NHC cyclone forecasts issued Aug. 16, 2am (NY time) · 1 active storm: Erin. Consolidates exposure estimates from ADAM, GDACS, and OCHA CHD.
Summary
| Storm | Country | Similar storms | Wind | Exposure [% pop.] | Return period |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erin 2025 | British Virgin Islands (UK) | Erika 2015 Karen 2019 Frances 2004 | 34 kt | 16K (45%) | 1-year |
| Bermuda (UK) | Alex 2022 Bill 2009 Earl 2022 | 34 kt | 51K (100%) | 1-year | |
| Guadeloupe (Fr.) (final) | — | — | none observed | — | |
| Anguilla (UK) | Jerry 2025 Ernesto 2024 Frances 2004 | 34 kt | 8K (60%) | — |
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Countries already passed (see past emails for final exposure estimate): Erin 2025: Barbados (Aug. 14, 2pm), Cuba (Aug. 15, 8am), Dominica (Aug. 15, 2pm), Grenada (Aug. 12, 8pm), Martinique (Fr.) (Aug. 15, 2pm), Saint Lucia (Aug. 14, 8pm), Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (Aug. 14, 8am)
Erin 2025 Atlantic basin
Deterministic forecast
Probabilistic forecast
Reading the charts below: everything sits on one axis, population exposed. Dots are the current estimates by source (labelled beneath the axis) · vertical ticks are past storms since 2002, the most similar ones in bold · the shaded curve, where shown, is the exposure distribution of every storm to affect the country since 2002 — the same storms at every wind speed, so at 50 and 64 kt it concentrates near zero (most storms never bring those winds there) and a storm out in the tail is genuinely rare · the scale never runs past the country's total population · the coloured curves are the forecast probabilistic distribution of exposure from NHC's wind-speed probabilities, shown two ways: as a probability density, and as the chance that final exposure exceeds each value (starting at 100% and falling to zero) · a dashed line marks exposure already observed.
British Virgin Islands (UK) 1-year RP
Probability density view
Exceedance view — chance exposure exceeds each value
Bermuda (UK) 1-year RP
Probability density view
Exceedance view — chance exposure exceeds each value
Guadeloupe (Fr.)
This is the last update for Erin in Guadeloupe (Fr.). The storm is no longer forecast to expose anyone in Guadeloupe (Fr.), and no exposure has been reported there — earlier alerts were based on forecast tracks that have since moved away. Figures below and in the attached data are zero and will not change, unless the track of the storm changes significantly and returns towards Guadeloupe (Fr.) again. In this case another update will be issued for Erin in Guadeloupe (Fr.).
Anguilla (UK)
Probability density view
Exceedance view — chance exposure exceeds each value
