NHC cyclone forecasts issued Jul. 2, 2pm (NY time) · 1 active storm: Beryl. Consolidates exposure estimates from OCHA CHD. Estimates from ADAM and GDACS were not accessed for this email.
Summary
| Storm | Country | Similar storms | Wind | Exposure [% pop.] | Return period |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beryl 2024 | Jamaica | Dean 2007 Ivan 2004 Gustav 2008 | 34 kt | 2.8M (100%) | 4-year |
| 50 kt | 2.8M (100%) | 12-year | |||
| 64 kt | 2.1M (76%) | 24-year | |||
| Cayman Islands (UK) | Grace 2021 Charley 2004 Dean 2007 | 34 kt | 66K (100%) | 3-year | |
| 50 kt | 65K (98%) | 6-year | |||
| Mexico | Zeta 2020 Narda 2019 Larry 2003 | 34 kt | 4.2M (3%) | 1-year | |
| 50 kt | 2.0M (2%) | 4-year | |||
| Haiti | Olga 2007 Fred 2021 Noel 2007 | 34 kt | 6.2M (53%) | 2-year | |
| Dominican Republic | Emily 2011 Alpha 2005 Mindy 2003 | 34 kt | 324K (3%) | 1-year | |
| Cuba | Claudette 2003 Nate 2017 Marco 2020 | 34 kt | 20 (0%) | <1-year | |
| Curaçao (Neth.) (final) | — | — | none observed | — | |
| Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of) (final) | — | — | none observed | — |
Methodology & documentation | Sign up for alerts | Example alerts
Countries already passed (see past emails for final exposure estimate): Beryl 2024: Anguilla (UK) (Jul. 1, 2pm), Antigua and Barbuda (Jul. 1, 2pm), Barbados (Jul. 1, 8am), Bonaire (Neth.) (Jul. 2, 2am), British Virgin Islands (UK) (Jul. 1, 8pm), Dominica (Jul. 1, 2pm), El Salvador (Jul. 2, 2am), Grenada (Jul. 1, 2pm), Guadeloupe (Fr.) (Jul. 1, 2pm), Guyana (Jul. 1, 2am), Martinique (Fr.) (Jul. 1, 2pm), Montserrat (UK) (Jul. 1, 2pm), Saint Barthélemy (Fr.) (Jul. 1, 2pm), Saint Kitts and Nevis (Jul. 1, 2pm), Saint Lucia (Jul. 1, 2pm), Saint Martin (Fr.) (Jul. 1, 2pm), Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (Jul. 1, 2pm), Sint Maarten (Neth.) (Jul. 1, 2pm), Trinidad and Tobago (Jul. 1, 2pm), United States Virgin Islands (USA) (Jul. 2, 2am)
Beryl 2024 Atlantic basin
Deterministic forecast
Probabilistic forecast
Reading the charts below: everything sits on one axis, population exposed. Dots are the current estimates by source (labelled beneath the axis) · vertical ticks are past storms since 2002, the most similar ones in bold · the shaded curve, where shown, is the exposure distribution of every storm to affect the country since 2002 — the same storms at every wind speed, so at 50 and 64 kt it concentrates near zero (most storms never bring those winds there) and a storm out in the tail is genuinely rare · the scale never runs past the country's total population · the coloured curves are the forecast probabilistic distribution of exposure from NHC's wind-speed probabilities, shown two ways: as a probability density, and as the chance that final exposure exceeds each value (starting at 100% and falling to zero) · a dashed line marks exposure already observed.
Jamaica 24-year RP
Probability density view
Exceedance view — chance exposure exceeds each value
Probability density view
Exceedance view — chance exposure exceeds each value
Probability density view
Exceedance view — chance exposure exceeds each value
Cayman Islands (UK) 6-year RP
Probability density view
Exceedance view — chance exposure exceeds each value
Probability density view
Exceedance view — chance exposure exceeds each value
Mexico 4-year RP
Probability density view
Exceedance view — chance exposure exceeds each value
Probability density view
Exceedance view — chance exposure exceeds each value
Haiti 2-year RP
Probability density view
Exceedance view — chance exposure exceeds each value
Dominican Republic 1-year RP
Probability density view
Exceedance view — chance exposure exceeds each value
Cuba <1-year RP
Probability density view
Exceedance view — chance exposure exceeds each value
Curaçao (Neth.)
This is the last update for Beryl in Curaçao (Neth.). The storm is no longer forecast to expose anyone in Curaçao (Neth.), and no exposure has been reported there — earlier alerts were based on forecast tracks that have since moved away. Figures below and in the attached data are zero and will not change, unless the track of the storm changes significantly and returns towards Curaçao (Neth.) again. In this case another update will be issued for Beryl in Curaçao (Neth.).
Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of)
This is the last update for Beryl in Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of). The storm is no longer forecast to expose anyone in Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of), and no exposure has been reported there — earlier alerts were based on forecast tracks that have since moved away. Figures below and in the attached data are zero and will not change, unless the track of the storm changes significantly and returns towards Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of) again. In this case another update will be issued for Beryl in Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of).