[Cyclone monitoring] NHC forecast issued Jul. 2, 2pm (Beryl)

NHC cyclone forecasts issued Jul. 2, 2pm (NY time) · 1 active storm: Beryl. Consolidates exposure estimates from OCHA CHD. Estimates from ADAM and GDACS were not accessed for this email.

Summary

Storm	Country	Similar storms	Wind	Exposure [% pop.]	Return period
Beryl 2024	Jamaica	Dean 2007 Ivan 2004 Gustav 2008	34 kt	2.8M (100%)	4-year
			50 kt	2.8M (100%)	12-year
			64 kt	2.1M (76%)	24-year
	Cayman Islands (UK)	Grace 2021 Charley 2004 Dean 2007	34 kt	66K (100%)	3-year
	Cayman Islands (UK)	Grace 2021 Charley 2004 Dean 2007	50 kt	65K (98%)	6-year
	Mexico	Zeta 2020 Narda 2019 Larry 2003	34 kt	4.2M (3%)	1-year
	Mexico	Zeta 2020 Narda 2019 Larry 2003	50 kt	2.0M (2%)	4-year
	Haiti	Olga 2007 Fred 2021 Noel 2007	34 kt	6.2M (53%)	2-year
	Dominican Republic	Emily 2011 Alpha 2005 Mindy 2003	34 kt	324K (3%)	1-year
	Cuba	Claudette 2003 Nate 2017 Marco 2020	34 kt	20 (0%)	<1-year

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Countries already passed (see past emails for final exposure estimate): Beryl 2024: Barbados (Jul. 1, 8am), Grenada (Jul. 1, 2pm), Saint Lucia (Jul. 1, 2pm), Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (Jul. 1, 2pm), Trinidad and Tobago (Jul. 1, 2pm)

Beryl 2024 Atlantic basin

Forecast landfall

Mexico near Quintana Roo · Jul. 5, 4am ET (in ~2.6 days) · ~72 kt (Category 1)

United States of America near Texas · Jul. 8, 6am ET (in ~5.7 days) · ~46 kt (tropical storm)

Deterministic forecast

Beryl 2024: forecast track and wind swaths map

Probabilistic forecast

Beryl 2024: 34-knot wind speed probabilities

Reading the charts below: everything sits on one axis, population exposed. Dots are the current estimates by source (labelled beneath the axis) · vertical ticks are past storms since 2002, the most similar ones in bold · the shaded curve, where shown, is the exposure distribution of every storm to affect the country since 2002 — the same storms at every wind speed, so at 50 and 64 kt it concentrates near zero (most storms never bring those winds there) and a storm out in the tail is genuinely rare · the scale never runs past the country's total population · the coloured curves are the forecast probabilistic distribution of exposure from NHC's wind-speed probabilities, shown two ways: as a probability density, and as the chance that final exposure exceeds each value (starting at 100% and falling to zero) · a dashed line marks exposure already observed.