Honduras: which indicators track drought impact?

lac-dry-corridor 2026-03-13 (endorsed). Main season used here: May–Aug (Primera). Production target: Maize (corn), Beans, dry (FAOSTAT, national, % from 2001–2024 trend).

Framework area

Indicator	r with production	R²	Leave-one-out R²	p	AUC, impact seasons	AUC, CERF-dated	AUC, EM-DAT	AUC, framework bad years
Temperature	-0.02	0.00	-0.18	0.939	0.24	0.43	0.19	0.31
Biomass (zFPARc)	+0.00	0.00	-0.21	0.996	0.58	0.64	0.46	0.60
FAO ASI	-0.18	0.03	-0.28	0.406	0.69	0.71	0.60	0.71
FAO mean VHI	-0.10	0.01	-0.20	0.653	0.70	0.81	0.59	0.77
Rainfall (CHIRPS/ASAP)	-0.12	0.01	-0.15	0.583	0.64	0.67	0.50	0.69
Rainfall (ERA5)	-0.10	0.01	-0.16	0.649	0.73	0.75	0.63	0.72
SPI-3	-0.03	0.00	-0.20	0.872	0.64	0.60	0.53	0.55
Water balance	-0.05	0.00	-0.16	0.805	0.53	0.75	0.36	0.72

Combination	R²	Leave-one-out R²	Coefficients (z per sd)
Temperature + Biomass (zFPARc)	0.00	-0.31	-0.12 (p 0.937), -0.04 (p 0.980)
Temperature + Rainfall (CHIRPS/ASAP)	0.02	-0.24	-0.40 (p 0.790), -0.90 (p 0.552)
Temperature + FAO ASI	0.03	-0.37	+0.07 (p 0.960), -1.17 (p 0.418)
Biomass (zFPARc) + Rainfall (CHIRPS/ASAP)	0.03	-0.25	+1.27 (p 0.548), -1.70 (p 0.421)
Temperature + Biomass (zFPARc) + Rainfall (CHIRPS/ASAP)	0.03	-0.37	-0.22 (p 0.889), +1.20 (p 0.587), -1.73 (p 0.427)
Temperature + FAO mean VHI	0.01	-0.29	-0.28 (p 0.850), -0.70 (p 0.637)

Hot vs cool, low vs high biomass (median splits)

Quadrant	Seasons	Mean production anomaly	Impact-season rate	Seasons
hot / low biomass	8	-1.8%	38%	2001, 2003, 2004, 2006, 2014, 2019, 2021, 2024
hot / high biomass	4	+3.4%	0%	2005, 2007, 2016, 2023
cool / low biomass	4	+1.4%	25%	2002, 2008, 2015, 2020
cool / high biomass	8	-0.5%	62%	2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2017, 2018, 2022

Impact seasons (9): 2001, 2004, 2009, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2018, 2022.

National mean of ASAP units

Indicator	r with production	R²	Leave-one-out R²	p	AUC, impact seasons	AUC, CERF-dated	AUC, EM-DAT	AUC, framework bad years
Temperature	+0.07	0.00	-0.16	0.760	0.11	0.49	0.03	0.36
Biomass (zFPARc)	-0.37	0.14	+0.01	0.075	0.48	0.67	0.32	0.57
FAO ASI	-0.10	0.01	-0.20	0.637	0.68	0.70	0.58	0.69
FAO mean VHI	-0.14	0.02	-0.16	0.526	0.71	0.82	0.59	0.76
Rainfall (CHIRPS/ASAP)	-0.19	0.04	-0.12	0.375	0.67	0.81	0.51	0.81
Rainfall (ERA5)	-0.23	0.06	-0.09	0.270	0.68	0.79	0.56	0.78
SPI-3	-0.21	0.04	-0.14	0.334	0.63	0.78	0.48	0.74
Water balance	-0.28	0.08	-0.06	0.181	0.47	0.75	0.33	0.75

Combination	R²	Leave-one-out R²	Coefficients (z per sd)
Temperature + Biomass (zFPARc)	0.14	-0.05	-0.19 (p 0.891), -2.46 (p 0.085)
Temperature + Rainfall (CHIRPS/ASAP)	0.04	-0.20	+0.14 (p 0.924), -1.20 (p 0.413)
Temperature + FAO ASI	0.02	-0.28	+0.58 (p 0.689), -0.78 (p 0.594)
Biomass (zFPARc) + Rainfall (CHIRPS/ASAP)	0.14	-0.07	-2.75 (p 0.124), +0.53 (p 0.762)
Temperature + Biomass (zFPARc) + Rainfall (CHIRPS/ASAP)	0.14	-0.14	-0.15 (p 0.918), -2.77 (p 0.133), +0.51 (p 0.777)
Temperature + FAO mean VHI	0.02	-0.25	+0.27 (p 0.853), -0.84 (p 0.566)

