ken-drought 2023-02-19 (development; IFRC EAP operational): KMD OND forecast over 23 ASAL counties. Main season used here: Mar–May (long rains). Production target: Maize (corn) (FAOSTAT, national, % from 2001–2024 trend).
| Indicator | r with production | R² | Leave-one-out R² | p | AUC, impact seasons | AUC, CERF-dated | AUC, EM-DAT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Temperature | -0.35 | 0.13 | -0.01 | 0.089 | 0.58 | 0.81 | 0.37 |
| Biomass (zFPARc) | +0.40 | 0.16 | +0.02 | 0.052 | 0.41 | 0.81 | 0.15 |
| Rainfall (CHIRPS/ASAP) | +0.51 | 0.27 | +0.14 | 0.010 | 0.50 | 0.82 | 0.24 |
| Rainfall (ERA5) | +0.56 | 0.32 | +0.18 | 0.004 | 0.46 | 0.82 | 0.19 |
| SPI-3 | +0.49 | 0.24 | +0.12 | 0.015 | 0.49 | 0.84 | 0.22 |
| Water balance | +0.44 | 0.19 | +0.04 | 0.032 | 0.47 | 0.83 | 0.20 |
| Combination | R² | Leave-one-out R² | Coefficients (z per sd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Temperature + Biomass (zFPARc) | 0.17 | -0.02 | -1.61 (p 0.600), +3.26 (p 0.292) |
| Temperature + Rainfall (CHIRPS/ASAP) | 0.27 | +0.06 | +0.63 (p 0.838), +6.09 (p 0.058) |
| Biomass (zFPARc) + Rainfall (CHIRPS/ASAP) | 0.27 | +0.05 | -0.71 (p 0.844), +6.21 (p 0.097) |
| Temperature + Biomass (zFPARc) + Rainfall (CHIRPS/ASAP) | 0.27 | -0.04 | +0.52 (p 0.873), -0.58 (p 0.880), +6.48 (p 0.123) |
| Quadrant | Seasons | Mean production anomaly | Impact-season rate | Seasons |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| hot / low biomass | 9 | -3.5% | 56% | 2003, 2005, 2009, 2011, 2012, 2016, 2017, 2019, 2022 |
| hot / high biomass | 3 | -1.7% | 67% | 2004, 2007, 2024 |
| cool / low biomass | 3 | +3.5% | 33% | 2015, 2021, 2023 |
| cool / high biomass | 9 | +2.9% | 56% | 2001, 2002, 2006, 2008, 2010, 2013, 2014, 2018, 2020 |
Impact seasons (13): 2004, 2005, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2013, 2016, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2024.
| Indicator | r with production | R² | Leave-one-out R² | p | AUC, impact seasons | AUC, CERF-dated | AUC, EM-DAT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Temperature | -0.36 | 0.13 | -0.01 | 0.082 | 0.57 | 0.77 | 0.41 |
| Biomass (zFPARc) | +0.34 | 0.11 | -0.05 | 0.108 | 0.39 | 0.79 | 0.16 |
| FAO ASI | -0.43 | 0.18 | +0.04 | 0.038 | 0.44 | 0.71 | 0.23 |
| FAO mean VHI | +0.48 | 0.23 | +0.10 | 0.018 | 0.44 | 0.74 | 0.23 |
| Rainfall (CHIRPS/ASAP) | +0.52 | 0.27 | +0.14 | 0.009 | 0.48 | 0.81 | 0.24 |
| Rainfall (ERA5) | +0.58 | 0.34 | +0.20 | 0.003 | 0.47 | 0.83 | 0.20 |
| SPI-3 | +0.46 | 0.21 | +0.08 | 0.024 | 0.46 | 0.83 | 0.25 |
| Water balance | +0.41 | 0.16 | -0.04 | 0.049 | 0.46 | 0.82 | 0.20 |
| Combination | R² | Leave-one-out R² | Coefficients (z per sd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Temperature + Biomass (zFPARc) | 0.15 | -0.09 | -2.72 (p 0.354), +1.94 (p 0.508) |
| Temperature + Rainfall (CHIRPS/ASAP) | 0.27 | +0.06 | -0.61 (p 0.820), +5.29 (p 0.058) |
| Temperature + FAO ASI | 0.21 | +0.02 | -2.23 (p 0.366), -3.59 (p 0.152) |
| Biomass (zFPARc) + Rainfall (CHIRPS/ASAP) | 0.27 | +0.05 | -0.46 (p 0.872), +5.99 (p 0.046) |
| Temperature + Biomass (zFPARc) + Rainfall (CHIRPS/ASAP) | 0.27 | -0.05 | -0.88 (p 0.764), -0.81 (p 0.797), +5.67 (p 0.080) |
| Temperature + FAO mean VHI | 0.25 | +0.07 | -1.75 (p 0.476), +4.35 (p 0.084) |
| Quadrant | Seasons | Mean production anomaly | Impact-season rate | Seasons |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| hot / low biomass | 9 | -4.0% | 56% | 2003, 2005, 2009, 2011, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2019, 2022 |
| hot / high biomass | 3 | -1.7% | 67% | 2004, 2007, 2024 |
| cool / low biomass | 3 | +2.7% | 33% | 2012, 2014, 2021 |
| cool / high biomass | 9 | +3.6% | 56% | 2001, 2002, 2006, 2008, 2010, 2013, 2018, 2020, 2023 |
Impact seasons (13): 2004, 2005, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2013, 2016, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2024.
