Baseline Risk Analysis for Burkina Faso

Analysis last updated 2021-08-19

This is an initial exploration into humanitarian risks and vulnerabilities in Burkina Faso. Data is compiled and presented on the following elements:

• Flooding risk
• Drought risk
• Population
• Internally displaced persons
• Food security
• Poverty
• Operational presence
• Seasonal precipitation forecast

These factors vary across regions as shown by the figure below.

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Geographic overview of key factors

The North-Eastern regions of Burkina Faso (eg. Sahel, Centre-Nord) are more vulnerable, with high flood and drought risk. These regions also have a population more vulnerable to food insecurity and larger number of IDPs relative to the rest of the country. The country’s humanitarian presence is also most focused on these regions.

   

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Tabular overview of key factors

Risk, vulnerability, and capacity factors by region

Region	Humanitarian activities	IDPs	Multidimensional poverty index	Drought risk	Flood risk	Total population	IPC Phase 3+
Boucle Du Mouhoun	3346	44902	0.5622305	Medium	High	2030595	193571
Cascades	770	8098	0.4995544	Low	Medium	851276	29770
Centre	149	1051	0.1968493	Low	Low	2966307	176731
Centre-Est	426	28446	0.5643588	Medium	Low	1655846	100075
Centre-Nord	8819	433597	0.5727177	High	High	1736152	1031924
Centre-Ouest	466	11126	0.5323436	Medium	Medium	1689721	93461
Centre-Sud	174	4008	0.5271575	Low	Medium	1197207	56611
Est	3254	71394	0.6603258	Medium	Medium	1834166	635900
Hauts-Bassins	401	20571	0.4481049	Low	Medium	2190829	109102
Nord	6191	76953	0.5681285	High	Medium	1677542	432805
Plateau Central	185	15199	0.5283065	Medium	High	975568	67305
Sahel	4206	352402	0.6550872	High	High	1437848	927167
Sud-Ouest	269	7246	0.6176171	Low	Low	891529	74309

   

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Populations facing high hazard risk

We see a greater total population in regions facing high flooding risk. By this factor alone, we could perhaps estimate that flooding would have a larger humanitarian impact.

Populations vulnerable to high hazard risk

	Total population	Men over 60	Women over 60	IDPs
Flood	6180163	131946	152521	846100
Drought	4851542	106773	126579	862952

   

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Number of humanitarian activities by cluster

This figure shows that a significant majority of humanitarian activities are within the WASH cluster, with a notable number also for Nutrition and Health.

Also see this page for a more detailed breakdown.

   

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Precipitation forecast across Africa, April-May-June

Forecast shows potential above-average rainfall for the eastern regions and potential below-average rainfall for the western regions of Burkina Faso.