Hot vs cool, low vs high biomass (median splits)

Quadrant	Seasons	Mean production anomaly	Impact-season rate	Seasons
hot / low biomass	8	+4.6%	12%	2002, 2003, 2007, 2015, 2016, 2021, 2023, 2024
hot / high biomass	4	-4.5%	0%	2005, 2010, 2019, 2020
cool / low biomass	4	-2.3%	50%	2001, 2006, 2008, 2014
cool / high biomass	8	-1.0%	75%	2004, 2009, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2017, 2018, 2022

Impact seasons (9): 2001, 2004, 2009, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2018, 2022.

How impact records were dated to seasons

Record	Period	Season	Rule
CERF 2009 Rapid Response $1.6M	2009-05-01 → 2009-11-28	2009	overlap
CERF 2014 Rapid Response $2.6M	2014-06-01 → 2014-08-28	2014	overlap
CERF 2015 Rapid Response $2.2M	2015-05-01 → 2015-09-28	2015	overlap
CERF 2019 Underfunded Emergencies $3.0M (undated)	2019-01-01 →	2018	undated: last-season-before-impact
CERF 2020 Underfunded Emergencies $5.0M (undated)	2020-01-01 →	2019	undated: last-season-before-impact
CERF 2026 Rapid Response $4.0M	2026-05-01 → 2026-08-28	2026	overlap
EM-DAT 2000-9860-HND (1125 affected)	2000-07-01 → 2000-12-28	2000	last-season-before-impact
EM-DAT 2001-9383-HND (195000 affected)	2001-07-01 → 2004-12-28	2001	last-season-before-impact
EM-DAT 2002-9838-HND (220000 affected)	2002-01-01 → 2002-12-28	2001	last-season-before-impact
EM-DAT 2004-9363-HND (137500 affected)	2004-07-01 → 2004-12-28	2004	last-season-before-impact
EM-DAT 2009-9559-HND (45000 affected)	2009-11-01 → 2011-02-28	2009	last-season-before-impact
EM-DAT 2012-9379-HND (125000 affected)	2012-09-01 → 2012-09-28	2012	last-season-before-impact
EM-DAT 2014-9332-HND (2023000 affected)	2014-04-01 → 2015-07-28	2013	last-season-before-impact
EM-DAT 2018-9277-HND (360000 affected)	2018-06-01 → 2019-03-28	2018	last-season-before-impact
EM-DAT 2023-9167-HND (10300 affected)	2023-01-01 → 2023-07-28	2022	last-season-before-impact

