Analyses
HNRP 2027 — drought and flood baseline by province (restricted)
Province-level drought and flood baseline data prepared for the Burkina Faso HPC 2027 process, with tables for download. Password-protected: access through the OCHA Burkina Faso office.
/hnrp-2027/Does heat predict drought impact, beyond the biomass proxy?
Steps outside the ASAP biomass proxy: growing-season temperature, alone and with biomass, against national cereal production shortfalls and the seasons that produced EM-DAT drought events and CERF allocations, 2001 to 2024. Temperature outperforms biomass on both, and the two worst harvests had normal biomass in the provinces.
/heat-and-impact/Heat and drought in the framework provinces
How much high temperature has led to or worsened drought in Loroum, Oudalan, Séno and Yagha since 1989, why the trend concern applies to the pre-season rather than the growing season, the record-hot 2026 season so far, and the SEAS5 temperature outlook for the rest of it.
/temperature/Would Trigger 2 activate without the greening trend?
The four provinces have the strongest upward biomass trend in Burkina Faso, which makes ASAP's fixed z-score threshold harder to reach each year. Removing the trend from ASAP's cumulative-FPAR anomaly and re-running the trigger rule 2001–2026: which years would have activated, and whether 2026 would have.
/biomass-detrended/National bulletins vs the ASAP trigger — September 2026
After the provisional non-activation on the 3rd dekad of August, partners shared three Burkinabè documents: ANAM's July drought bulletin, ANAM's rainfall situation at 31 August, and the SAP-GTP joint field mission. How they compare with the JRC ASAP alerts over the four provinces, and whether any could serve as a trigger.
/external-sources-sep-2026/Framework document (17 April 2026)external
The endorsed 2026 framework on ReliefWeb: trigger mechanism, provinces, sectors and the CERF allocation. The authoritative statement of the two triggers summarised on this site.
reliefweb.int