Shabelle & Genale Flood Watch

≋Shabelle & Genale Flood Watch

Daily monitoring of GloFAS river forecasts for the Shabelle, Genale/Juba and Webe Gestro in Ethiopia's Somali region, ahead of the Deyr season (October to December 2026). Each day's forecast is compared against seasonal flood levels.

How to read this page
  1. GloFAS runs the same 10-day river forecast 51 times with slightly different starting weather. In each station panel, the shaded band is the range those runs cover (dark: the middle half | light: the widest 80%) and the solid line is the middle run.
  2. The dashed lines are the river's return-period levels for the season, estimated from 46 years of model history: RP2 is reached about once every 2 years, RP3 about once every 3, RP5 about once every 5. Levels are seasonal because these rivers run much higher in July to September, fed by rain in the Ethiopian highlands upstream (the Somali region itself is largely dry then), than during the local Gu or Deyr rains.
  3. The bars under each panel show the share of the 51 runs above that day's RP3 level. This share sets the station's colour.
  4. The monitored conditions in the overview target Deyr flooding, and their backtest record is Deyr-specific. Before the forecast horizon reaches October they are evaluated against the current season's levels, marked accordingly; from October they run on Deyr levels.