Mauritania: which indicators track drought impact?

mrt-drought 2026-04-17 (endorsed): ONM JAS forecast + CHIRPS national; activities in Guidimakha. Main season used here: Jul–Sep. Production target: Sorghum, Millet, Maize (corn) (FAOSTAT, national, % from 2001–2024 trend).

Framework area

Indicator	r with production	R²	Leave-one-out R²	p	AUC, impact seasons	AUC, CERF-dated	AUC, EM-DAT	AUC, framework bad years
Temperature	-0.74	0.55	+0.48	0.000	0.59	0.65	0.52	0.90
Biomass (zFPARc)	+0.60	0.36	+0.21	0.002	0.56	0.66	0.42	0.84
FAO ASI	-0.50	0.25	-0.30	0.012	0.53	0.58	0.46	0.77
FAO mean VHI	+0.68	0.46	+0.38	0.000	0.57	0.70	0.44	0.91
Rainfall (CHIRPS/ASAP)	+0.65	0.42	+0.27	0.001	0.63	0.73	0.52	0.84
Rainfall (ERA5)	+0.69	0.48	+0.42	0.000	0.46	0.59	0.42	0.79
SPI-3	+0.68	0.47	+0.32	0.000	0.59	0.72	0.43	0.89
Water balance	+0.63	0.40	+0.24	0.001	0.54	0.63	0.41	0.83

Combination	R²	Leave-one-out R²	Coefficients (z per sd)
Temperature + Biomass (zFPARc)	0.55	+0.44	-27.11 (p 0.007), -1.82 (p 0.843)
Temperature + Rainfall (CHIRPS/ASAP)	0.56	+0.38	-20.73 (p 0.018), +6.18 (p 0.452)
Temperature + FAO ASI	0.55	+0.34	-24.54 (p 0.001), -1.64 (p 0.804)
Biomass (zFPARc) + Rainfall (CHIRPS/ASAP)	0.48	+0.22	+10.46 (p 0.161), +15.63 (p 0.042)
Temperature + Biomass (zFPARc) + Rainfall (CHIRPS/ASAP)	0.56	+0.33	-22.27 (p 0.061), -1.86 (p 0.841), +6.19 (p 0.462)
Temperature + FAO mean VHI	0.57	+0.40	-19.37 (p 0.030), +7.74 (p 0.362)

Hot vs cool, low vs high biomass (median splits)

Quadrant	Seasons	Mean production anomaly	Impact-season rate	Seasons
hot / low biomass	9	-25.2%	44%	2002, 2006, 2011, 2014, 2015, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2021
hot / high biomass	3	+2.0%	0%	2001, 2005, 2023
cool / low biomass	3	+14.3%	0%	2003, 2013, 2020
cool / high biomass	9	+19.6%	44%	2004, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2012, 2016, 2022, 2024

Impact seasons (8): 2007, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2014, 2016, 2017, 2019.

National mean of ASAP units

Indicator	r with production	R²	Leave-one-out R²	p	AUC, impact seasons	AUC, CERF-dated	AUC, EM-DAT	AUC, framework bad years
Temperature	-0.77	0.60	+0.54	0.000	0.56	0.62	0.52	0.84
Biomass (zFPARc)	+0.70	0.48	+0.39	0.000	0.65	0.77	0.52	0.91
FAO ASI	-0.50	0.25	-1.03	0.012	0.58	0.70	0.39	0.90
FAO mean VHI	+0.70	0.48	+0.41	0.000	0.59	0.70	0.46	0.93
Rainfall (CHIRPS/ASAP)	+0.70	0.48	+0.38	0.000	0.62	0.73	0.47	0.86
Rainfall (ERA5)	+0.78	0.61	+0.55	0.000	0.55	0.73	0.46	0.76
SPI-3	+0.73	0.54	+0.43	0.000	0.60	0.72	0.43	0.93
Water balance	+0.74	0.56	+0.47	0.000	0.53	0.61	0.44	0.83

Combination	R²	Leave-one-out R²	Coefficients (z per sd)
Temperature + Biomass (zFPARc)	0.63	+0.54	-19.83 (p 0.009), +9.17 (p 0.198)
Temperature + Rainfall (CHIRPS/ASAP)	0.63	+0.51	-20.05 (p 0.010), +8.76 (p 0.229)
Temperature + FAO ASI	0.60	+0.28	-26.02 (p 0.000), -1.09 (p 0.860)
Biomass (zFPARc) + Rainfall (CHIRPS/ASAP)	0.58	+0.44	+14.54 (p 0.035), +14.43 (p 0.036)
Temperature + Biomass (zFPARc) + Rainfall (CHIRPS/ASAP)	0.65	+0.49	-15.49 (p 0.073), +7.73 (p 0.286), +7.14 (p 0.332)
Temperature + FAO mean VHI	0.62	+0.49	-20.81 (p 0.013), +7.39 (p 0.349)

