All 4 forecasts kept Urmil far to the south-west and south of Fiji, at most Category 2 — no hurricane-force winds were forecast at all. Its centre stayed at least 430 km from land.
| Trigger | This forecast | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Readiness120-hour forecast |
0 people in 64-kt zone
threshold 5,000
|
Not reached |
| Action72-hour forecast |
0 people in 64-kt zone
threshold 5,000
|
Not reached |
| Observational2-day rainfall | IMERG satellite, checked daily | — |
Map: latest forecast in black, earlier forecasts in grey.
First forecast, before the system was named: forecast to reach Category 2 west of Fiji, with no hurricane-force winds.
| Trigger | This forecast | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Readiness120-hour forecast |
0 people in 64-kt zone
threshold 5,000
|
Not reached |
| Action72-hour forecast |
0 people in 64-kt zone
threshold 5,000
|
Not reached |
| Observational2-day rainfall | IMERG satellite, checked daily | — |
Forecast as a Category 3 passing west and south of Viti Levu. Its hurricane-force winds stay 215 km from land.
| Trigger | This forecast | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Readiness120-hour forecast |
0 people in 64-kt zone
threshold 5,000
|
Not reached |
| Action72-hour forecast |
0 people in 64-kt zone
threshold 5,000
|
Not reached |
| Observational2-day rainfall | IMERG satellite, checked daily | — |
Forecast as a Category 3 passing west and south of Viti Levu. Its hurricane-force winds stay 155 km from land.
| Trigger | This forecast | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Readiness120-hour forecast |
0 people in 64-kt zone
threshold 5,000
|
Not reached |
| Action72-hour forecast |
0 people in 64-kt zone
threshold 5,000
|
Not reached |
| Observational2-day rainfall | IMERG satellite, checked daily | — |
Forecast as a Category 3 passing west and south of Viti Levu. Its hurricane-force winds stay 140 km from land.
| Trigger | This forecast | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Readiness120-hour forecast |
0 people in 64-kt zone
threshold 5,000
|
Not reached |
| Action72-hour forecast |
0 people in 64-kt zone
threshold 5,000
|
Not reached |
| Observational2-day rainfall | IMERG satellite, checked daily | — |
Forecast as a Category 3 passing west and south of Viti Levu. Its hurricane-force winds stay 155 km from land.
| Trigger | This forecast | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Readiness120-hour forecast |
0 people in 64-kt zone
threshold 5,000
|
Not reached |
| Action72-hour forecast |
0 people in 64-kt zone
threshold 5,000
|
Not reached |
| Observational2-day rainfall | IMERG satellite, checked daily | — |
Forecast as a Category 3 passing west and south of Viti Levu. Its hurricane-force winds stay 165 km from land.
| Trigger | This forecast | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Readiness120-hour forecast |
0 people in 64-kt zone
threshold 5,000
|
Not reached |
| Action72-hour forecast |
0 people in 64-kt zone
threshold 5,000
|
Not reached |
| Observational2-day rainfall | IMERG satellite, checked daily | — |
Forecast as a Category 3 passing west and south of Viti Levu. Its hurricane-force winds stay 130 km from land.
| Trigger | This forecast | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Readiness120-hour forecast |
0 people in 64-kt zone
threshold 5,000
|
Not reached |
| Action72-hour forecast |
0 people in 64-kt zone
threshold 5,000
|
Not reached |
| Observational2-day rainfall | IMERG satellite, checked daily | — |
Forecast as a Category 3 passing west and south of Viti Levu. Its hurricane-force winds stay 190 km from land.
| Trigger | This forecast | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Readiness120-hour forecast |
0 people in 64-kt zone
threshold 5,000
|
Not reached |
| Action72-hour forecast |
0 people in 64-kt zone
threshold 5,000
|
Not reached |
| Observational2-day rainfall | IMERG satellite, checked daily | — |
Forecast as a Category 3 passing west and south of Viti Levu. Its hurricane-force winds stay 220 km from land.
| Trigger | This forecast | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Readiness120-hour forecast |
0 people in 64-kt zone
threshold 5,000
|
Not reached |
| Action72-hour forecast |
0 people in 64-kt zone
threshold 5,000
|
Not reached |
| Observational2-day rainfall | IMERG satellite, checked daily | — |
Heavy rain in western Viti Levu — but far below the threshold
NASA IMERG satellite rainfall, as sent in the observational information emails on 7 and 8 April.
Vaianu came closest — and it was not close
- Every one of the 13 forecasts had 0 people in the 64-kt zone (threshold 5,000). Vaianu's hurricane-force winds stayed 130 km or more offshore.
- Only the uncertainty cone's worst case reached populated areas, on 6–7 April. The trigger uses the forecast track itself, so this alone does not activate.
- Rainfall peaked at 72 mm (2-day country average), against 190 mm.