| Record | Period | Season | Rule |
|---|---|---|---|
| CERF 2006 Rapid Response $2.1M | 2005-10-01 → 2005-12-28 | 2005 | last-season-before-impact |
| CERF 2008 Rapid Response $5.1M | 2008-03-01 → 2008-05-28 | 2008 | overlap |
| CERF 2009 Rapid Response $5.0M | 2008-10-01 → 2009-05-28 | 2009 | overlap |
| CERF 2009 Underfunded Emergencies $8.0M (undated) | 2009-01-01 → | 2008 | undated: last-season-before-impact |
| CERF 2011 Rapid Response $13.6M | 2010-10-01 → 2011-05-28 | 2011 | overlap |
| CERF 2012 Rapid Response $2.0M (undated) | 2012-01-01 → | 2011 | undated: last-season-before-impact |
| CERF 2017 Rapid Response $10.3M | 2016-03-01 → 2017-05-28 | 2016 | overlap |
| CERF 2019 Rapid Response $5.0M | 2019-03-01 → 2019-05-28 | 2019 | overlap |
| CERF 2021 Rapid Response $5.0M | 2020-10-01 → 2021-05-28 | 2021 | overlap |
| CERF 2022 Underfunded Emergencies $6.0M (undated) | 2022-01-01 → | 2021 | undated: last-season-before-impact |
| CERF 2022 Rapid Response $4.0M | 2020-10-01 → 2022-05-28 | 2021 | overlap |
| CERF 2023 Underfunded Emergencies $8.0M (undated) | 2023-01-01 → | 2022 | undated: last-season-before-impact |
| EM-DAT 1999-9388-KEN (23000000 affected) | 1999-12-01 → 2002-12-28 | 1999 | last-season-before-impact |
| EM-DAT 2004-9288-KEN (2300000 affected) | 2004-07-01 → 2004-12-28 | 2004 | last-season-before-impact |
| EM-DAT 2005-9719-KEN (3500000 affected) | 2005-12-01 → 2006-12-28 | 2005 | last-season-before-impact |
| EM-DAT 2008-9302-KEN (3800000 affected) | 2008-07-01 → 2009-12-28 | 2008 | last-season-before-impact |
| EM-DAT 2010-9082-KEN (4300000 affected) | 2011-01-01 → 2011-01-28 | 2010 | last-season-before-impact |
| EM-DAT 2011-9663-KEN (3750000 affected) | 2011-01-01 → 2012-12-28 | 2010 | last-season-before-impact |
| EM-DAT 2014-9404-KEN (1600000 affected) | 2014-01-01 → 2015-05-28 | 2013 | last-season-before-impact |
| EM-DAT 2016-9452-KEN (3400000 affected) | 2016-06-01 → 2018-01-28 | 2016 | last-season-before-impact |
| EM-DAT 2019-9145-KEN (2600000 affected) | 2019-01-01 → 2019-09-28 | 2018 | last-season-before-impact |
| EM-DAT 2020-9609-KEN (4500000 affected) | 2020-12-01 → 2022-12-28 | 2020 | last-season-before-impact |
| EM-DAT 2025-9222-KEN (2150000 affected) | 2025-01-01 → 2025-12-28 | 2024 | last-season-before-impact |