Hot vs cool, low vs high biomass (median splits)

Quadrant	Seasons	Mean production anomaly	Impact-season rate	Seasons
hot / low biomass	8	-38.4%	50%	2002, 2004, 2011, 2014, 2015, 2017, 2019, 2021
hot / high biomass	4	+6.0%	0%	2001, 2005, 2006, 2023
cool / low biomass	4	+16.7%	25%	2003, 2007, 2018, 2024
cool / high biomass	8	+26.8%	38%	2008, 2009, 2010, 2012, 2013, 2016, 2020, 2022

Impact seasons (8): 2007, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2014, 2016, 2017, 2019.

How impact records were dated to seasons

Record	Period	Season	Rule
CERF 2008 Rapid Response $1.1M	2007-06-01 → 2007-10-28	2007	overlap
CERF 2009 Rapid Response $2.2M	2009-06-01 → 2009-09-28	2009	overlap
CERF 2010 Rapid Response $1.8M	2009-06-01 → 2009-09-28	2009	overlap
CERF 2011 Rapid Response $4.0M	2011-06-01 → 2011-09-28	2011	overlap
CERF 2015 Rapid Response $2.5M	2014-07-01 → 2015-08-28	2014	overlap
CERF 2018 Rapid Response $4.0M	2017-06-01 → 2017-09-28	2017	overlap
CERF 2020 Underfunded Emergencies $6.0M (undated)	2020-01-01 →	2019	undated: last-season-before-impact
CERF 2026 Rapid Response $2.5M	2026-07-01 → 2026-09-28	2026	overlap
EM-DAT 2001-9409-MRT (1000000 affected)	2001-04-01 → 2003-12-28	2000	last-season-before-impact
EM-DAT 2010-9292-MRT (838000 affected)	2010-01-01 → 2011-12-28	2009	last-season-before-impact
EM-DAT 2011-9662-MRT (723000 affected)	2011-01-01 → 2012-12-28	2010	last-season-before-impact
EM-DAT 2017-9343-MRT (3893774 affected)	2017-04-01 → 2017-08-28	2016	last-season-before-impact
EM-DAT 2018-9469-MRT (350600 affected)	2018-03-01 → 2019-12-28	2017	last-season-before-impact
EM-DAT 2020-9538-MRT (1400000 affected)	2020-06-01 → 2022-11-28	2019	last-season-before-impact

