[Cyclone monitoring] NHC forecast issued Oct. 24, 2pm (Melissa)

NHC cyclone forecasts issued Oct. 24, 2pm (NY time) · 1 active storm: Melissa. Consolidates exposure estimates from ADAM, GDACS, and OCHA CHD.

Summary

Storm	Country	Similar storms	Wind	Exposure [% pop.]	Return period
Melissa 2025	Jamaica	Beryl 2024 Ivan 2004 Dean 2007	34 kt	2.9M (100%)	4-year
			50 kt	2.8M (100%)	8-year
			64 kt	954K (34%)	—
	Cuba	Gustav 2008 Irma 2017 Rafael 2024	34 kt	5.5M (50%)	2-year
			50 kt	4.1M (38%)	4-year
			64 kt	836K (8%)	—
	Haiti	Olga 2007 Fred 2021 Irene 2011	34 kt	5.4M (46%)	2-year
	Bahamas	Milton 2024 Ian 2022 Humberto 2019	34 kt	6K (2%)	<1-year
	Bahamas	Milton 2024 Ian 2022 Humberto 2019	50 kt	948 (0%)	2-year
	Turks and Caicos Islands (UK)	Joaquin 2015 Isaac 2012 Cristobal 2014	34 kt	34K (80%)	1-year
	Cayman Islands (UK)	Ike 2008 Dennis 2005 Laura 2020	34 kt	2K (3%)	—
	United States of America	Teddy 2020 Arthur 2020 Fiona 2022	34 kt	8K (0%)	—

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Melissa 2025 Atlantic basin

Forecast landfall

Jamaica near Manchester · Oct. 28, 1pm ET (in ~4.0 days) · ~120 kt (Category 4)

Cuba near Santiago de Cuba · Oct. 29, 6am ET (in ~4.7 days) · ~103 kt (Category 3)

Deterministic forecast

Melissa 2025: forecast track and wind swaths map

Probabilistic forecast

Melissa 2025: 34-knot wind speed probabilities

Reading the charts below: everything sits on one axis, population exposed. Dots are the current estimates by source (labelled beneath the axis) · vertical ticks are past storms since 2002, the most similar ones in bold · the shaded curve, where shown, is the exposure distribution of every storm to affect the country since 2002 — the same storms at every wind speed, so at 50 and 64 kt it concentrates near zero (most storms never bring those winds there) and a storm out in the tail is genuinely rare · the scale never runs past the country's total population · the coloured curves are the forecast probabilistic distribution of exposure from NHC's wind-speed probabilities, shown two ways: as a probability density, and as the chance that final exposure exceeds each value (starting at 100% and falling to zero) · a dashed line marks exposure already observed.