ner-drought (development): IRI forecast + ENACTS SPI, zone south of 17N. Main season used here: Jul–Sep. Production target: Millet, Sorghum (FAOSTAT, national, % from 2001–2024 trend).
| Indicator | r with production | R² | Leave-one-out R² | p | AUC, impact seasons | AUC, CERF-dated | AUC, EM-DAT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Temperature | -0.48 | 0.23 | +0.11 | 0.017 | 0.73 | 0.70 | 0.76 |
| Biomass (zFPARc) | +0.19 | 0.03 | -0.12 | 0.385 | 0.73 | 0.84 | 0.67 |
| FAO ASI | -0.38 | 0.15 | +0.04 | 0.064 | 0.65 | 0.79 | 0.61 |
| FAO mean VHI | +0.34 | 0.12 | -0.07 | 0.105 | 0.61 | 0.63 | 0.65 |
| Rainfall (CHIRPS/ASAP) | +0.12 | 0.01 | -0.15 | 0.582 | 0.62 | 0.68 | 0.63 |
| Rainfall (ERA5) | +0.43 | 0.19 | -0.70 | 0.034 | 0.57 | 0.79 | 0.52 |
| SPI-3 | +0.19 | 0.04 | -0.13 | 0.371 | 0.64 | 0.84 | 0.58 |
| Water balance | +0.40 | 0.16 | +0.04 | 0.053 | 0.65 | 0.76 | 0.63 |
| Combination | R² | Leave-one-out R² | Coefficients (z per sd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Temperature + Biomass (zFPARc) | 0.24 | +0.05 | -8.04 (p 0.028), -1.37 (p 0.691) |
| Temperature + Rainfall (CHIRPS/ASAP) | 0.34 | +0.18 | -12.70 (p 0.004), -7.41 (p 0.071) |
| Temperature + FAO ASI | 0.25 | +0.07 | -5.98 (p 0.114), -2.22 (p 0.546) |
| Biomass (zFPARc) + Rainfall (CHIRPS/ASAP) | 0.04 | -0.19 | +2.57 (p 0.446), +1.30 (p 0.698) |
| Temperature + Biomass (zFPARc) + Rainfall (CHIRPS/ASAP) | 0.38 | +0.15 | -15.61 (p 0.003), -3.61 (p 0.287), -8.82 (p 0.044) |
| Temperature + FAO mean VHI | 0.23 | -0.05 | -6.90 (p 0.086), +0.67 (p 0.863) |
| Quadrant | Seasons | Mean production anomaly | Impact-season rate | Seasons |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| hot / low biomass | 10 | -4.5% | 60% | 2002, 2004, 2006, 2009, 2011, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2019, 2023 |
| hot / high biomass | 2 | -11.7% | 50% | 2017, 2021 |
| cool / low biomass | 2 | -1.4% | 50% | 2013, 2022 |
| cool / high biomass | 10 | +6.8% | 10% | 2001, 2003, 2005, 2007, 2008, 2010, 2012, 2018, 2020, 2024 |
Impact seasons (9): 2004, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2014, 2016, 2019, 2021, 2022.
| Record | Period | Season | Rule |
|---|---|---|---|
| CERF 2008 Rapid Response $2.0M (undated) | 2008-01-01 → | 2007 | undated: last-season-before-impact |
| CERF 2010 Underfunded Emergencies $6.0M (undated) | 2010-01-01 → | 2009 | undated: last-season-before-impact |
| CERF 2010 Rapid Response $15.0M | 2009-06-01 → 2009-09-28 | 2009 | overlap |
| CERF 2010 Rapid Response $14.0M | 2009-06-01 → 2009-09-28 | 2009 | overlap |
| CERF 2011 Rapid Response $6.0M | 2011-06-01 → 2011-09-28 | 2011 | overlap |
| CERF 2012 Rapid Response $15.9M | 2011-06-01 → 2011-09-28 | 2011 | overlap |
| CERF 2022 Rapid Response $9.5M | 2022-06-01 → 2022-07-28 | 2022 | overlap |
| CERF 2022 Underfunded Emergencies $10.0M (undated) | 2022-01-01 → | 2021 | undated: last-season-before-impact |
| EM-DAT 2001-9044-NER (3584558 affected) | 2001-04-01 → 2002-12-28 | 2000 | last-season-before-impact |
| EM-DAT 2005-9362-NER (3000000 affected) | 2005-07-01 → 2006-07-28 | 2004 | last-season-before-impact |
| EM-DAT 2009-9651-NER (7900000 affected) | 2009-09-01 → 2010-03-28 | 2009 | last-season-before-impact |
| EM-DAT 2011-9529-NER (3000000 affected) | 2011-01-01 → 2012-12-28 | 2010 | last-season-before-impact |
| EM-DAT 2015-9166-NER (2588128 affected) | 2015-04-01 → 2017-03-28 | 2014 | last-season-before-impact |
| EM-DAT 2017-9208-NER (1131300 affected) | 2017-05-01 → 2017-06-28 | 2016 | last-season-before-impact |
| EM-DAT 2020-9570-NER (3700000 affected) | 2020-01-01 → 2020-12-28 | 2019 | last-season-before-impact |
| EM-DAT 2022-9254-NER (4400000 affected) | 2022-01-01 → 2022-05-28 | 2021 | last-season-before-impact |
