OCHA Centre for Humanitarian Data

Anticipatory action for tropical cyclones in Vanuatu

The trigger of the National Anticipatory Action Framework for Tropical Cyclones in Vanuatu, endorsed in October 2026 for the 2026/27 and 2027/28 cyclone seasons: at least 15,000 people exposed to 64-knot winds, in the RSMC Nadi and VMHS forecasts or the VMHS observed track.

The trigger

The trigger and its historical activations

The trigger, its historical activations from 2006 to 2025 (Annex 2 of the framework) and return periods, a map of the historical forecasts, and the trigger's performance against past CERF allocations.

Historical activations · Historical forecasts · Trigger performance · Trigger definition · Technical notes /trigger/Linked from the framework document

Analysis

Technical analysis

Trigger design and validation. The design tab compares thresholds, wind speeds and rainfall on the observed record; the forecast tab applies the action trigger to all archived forecasts.

/forecast-check/

Summary slides

Two slides: the trigger definition with return periods, and the historical storm table.

/slides/

Framework documentunocha.org

The National Anticipatory Action Framework for Tropical Cyclones in Vanuatu, co-led by the National Disaster Management Office and OCHA: the trigger, the pre-agreed activities and the pre-arranged financing.

unocha.orgPublished Oct 2026

Access. Everything listed here is public.

Code. The analysis, the data scripts and the live trigger monitoring are in OCHA-DAP/ds-aa-vut-cyclones. This site is served from docs/ on main; to add a page, create a directory there with an index.html and add a card above.