloupe (Fr.)

This is the last update for Erin in Guadeloupe (Fr.). The storm is no longer forecast to expose anyone in Guadeloupe (Fr.), and no exposure has been reported there — earlier alerts were based on forecast tracks that have since moved away. Figures below and in the attached data are zero and will not change, unless the track of the storm changes significantly and returns towards Guadeloupe (Fr.) again. In this case another update will be issued for Erin in Guadeloupe (Fr.).

Anguilla (UK)