| t_long_aoi | t_dt_long_aoi | rain_long_aoi | wsi_long_aoi | spi_long_aoi | z_long_aoi | z_dt_long_aoi | t_long_nat | t_dt_long_nat | rain_long_nat | wsi_long_nat | spi_long_nat | z_long_nat | z_dt_long_nat | t_short_aoi | t_dt_short_aoi | rain_short_aoi | wsi_short_aoi | spi_short_aoi | z_short_aoi | z_dt_short_aoi | t_short_nat | t_dt_short_nat | rain_short_nat | wsi_short_nat | spi_short_nat | z_short_nat | z_dt_short_nat | era5_nat | era5_aoi | asi_nat | mvhi_nat | prod_anom | impact | impact_cerf | impact_emdat | impact_plus_undated | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| year | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2001 | 23.74 | -0.12 | 34.33 | 80.14 | -0.17 | 0.06 | 0.19 | 21.23 | -0.26 | 48.84 | 89.69 | -0.16 | 0.13 | 0.27 | 22.98 | 0.05 | 27.49 | 68.19 | -0.14 | -0.47 | -0.48 | 20.99 | 0.02 | 32.84 | 80.50 | 0.01 | -0.36 | -0.17 | 2.41 | 2.72 | 0.74 | 0.57 | 6.80 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2002 | 23.59 | -0.29 | 43.09 | 83.36 | 0.34 | 0.23 | 0.35 | 21.30 | -0.21 | 57.77 | 90.83 | 0.34 | 0.22 | 0.36 | 23.02 | 0.06 | 39.26 | 72.88 | 0.12 | 0.35 | 0.34 | 21.08 | 0.07 | 45.65 | 82.82 | -0.01 | 0.03 | 0.20 | 3.03 | 3.37 | 2.33 | 0.55 | -9.78 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2003 | 24.07 | 0.17 | 40.21 | 75.73 | -0.04 | -0.16 | -0.06 | 21.70 | 0.17 | 56.57 | 85.95 | -0.12 | -0.46 | -0.34 | 23.17 | 0.17 | 27.01 | 68.56 | -0.43 | -0.06 | -0.08 | 21.24 | 0.22 | 28.29 | 80.95 | -0.65 | -0.28 | -0.12 | 2.72 | 3.26 | 1.08 | 0.60 | -0.60 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2004 | 23.97 | 0.05 | 27.73 | 78.86 | -0.34 | 0.04 | 0.14 | 21.54 | -0.01 | 41.15 | 88.74 | -0.27 | 0.08 | 0.18 | 22.96 | -0.07 | 30.54 | 70.02 | -0.07 | 0.12 | 0.11 | 21.07 | 0.01 | 33.27 | 80.44 | -0.23 | 0.01 | 0.15 | 2.30 | 2.58 | 14.13 | 0.47 | -6.37 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 2005 | 24.32 | 0.37 | 34.90 | 71.99 | -0.46 | -0.31 | -0.22 | 21.88 | 0.32 | 50.93 | 85.73 | -0.37 | -0.15 | -0.06 | 23.41 | 0.35 | 15.54 | 56.67 | -1.19 | -0.67 | -0.68 | 21.56 | 0.48 | 18.31 | 71.35 | -1.34 | -0.71 | -0.58 | 2.60 | 2.94 | 4.71 | 0.53 | 2.24 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 2006 | 23.88 | -0.09 | 41.19 | 86.99 | 0.36 | 0.01 | 0.09 | 21.37 | -0.21 | 58.92 | 93.07 | 0.52 | 0.36 | 0.44 | 22.81 | -0.28 | 62.56 | 83.41 | 1.27 | 0.58 | 0.57 | 20.93 | -0.18 | 69.52 | 88.94 | 1.13 | 0.20 | 0.32 | 3.02 | 3.38 | 11.49 | 0.49 | 12.00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2007 | 24.14 | 0.15 | 36.52 | 75.07 | -0.26 | 0.17 | 0.23 | 21.69 | 0.08 | 46.51 | 86.87 | -0.31 | 0.12 | 0.19 | 22.99 | -0.12 | 24.39 | 71.23 | -0.26 | 0.16 | 0.16 | 21.07 | -0.06 | 25.54 | 81.48 | -0.52 | -0.03 | 0.07 | 2.08 | 2.33 | 7.06 | 0.52 | -0.94 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2008 | 23.68 | -0.33 | 34.70 | 80.20 | -0.08 | 0.13 | 0.18 | 21.30 | -0.32 | 44.89 | 89.51 | -0.33 | 0.02 | 0.08 | 23.32 | 0.17 | 25.73 | 65.50 | -0.18 | -0.02 | -0.03 | 21.28 | 0.12 | 32.13 | 78.18 | -0.01 | 0.02 | 0.10 | 2.07 | 2.34 | 6.55 | 0.49 | -21.46 