[Cyclone monitoring] NHC forecast issued Oct. 20, 2am (Oscar)

NHC cyclone forecasts issued Oct. 20, 2am (NY time) · 1 active storm: Oscar. Consolidates exposure estimates from OCHA CHD. Estimates from ADAM and GDACS were not accessed for this email.

Summary

Storm	Country	Similar storms	Wind	Exposure [% pop.]	Return period
Oscar 2024	Turks and Caicos Islands (UK)	Maria 2017 Fiona 2022 Tomas 2010	34 kt	42K (100%)	2-year
			50 kt	8K (20%)	2-year
			64 kt	4K (10%)	3-year
	Bahamas	Ike 2008 Olga 2007 Hermine 2016	34 kt	1K (0%)	<1-year
			50 kt	553 (0%)	1-year
			64 kt	2 (0%)	2-year
	Cuba	Isaac 2012 Elsa 2021 Eta 2020	34 kt	1.6M (15%)	<1-year
	Cuba	Isaac 2012 Elsa 2021 Eta 2020	50 kt	149K (1%)	1-year

Methodology & documentation | Sign up for alerts | Example alerts

Oscar 2024 Atlantic basin

Forecast landfall

Bahamas near Inagua · Oct. 20, 5am ET (in ~3 h) · ~70 kt (Category 1)

Cuba near Guantánamo · Oct. 20, 5pm ET (in ~16 h) · ~64 kt (Category 1)

Deterministic forecast

Oscar 2024: forecast track and wind swaths map

Probabilistic forecast

Oscar 2024: 34-knot wind speed probabilities

Reading the charts below: everything sits on one axis, population exposed. Dots are the current estimates by source (labelled beneath the axis) · vertical ticks are past storms since 2002, the most similar ones in bold · the shaded curve, where shown, is the exposure distribution of every storm to affect the country since 2002 — the same storms at every wind speed, so at 50 and 64 kt it concentrates near zero (most storms never bring those winds there) and a storm out in the tail is genuinely rare · the scale never runs past the country's total population · the coloured curves are the forecast probabilistic distribution of exposure from NHC's wind-speed probabilities, shown two ways: as a probability density, and as the chance that final exposure exceeds each value (starting at 100% and falling to zero) · a dashed line marks exposure already observed.