Where the rivers stand
Latest forecasts against the thresholds
How to read these charts
Each panel is one river system. Each line is one station's forecast for the next 10 days, shown as a percentage of that station's own threshold, so stations of very different size share one scale. The red dashed line is the threshold (100%). A river is REACHED as soon as any one of its stations goes over the dashed line on a day between 1 October and 31 December.
These three panels are illustrations, not readings. They reuse one real station's forecast with its values scaled up or down.
Forecast peak at each station
The highest ensemble-median value on forecast days between 1 October and 31 December, against the station's threshold. A ratio of 1.00× or more means the station is at or over its threshold, and its river system is REACHED.
How to read this page
- What is checked. Every day, GloFAS runs its 10-day river forecast 51 times from slightly different starting weather. This page uses the middle value of those 51 runs (the ensemble median) for each day, at 14 stations on 7 river systems.
- When a river is REACHED. A river is REACHED when any one of its stations is forecast at or over its threshold on a day between 1 October and 31 December. The banner shows REACHED when at least one river is. Rivers are checked separately: one river reaching its threshold does not depend on the others.
- Where the thresholds come from. Each station's threshold is set from the October to December seasons 2003 to 2025 on the GloFAS version 4 record (the version the live forecast runs on). On that record, a single river reaches its threshold about 1 year in 6 to 8, and at least one of the seven rivers about 1 year in 3 (8 of 23 years: 2008, 2011, 2013, 2017, 2019, 2023, 2024, 2025). Details, tables and the record against floods: the methods page.
- Only October to December counts. The page updates all year. Forecast days outside October to December are shaded grey in the charts and do not count.
- Monitoring only. There is no official trigger behind this page, and nothing is released when a river is REACHED.
- Limits. All values are model forecasts, not gauge readings. The Kulfo, Slena and Sego at Arba Minch are too small for GloFAS's grid: the Gamo lakes station is the Abaya-Chamo lake system. GloFAS forecasts further ahead tend to read lower than nearer ones, so a crossing often shows up only in the last few days before it.
Contact
Reach out to OCHA Data Science at ocha-datascience@un.org with any questions.