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 2009 | 24.45 | 0.42 | 20.77 | 67.69 | -1.20 | -1.10 | -1.05 | 22.00 | 0.36 | 36.71 | 82.09 | -1.05 | -0.96 | -0.91 | 23.37 | 0.19 | 36.94 | 72.54 | -0.02 | -0.38 | -0.38 | 21.38 | 0.19 | 41.20 | 82.12 | -0.13 | -0.67 | -0.60 | 1.52 | 1.52 | 40.80 | 0.37 | -20.59 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 2010 | 23.87 | -0.18 | 49.23 | 89.83 | 0.96 | 0.98 | 1.01 | 21.56 | -0.10 | 64.21 | 94.49 | 1.06 | 0.98 | 1.01 | 23.47 | 0.26 | 19.09 | 63.00 | -0.86 | -0.36 | -0.36 | 21.34 | 0.13 | 26.93 | 78.72 | -0.63 | -0.13 | -0.08 | 3.58 | 3.69 | 0.88 | 0.58 | 10.73 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 2011 | 24.47 | 0.39 | 22.92 | 64.26 | -1.03 | -0.72 | -0.69 | 21.94 | 0.26 | 36.90 | 80.55 | -1.00 | -0.51 | -0.48 | 22.78 | -0.46 | 47.42 | 86.64 | 1.11 | 0.84 | 0.84 | 20.82 | -0.42 | 53.11 | 91.72 | 1.09 | 0.71 | 0.74 | 1.58 | 1.90 | 24.05 | 0.44 | 5.99 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 2012 | 24.07 | -0.02 | 37.35 | 70.41 | -0.26 | -0.49 | -0.48 | 21.60 | -0.11 | 57.00 | 84.10 | -0.02 | -0.76 | -0.75 | 23.19 | -0.09 | 36.07 | 75.37 | 0.13 | 0.17 | 0.17 | 21.09 | -0.18 | 46.04 | 86.05 | 0.40 | 0.18 | 0.20 | 2.48 | 2.75 | 8.08 | 0.52 | 15.61 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2013 | 23.77 | -0.34 | 49.19 | 89.85 | 0.92 | 0.58 | 0.58 | 21.36 | -0.36 | 64.68 | 94.35 | 0.97 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 23.16 | -0.15 | 26.33 | 70.22 | -0.35 | -0.14 | -0.14 | 21.06 | -0.24 | 32.61 | 82.62 | -0.26 | -0.12 | -0.12 | 3.57 | 4.03 | 2.32 | 0.55 | 8.84 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 2014 | 23.93 | -0.21 | 31.55 | 79.42 | -0.22 | -0.01 | -0.02 | 21.55 | -0.19 | 40.83 | 88.88 | -0.55 | -0.00 | -0.02 | 23.35 | 0.02 | 30.58 | 70.56 | 0.01 | -0.15 | -0.15 | 21.27 | -0.06 | 36.38 | 82.75 | 0.06 | -0.01 | -0.02 | 2.40 | 2.62 | 15.95 | 0.46 | 4.62 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2015 | 24.10 | -0.06 | 39.44 | 88.34 | 0.16 | -0.23 | -0.26 | 21.73 | -0.03 | 56.83 | 93.34 | 0.10 | -0.52 | -0.55 | 23.59 | 0.23 | 42.24 | 76.05 | 0.53 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 21.46 | 0.11 | 52.75 | 84.63 | 0.75 | 0.06 | 0.03 | 3.03 | 3.36 | 11.26 | 0.48 | 11.99 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2016 | 24.58 | 0.40 | 35.72 | 79.38 | -0.05 | -0.15 | -0.18 | 22.17 | 0.40 | 53.06 | 89.45 | -0.03 | -0.14 | -0.18 | 23.48 | 0.08 | 20.52 | 53.94 | -0.90 | -0.89 | -0.88 | 21.63 | 0.25 | 22.18 | 70.00 | -1.05 | -0.83 | -0.87 | 2.64 | 2.95 | 6.72 | 0.52 | -3.86 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 2017 | 24.52 | 0.32 | 28.02 | 68.61 | -0.71 | -0.97 | -1.01 | 22.18 | 0.38 | 42.54 | 82.90 | -0.52 | -0.62 | -0.67 | 23.39 | -0.04 | 30.24 | 71.56 | 0.19 | -0.16 | -0.16 | 21.46 | 0.05 | 34.85 | 83.21 | 0.22 | 0.03 | -0.03 | 2.05 | 2.49 | 22.89 | 0.44 | -9.75 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2018 | 23.08 | -1.14 | 77.49 | 95.75 | 1.93 | 0.99 | 0.94 | 20.84 | -0.98 | 92.77 | 97.56 | 1.77 | 0.76 | 0.70 | 23.48 | 0.03 | 28.10 | 67.78 | -0.46 | -0.07 | -0.07 | 21.53 | 0.10 | 34.39 | 80.62 | -0.53 | -0.07 | -0.15 | 5.30 | 6.15 | 3.07 | 0.62 | 11.88 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 2019 | 25.06 | 0.81 | 28.13 | 54.49 | -1.00 | -1.03 | -1.09 | 22.69 | 0.85 | 39.57 | 70.67 | -1.13 | -1.15 | -1.22 | 22.93 | -0.56 | 73.69 | 90.36 | 1.82 | 1.23 | 1.24 | 20.97 | -0.49 | 82.55 | 94.79 | 1.88 | 0.88 | 0.78 | 1.83 | 2.06 | 16.57 | 0.47 | -1.73 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 2020 | 24.01 | -0.25 | 59.17 | 91.73 | 1.45 | 1.10 | 1.03 | 21.61 | -0.25 | 77.27 | 95.80 | 1.62 | 1.00 | 0.91 | 23.52 | 0.00 | 32.19 | 68.46 | 0.09 | 0.38 | 0.39 | 21.37 | -0.12 | 40.21 | 82.27 | 0.40 | 0.52 | 0.41 | 3.86 | 4.46 | 0.65 | 0.61 | 2.34 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 2021 | 24.23 | -0.06 | 31.03 | 74.70 | -0.31 | -0.23 | -0.31 | 21.74 | -0.13 | 50.94 | 86.80 | 0.11 | -0.06 | -0.15 | 23.91 | 0.36 | 31.30 | 46.79 | -0.44 | -0.83 | -0.82 | 21.83 | 0.31 | 35.20 | 66.42 | -0.23 | -0.44 | -0.56 | 1.81 | 2.02 | 6.29 | 0.51 | -12.11 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 2022 | 24.66 | 0.35 | 25.68 | 68.05 | -0.61 | -0.73 | -0.82 | 22.18 | 0.29 | 42.39 | 82.43 | -0.31 | -0.53 | -0.64 | 23.46 | -0.12 | 25.89 | 63.25 | -0.38 | -0.80 | -0.80 | 21.40 | -0.14 | 41.58 | 78.98 | 0.26 | -0.56 | -0.71 | 1.46 | 1.38 | 17.02 | 0.45 | -19.25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2023 | 23.91 | -0.42 | 47.70 | 90.36 | 0.67 | 0.08 | -0.03 | 21.58 | -0.33 | 61.83 | 94.55 | 0.58 | 0.21 | 0.09 | 23.44 | -0.17 | 66.00 | 82.42 | 1.66 | 0.71 | 0.72 | 21.56 | -0.01 | 66.47 | 89.41 | 1.53 | 0.71 | 0.55 | 2.91 | 2.95 | 3.58 | 0.54 | 10.60 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2024 | 24.57 | 0.22 | 55.42 | 91.98 | 0.96 | 0.95 | 0.83 | 22.23 | 0.29 | 71.35 | 95.86 | 0.87 | 0.87 | 0.74 | 23.81 | 0.17 | 33.93 | 61.05 | 0.07 | 0.14 | 0.16 | 21.71 | 0.11 | 42.32 | 76.75 | 0.23 | 0.36 | 0.18 | 3.42 | 4.35 | 1.97 | 0.58 | 2.32 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 2025 | 24.18 | -0.19 | 47.01 | 90.77 | 0.60 | 0.85 | 0.73 | 21.79 | -0.16 | 66.83 | 95.17 | 0.63 | 0.74 | 0.60 | 23.75 | 0.07 | 24.03 | 57.14 | -0.70 | -0.20 | -0.19 | 21.63 | 0.00 | 33.91 | 74.19 | -0.45 | 0.13 | -0.06 | 2.98 | 3.27 | 1.97 | 0.55 | NaN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |