[Cyclone monitoring] NHC forecast issued Jul. 2, 2pm (Beryl)

Dear colleagues,

NHC has issued their cyclone forecasts for Jul. 2, 2pm (NY time). There is 1 active storm: Beryl.

This email consolidates exposure estimates from OCHA CHD. Estimates from ADAM and GDACS were not accessed for this email. Full admin-1 figures are in the attached spreadsheet; example alerts with the full charts and the methodology are online.

Best regards,
OCHA Centre for Humanitarian Data

Summary

Storm	Country	Similar storms	Wind	Exposure [% pop.]	Return period
Beryl 2024	Jamaica	Dean 2007 Ivan 2004 Gustav 2008	34 kt	2.8M (100%)	4-year
			50 kt	2.8M (100%)	12-year
			64 kt	2.1M (76%)	24-year
	Cayman Islands (UK)	Grace 2021 Charley 2004 Dean 2007	34 kt	66K (100%)	3-year
	Cayman Islands (UK)	Grace 2021 Charley 2004 Dean 2007	50 kt	65K (98%)	6-year
	Mexico	Zeta 2020 Narda 2019 Larry 2003	34 kt	4.2M (3%)	1-year
	Mexico	Zeta 2020 Narda 2019 Larry 2003	50 kt	2.0M (2%)	4-year
	Haiti	Olga 2007 Fred 2021 Noel 2007	34 kt	6.2M (53%)	2-year
	Dominican Republic	Emily 2011 Alpha 2005 Mindy 2003	34 kt	324K (3%)	1-year
	Cuba	Claudette 2003 Nate 2017 Marco 2020	34 kt	20 (0%)	<1-year
	Curaçao (Neth.) (final)	—	—	none observed	—
	Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of) (final)	—	—	none observed	—

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Countries already passed (see past emails for final exposure estimate): Beryl 2024: Anguilla (UK) (Jul. 1, 2pm), Antigua and Barbuda (Jul. 1, 2pm), Barbados (Jul. 1, 8am), Bonaire (Neth.) (Jul. 2, 2am), British Virgin Islands (UK) (Jul. 1, 8pm), Dominica (Jul. 1, 2pm), El Salvador (Jul. 2, 2am), Grenada (Jul. 1, 2pm), Guadeloupe (Fr.) (Jul. 1, 2pm), Guyana (Jul. 1, 2am), Martinique (Fr.) (Jul. 1, 2pm), Montserrat (UK) (Jul. 1, 2pm), Saint Barthélemy (Fr.) (Jul. 1, 2pm), Saint Kitts and Nevis (Jul. 1, 2pm), Saint Lucia (Jul. 1, 2pm), Saint Martin (Fr.) (Jul. 1, 2pm), Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (Jul. 1, 2pm), Sint Maarten (Neth.) (Jul. 1, 2pm), Trinidad and Tobago (Jul. 1, 2pm), United States Virgin Islands (USA) (Jul. 2, 2am)

Beryl 2024 Atlantic basin

Forecast landfall

Mexico near Quintana Roo · Jul. 5, 4am ET (in ~2.6 days) · ~72 kt (Category 1)

United States of America near Texas · Jul. 8, 6am ET (in ~5.7 days) · ~46 kt (tropical storm)

Beryl 2024: map of forecast track and population exposed to ≥34 kt winds

Probabilistic forecast

Beryl 2024: 34-knot wind speed probabilities

Reading the charts below: everything sits on one axis, population exposed. Dots are the current estimates by source (labelled beneath the axis) · vertical ticks are past storms since 2002, the most similar ones in bold · the shaded curve, where shown, is the exposure distribution of every storm to affect the country since 2002 — the same storms at every wind speed, so at 50 and 64 kt it concentrates near zero (most storms never bring those winds there) and a storm out in the tail is genuinely rare · the scale never runs past the country's total population · a dashed line marks exposure already observed.

Jamaica 24-year RP

Cayman Islands (UK) 6-year RP

Mexico 4-year RP

Haiti 2-year RP

Dominican Republic 1-year RP

Cuba <1-year RP

Curaçao (Neth.)

This is the last update for Beryl in Curaçao (Neth.). The storm is no longer forecast to expose anyone in Curaçao (Neth.), and no exposure has been reported there — earlier alerts were based on forecast tracks that have since moved away. Figures below and in the attached data are zero and will not change, unless the track of the storm changes significantly and returns towards Curaçao (Neth.) again. In this case another update will be issued for Beryl in Curaçao (Neth.).

Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of)

This is the last update for Beryl in Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of). The storm is no longer forecast to expose anyone in Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of), and no exposure has been reported there — earlier alerts were based on forecast tracks that have since moved away. Figures below and in the attached data are zero and will not change, unless the track of the storm changes significantly and returns towards Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of) again. In this case another update will be issued for Beryl in Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of).