| t_JAS_nat | t_dt_JAS_nat | rain_JAS_nat | wsi_JAS_nat | spi_JAS_nat | z_JAS_nat | z_dt_JAS_nat | era5_nat | asi_nat | mvhi_nat | prod_anom | impact | impact_cerf | impact_emdat | impact_plus_undated | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| year | |||||||||||||||
| 2001 | 28.78 | 0.02 | 38.15 | 80.38 | 0.40 | -0.25 | 0.14 | 0.68 | 0.54 | 0.59 | -6.03 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2002 | 29.29 | 0.54 | 36.01 | 74.20 | -0.30 | -0.60 | -0.24 | 0.66 | 2.12 | 0.54 | -2.72 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2003 | 28.59 | -0.16 | 39.99 | 84.16 | 0.78 | 0.32 | 0.64 | 0.73 | 0.48 | 0.61 | -3.96 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2004 | 29.13 | 0.38 | 31.34 | 74.16 | -0.50 | -0.59 | -0.29 | 0.49 | 3.10 | 0.47 | -26.83 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 2005 | 28.75 | -0.00 | 35.43 | 79.70 | 0.34 | 0.47 | 0.73 | 0.69 | 1.35 | 0.56 | -1.74 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2006 | 28.96 | 0.21 | 40.61 | 74.50 | -0.08 | -0.68 | -0.46 | 0.66 | 2.74 | 0.57 | 4.42 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2007 | 28.44 | -0.31 | 37.65 | 79.18 | 0.35 | -0.10 | 0.09 | 0.81 | 6.39 | 0.49 | -3.22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2008 | 28.76 | 0.01 | 36.02 | 76.67 | 0.19 | -0.03 | 0.13 | 0.59 | 0.10 | 0.62 | 20.23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2009 | 29.62 | 0.87 | 29.85 | 62.93 | -0.77 | -0.73 | -0.60 | 0.48 | 8.97 | 0.49 | -16.74 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 2010 | 28.61 | -0.14 | 39.25 | 82.38 | 0.56 | -0.08 | 0.02 | 1.10 | 0.34 | 0.66 | 21.95 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 2011 | 29.33 | 0.58 | 30.25 | 67.75 | -0.53 | -0.28 | -0.21 | 0.59 | 4.37 | 0.56 | -18.36 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 2012 | 28.29 | -0.46 | 40.07 | 85.00 | 0.57 | 0.25 | 0.29 | 0.89 | 1.71 | 0.62 | 18.07 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2013 | 28.77 | 0.02 | 35.66 | 76.60 | 0.21 | -0.20 | -0.20 | 0.67 | 1.22 | 0.61 | -6.71 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2014 | 29.01 | 0.26 | 33.73 | 75.65 | -0.28 | -0.17 | -0.20 | 0.82 | 2.25 | 0.56 | 1.93 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 2015 | 28.99 | 0.24 | 38.47 | 78.46 | 0.01 | -0.46 | -0.52 | 0.95 | 3.19 | 0.60 | 11.62 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2016 | 28.89 | 0.14 | 33.44 | 79.83 | -0.02 | 0.01 | -0.09 | 0.90 | 2.37 | 0.57 | 16.69 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 2017 | 28.96 | 0.21 | 27.73 | 75.31 | -0.64 | 0.50 | 0.37 | 0.87 | 1.88 | 0.59 | 14.92 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2018 | 28.56 | -0.19 | 36.19 | 85.77 | 0.18 | 0.25 | 0.09 | 0.96 | 0.70 | 0.69 | 16.76 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2019 | 28.96 | 0.21 | 38.63 | 78.72 | 0.46 | -0.02 | -0.21 | 1.08 | 1.74 | 0.60 | -0.87 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 2020 | 28.30 | -0.45 | 48.74 | 86.50 | 1.28 | 0.20 | -0.03 | 0.96 | 0.55 | 0.70 | 5.97 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2021 | 29.07 | 0.32 | 41.33 | 79.19 | 0.51 | 0.39 | 0.13 | 0.52 | 1.30 | 0.64 | -38.28 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 2022 | 28.41 | -0.34 | 40.71 | 81.31 | 0.18 | 0.04 | -0.25 | 0.73 | 1.35 | 0.67 | 3.85 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 2023 | 29.53 | 0.79 | 33.83 | 77.47 | -0.36 | 0.07 | -0.26 | 0.50 | 5.00 | 0.60 | -14.03 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2024 | 28.01 | -0.74 | 55.57 | 91.62 | 1.86 | 0.57 | 0.22 | 1.91 | 0.03 | 0.80 | -0.40 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 | 28.19 | -0.55 | 43.17 | 86.19 | 0.54 | 0.86 | 0.47 | 0.70 | 2.69 | 0.67 | NaN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |