NHC cyclone forecasts issued Oct. 24, 2pm (NY time) · 1 active storm: Melissa. Consolidates exposure estimates from ADAM, GDACS, and OCHA CHD.
Summary
| Storm | Country | Similar storms | Wind | Exposure [% pop.] | Return period |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Melissa 2025 | Jamaica | Beryl 2024 Ivan 2004 Dean 2007 | 34 kt | 2.9M (100%) | 4-year |
| 50 kt | 2.8M (100%) | 8-year | |||
| 64 kt | 954K (34%) | — | |||
| Cuba | Gustav 2008 Irma 2017 Rafael 2024 | 34 kt | 5.5M (50%) | 2-year | |
| 50 kt | 4.1M (38%) | 4-year | |||
| 64 kt | 836K (8%) | — | |||
| Haiti | Olga 2007 Fred 2021 Irene 2011 | 34 kt | 5.4M (46%) | 2-year | |
| Bahamas | Milton 2024 Ian 2022 Humberto 2019 | 34 kt | 6K (2%) | <1-year | |
| 50 kt | 948 (0%) | 2-year | |||
| Turks and Caicos Islands (UK) | Joaquin 2015 Isaac 2012 Cristobal 2014 | 34 kt | 34K (80%) | 1-year | |
| Curaçao (Neth.) (final) | — | — | none observed | — | |
| Mexico (final) | — | — | none observed | — | |
| Panama (final) | — | — | none observed | — | |
| Costa Rica (final) | — | — | none observed | — | |
| United States of America | Teddy 2020 Arthur 2020 Fiona 2022 | 34 kt | 8K (0%) | — | |
| Cayman Islands (UK) | Ike 2008 Dennis 2005 Laura 2020 | 34 kt | 2K (3%) | — | |
| Belize (final) | — | — | none observed | — |
Methodology & documentation | Sign up for alerts | Example alerts
Countries already passed (see past emails for final exposure estimate): Melissa 2025: Anguilla (UK) (Oct. 22, 2am), Bonaire (Neth.) (Oct. 23, 8am), British Virgin Islands (UK) (Oct. 22, 2am), El Salvador (Oct. 23, 8am), Guatemala (Oct. 23, 8am), Saint Kitts and Nevis (Oct. 22, 2am), Saint Lucia (Oct. 22, 2am), Saint Martin (Fr.) (Oct. 22, 2am), Sint Maarten (Neth.) (Oct. 22, 2am), United States Virgin Islands (USA) (Oct. 22, 2pm)
Melissa 2025 Atlantic basin
Deterministic forecast
Probabilistic forecast
Reading the charts below: everything sits on one axis, population exposed. Dots are the current estimates by source (labelled beneath the axis) · vertical ticks are past storms since 2002, the most similar ones in bold · the shaded curve, where shown, is the exposure distribution of every storm to affect the country since 2002 — the same storms at every wind speed, so at 50 and 64 kt it concentrates near zero (most storms never bring those winds there) and a storm out in the tail is genuinely rare · the scale never runs past the country's total population · the coloured curves are the forecast probabilistic distribution of exposure from NHC's wind-speed probabilities, shown two ways: as a probability density, and as the chance that final exposure exceeds each value (starting at 100% and falling to zero) · a dashed line marks exposure already observed.
Jamaica 8-year RP
Probability density view
Exceedance view — chance exposure exceeds each value
Probability density view
Exceedance view — chance exposure exceeds each value
Probability density view
Exceedance view — chance exposure exceeds each value
Cuba 4-year RP
Probability density view
Exceedance view — chance exposure exceeds each value
Probability density view
Exceedance view — chance exposure exceeds each value
Probability density view
Exceedance view — chance exposure exceeds each value
Haiti 2-year RP
Probability density view
Exceedance view — chance exposure exceeds each value
Bahamas 2-year RP
Probability density view
Exceedance view — chance exposure exceeds each value
Probability density view
Exceedance view — chance exposure exceeds each value
Turks and Caicos Islands (UK) 1-year RP
Probability density view
Exceedance view — chance exposure exceeds each value
Curaçao (Neth.)
This is the last update for Melissa in Curaçao (Neth.). The storm is no longer forecast to expose anyone in Curaçao (Neth.), and no exposure has been reported there — earlier alerts were based on forecast tracks that have since moved away. Figures below and in the attached data are zero and will not change, unless the track of the storm changes significantly and returns towards Curaçao (Neth.) again. In this case another update will be issued for Melissa in Curaçao (Neth.).
Mexico
This is the last update for Melissa in Mexico. The storm is no longer forecast to expose anyone in Mexico, and no exposure has been reported there — earlier alerts were based on forecast tracks that have since moved away. Figures below and in the attached data are zero and will not change, unless the track of the storm changes significantly and returns towards Mexico again. In this case another update will be issued for Melissa in Mexico.
Panama
This is the last update for Melissa in Panama. The storm is no longer forecast to expose anyone in Panama, and no exposure has been reported there — earlier alerts were based on forecast tracks that have since moved away. Figures below and in the attached data are zero and will not change, unless the track of the storm changes significantly and returns towards Panama again. In this case another update will be issued for Melissa in Panama.
Costa Rica
This is the last update for Melissa in Costa Rica. The storm is no longer forecast to expose anyone in Costa Rica, and no exposure has been reported there — earlier alerts were based on forecast tracks that have since moved away. Figures below and in the attached data are zero and will not change, unless the track of the storm changes significantly and returns towards Costa Rica again. In this case another update will be issued for Melissa in Costa Rica.
United States of America
Probability density view
Exceedance view — chance exposure exceeds each value
Cayman Islands (UK)
Probability density view
Exceedance view — chance exposure exceeds each value
Belize
This is the last update for Melissa in Belize. The storm is no longer forecast to expose anyone in Belize, and no exposure has been reported there — earlier alerts were based on forecast tracks that have since moved away. Figures below and in the attached data are zero and will not change, unless the track of the storm changes significantly and returns towards Belize again. In this case another update will be issued for Melissa in Belize.