NHC cyclone forecasts issued Aug. 16, 2am (NY time) · 1 active storm: Erin. Consolidates exposure estimates from ADAM, GDACS, and OCHA CHD.
Summary
| Storm | Country | Similar storms | Wind | Exposure [% pop.] | Return period |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erin 2025 | British Virgin Islands (UK) | Erika 2015 Karen 2019 Frances 2004 | 34 kt | 16K (45%) | 1-year |
| Bermuda (UK) | Alex 2022 Bill 2009 Earl 2022 | 34 kt | 51K (100%) | 1-year | |
| Anguilla (UK) | Jerry 2025 Ernesto 2024 Frances 2004 | 34 kt | 8K (60%) | — |
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Erin 2025 Atlantic basin
Deterministic forecast
Probabilistic forecast
Reading the charts below: everything sits on one axis, population exposed. Dots are the current estimates by source (labelled beneath the axis) · vertical ticks are past storms since 2002, the most similar ones in bold · the shaded curve, where shown, is the exposure distribution of every storm to affect the country since 2002 — the same storms at every wind speed, so at 50 and 64 kt it concentrates near zero (most storms never bring those winds there) and a storm out in the tail is genuinely rare · the scale never runs past the country's total population · the coloured curves are the forecast probabilistic distribution of exposure from NHC's wind-speed probabilities, shown two ways: as a probability density, and as the chance that final exposure exceeds each value (starting at 100% and falling to zero) · a dashed line marks exposure already observed.
British Virgin Islands (UK) 1-year RP
Probability density view
Exceedance view — chance exposure exceeds each value
Bermuda (UK) 1-year RP
Probability density view
Exceedance view — chance exposure exceeds each value
Anguilla (UK)
Probability density view
Exceedance view — chance exposure exceeds each value