Season table

	t_JAS_aoi	t_dt_JAS_aoi	rain_JAS_aoi	wsi_JAS_aoi	spi_JAS_aoi	z_JAS_aoi	z_dt_JAS_aoi	t_JAS_nat	t_dt_JAS_nat	rain_JAS_nat	wsi_JAS_nat	spi_JAS_nat	z_JAS_nat	z_dt_JAS_nat	era5_nat	era5_aoi	asi_nat	asi_aoi	mvhi_nat	mvhi_aoi	prod_anom	impact	impact_cerf	impact_emdat	impact_plus_undated	bad_year
year
2001	30.64	0.20	35.77	75.24	0.51	0.27	0.61	30.60	0.04	29.49	64.69	0.16	-0.02	0.28	0.40	1.66	1.36	0.07	0.58	0.58	-12.30	0	0	0	0	1
2002	32.08	1.62	25.89	48.74	-0.84	-1.54	-1.23	31.81	1.24	20.28	41.15	-1.21	-1.37	-1.10	0.18	0.78	60.73	63.43	0.33	0.33	-54.33	0	0	0	0	1
2003	29.81	-0.66	37.77	76.67	0.93	-0.15	0.13	29.97	-0.61	34.03	72.42	0.86	-0.26	-0.01	0.80	3.29	0.46	0.00	0.66	0.68	30.51	0	0	0	0	0
2004	30.26	-0.21	30.29	72.24	-0.10	0.03	0.28	30.59	0.01	25.34	61.29	-0.27	-0.21	0.01	0.38	2.27	0.85	0.02	0.59	0.60	-63.26	0	0	0	0	0
2005	30.72	0.24	34.81	61.94	0.32	-0.09	0.13	30.75	0.16	29.26	58.00	0.31	0.18	0.38	0.54	2.06	0.36	0.00	0.59	0.58	23.08	0	0	0	0	0
2006	30.87	0.38	20.94	52.38	-1.10	-0.21	-0.02	30.83	0.23	21.34	55.59	-0.53	0.11	0.28	0.46	2.03	0.41	0.02	0.64	0.68	18.01	0	0	0	0	0
2007	30.05	-0.45	34.05	74.85	0.22	0.07	0.24	30.22	-0.39	28.18	68.95	0.15	-0.06	0.09	0.52	2.95	0.95	0.00	0.65	0.67	17.86	1	1	0	1	1
2008	30.01	-0.50	32.75	74.31	0.63	0.47	0.61	30.35	-0.27	26.27	65.88	0.34	0.21	0.33	0.48	2.50	0.46	0.14	0.70	0.70	21.46	0	0	0	0	0
2009	30.34	-0.18	34.33	77.54	0.67	0.22	0.33	30.61	-0.02	31.52	70.94	0.58	0.08	0.18	0.42	2.43	0.21	0.00	0.66	0.68	30.69	1	1	1	1	0
2010	29.83	-0.69	44.20	83.98	1.34	0.64	0.72	30.15	-0.49	39.92	80.61	1.36	0.37	0.45	0.84	4.33	0.03	0.00	0.76	0.78	58.30	1	0	1	1	0
2011	31.23	0.69	24.91	48.05	-1.10	-0.77	-0.72	31.32	0.67	23.64	49.97	-0.50	-0.51	-0.46	0.34	2.16	18.40	24.63	0.44	0.42	-59.24	1	1	0	1	1
2012	29.63	-0.92	46.04	83.58	1.65	0.38	0.41	29.84	-0.81	37.66	79.61	1.29	0.50	0.53	0.69	2.73	0.18	0.02	0.62	0.60	65.18	0	0	0	0	0
2013	30.45	-0.10	39.53	71.78	0.79	-0.18	-0.18	30.55	-0.11	30.71	64.91	0.49	0.24	0.24	0.57	1.95	0.70	0.78	0.56	0.53	7.74	0	0	0	0	0
2014	31.33	0.77	29.68	58.00	-0.59	-0.57	-0.60	31.22	0.55	24.18	51.44	-0.56	-0.55	-0.57	0.39	1.28	2.03	0.82	0.55	0.55	-25.15	1	1	0	1	1
2015	30.86	0.29	33.10	65.39	-0.13	-0.08	-0.13	30.86	0.19	29.44	61.29	-0.02	0.00	-0.05	0.60	2.40	0.30	0.00	0.62	0.61	-13.34	0	0	0	0	1
2016	30.21	-0.37	39.48	76.83	1.06	0.80	0.72	30.49	-0.20	32.21	68.69	0.75	0.43	0.35	0.51	2.43	0.35	0.02	0.71	0.74	-6.61	1	0	1	1	0
2017	31.33	0.74	27.32	56.88	-0.27	-0.23	-0.35	31.29	0.59	21.68	49.45	-0.37	-0.53	-0.63	0.32	1.35	7.46	5.88	0.51	0.50	-35.58	1	1	1	1	1
2018	30.66	0.06	33.88	65.11	0.06	-0.10	-0.24	30.60	-0.10	31.34	57.52	0.27	-0.33	-0.45	0.51	2.06	1.34	0.14	0.69	0.70	-0.64	0	0	0	0	0
2019	31.71	1.10	22.36	37.44	-1.64	-1.41	-1.58	31.39	0.68	20.62	41.95	-1.28	-0.88	-1.03	0.52	2.26	13.16	15.39	0.46	0.44	-15.50	1	0	1	1	1
2020	30.47	-0.15	44.80	78.68	1.03	0.23	0.03	30.58	-0.13	37.25	70.24	0.85	0.30	0.13	0.48	2.73	0.51	0.07	0.73	0.73	4.55	0	0	0	0	0
2021	31.47	0.84	30.25	60.74	-0.14	-0.47	-0.69	31.41	0.68	28.48	59.84	0.14	-0.18	-0.38	0.29	1.68	5.23	3.53	0.54	0.54	-40.70	0	0	0	0	1
2022	29.70	-0.94	41.79	76.70	1.05	1.10	0.85	29.97	-0.77	32.25	67.61	0.64	0.93	0.71	0.62	2.72	0.55	0.07	0.80	0.82	33.06	0	0	0	0	0
2023	31.26	0.61	31.14	64.66	0.38	0.58	0.30	31.51	0.76	28.79	62.56	0.51	0.53	0.28	0.30	2.05	0.80	0.17	0.65	0.66	-4.88	0	0	0	0	0
2024	30.20	-0.46	43.16	72.67	0.41	0.44	0.13	30.37	-0.38	34.64	64.02	0.42	0.38	0.11	0.70	2.89	0.55	0.04	0.73	0.72	19.27	0	0	0	0	0
2025	29.75	-0.91	28.09	64.21	-0.22	0.84	0.50	30.08	-0.68	26.72	60.80	0.06	0.62	0.32	0.48	2.83	0.40	0.02	0.77	0.78	NaN	0	0	0	0	0