Season table

	t_primera_aoi	t_dt_primera_aoi	rain_primera_aoi	wsi_primera_aoi	spi_primera_aoi	z_primera_aoi	z_dt_primera_aoi	t_primera_nat	t_dt_primera_nat	rain_primera_nat	wsi_primera_nat	spi_primera_nat	z_primera_nat	z_dt_primera_nat	t_postrera_aoi	t_dt_postrera_aoi	rain_postrera_aoi	wsi_postrera_aoi	spi_postrera_aoi	z_postrera_aoi	z_dt_postrera_aoi	t_postrera_nat	t_dt_postrera_nat	rain_postrera_nat	wsi_postrera_nat	spi_postrera_nat	z_postrera_nat	z_dt_postrera_nat	era5_nat	era5_aoi	asi_nat	asi_aoi	mvhi_nat	mvhi_aoi	prod_anom	impact	impact_cerf	impact_emdat	impact_plus_undated	bad_year
year
2001	23.07	0.02	37.36	87.03	-1.28	-1.18	-0.81	23.84	-0.30	60.71	94.71	-0.71	-1.00	-0.85	21.02	-0.57	30.77	88.20	-0.81	-1.28	-0.97	22.16	-0.51	64.01	96.89	-0.20	-0.75	-0.55	4.67	3.80	4.18	11.50	0.51	0.47	8.70	1	0	1	1	0
2002	22.71	-0.36	49.28	87.46	0.40	-0.58	-0.24	24.18	-0.01	60.50	91.65	-0.19	-0.43	-0.30	21.92	0.29	31.03	87.37	-1.21	-0.51	-0.22	22.87	0.17	53.04	95.45	-0.81	-0.37	-0.19	5.90	5.90	2.34	5.35	0.50	0.44	8.83	0	0	0	0	0
2003	23.20	0.09	55.19	94.32	0.53	-0.55	-0.25	24.33	0.11	65.06	97.41	-0.07	-0.19	-0.07	22.19	0.54	44.78	94.26	-0.32	-0.17	0.09	22.99	0.25	71.26	98.56	-0.30	-0.02	0.14	5.58	5.50	6.40	1.08	0.51	0.50	4.73	0	0	0	0	0
2004	23.21	0.08	34.80	94.72	-0.86	-0.84	-0.56	24.07	-0.19	54.62	98.36	-0.46	-0.16	-0.05	22.44	0.75	36.31	88.05	-0.64	-0.99	-0.76	23.13	0.35	53.51	97.23	-0.85	-0.28	-0.14	5.48	3.98	10.16	27.40	0.48	0.42	-8.40	1	0	1	1	0
2005	23.27	0.12	82.13	98.49	1.86	0.57	0.81	24.45	0.16	85.93	98.95	1.14	0.31	0.41	21.32	-0.40	57.31	99.07	0.64	0.49	0.70	22.52	-0.29	87.85	99.23	0.70	0.08	0.21	7.97	8.22	0.01	0.00	0.58	0.58	-5.46	0	0	0	0	0
2006	23.47	0.29	48.91	95.86	0.29	-0.70	-0.48	24.25	-0.08	75.94	98.20	1.02	-0.16	-0.08	22.08	0.32	39.56	89.05	-0.76	-0.63	-0.45	23.02	0.17	56.93	97.95	-0.63	0.04	0.16	6.38	5.41	0.00	0.00	0.58	0.55	-6.34	0	0	0	0	0
2007	23.37	0.15	51.12	96.10	-0.09	0.18	0.36	24.33	-0.05	62.39	96.51	-0.53	-0.18	-0.10	21.01	-0.78	51.36	97.74	0.50	0.16	0.32	22.27	-0.62	77.37	98.56	0.44	-0.05	0.05	5.60	5.86	0.27	0.16	0.54	0.54	14.42	0	0	0	0	0
2008	23.13	-0.12	58.32	90.10	0.27	-0.75	-0.59	24.13	-0.29	74.91	96.37	0.60	-0.29	-0.23	21.15	-0.67	79.90	95.91	1.73	-0.30	-0.17	22.24	-0.68	99.60	98.33	1.37	-0.41	-0.33	6.21	5.94	0.08	0.33	0.59	0.60	-4.06	0	0	0	0	0
2009	23.04	-0.23	59.68	96.77	1.03	0.26	0.39	24.33	-0.13	66.84	97.98	0.20	0.27	0.32	22.48	0.62	23.72	74.83	-1.82	-0.21	-0.11	23.42	0.46	48.28	95.22	-1.42	0.12	0.18	5.89	5.85	0.57	0.98	0.53	0.51	2.31	1	1	1	1	1
2010	23.03	-0.27	98.96	99.51	2.20	0.84	0.94	24.50	0.01	104.42	99.63	1.87	0.63	0.67	21.19	-0.70	48.19	98.21	0.89	0.62	0.70	22.51	-0.49	63.29	98.34	0.35	0.16	0.21	8.54	9.28	0.01	0.00	0.62	0.64	-3.86	0	0	0	0	0
2011	23.17	-0.16	71.36	97.78	1.29	0.43	0.49	24.45	-0.08	81.40	97.99	0.82	0.09	0.12	21.23	-0.69	64.45	97.58	0.98	0.56	0.61	22.53	-0.50	80.32	98.82	0.75	0.15	0.18	6.95	7.26	0.06	0.00	0.60	0.64	-5.62	0	0	0	0	0
2012	22.89	-0.47	63.52	97.53	0.69	0.78	0.81	24.22	-0.35	75.19	98.42	0.45	0.63	0.64	21.56	-0.40	37.74	94.65	-0.11	0.51	0.54	22.47	-0.59	56.24	97.75	-0.20	0.36	0.38	6.47	6.52	0.10	0.00	0.56	0.57	-10.20	1	0	1	1	0
2013	23.29	-0.09	55.25	96.84	0.16	0.20	0.20	24.33	-0.28	69.39	98.57	0.25	0.02	0.02	22.16	0.17	68.72	96.89	1.12	0.34	0.34	23.21	0.11	80.93	99.08	0.42	0.04	0.04	5.97	4.89	0.41	0.10	0.55	0.57	0.48	1	0	1	1	0
2014	23.45	0.04	36.11	83.34	-1.16	-1.00	-1.03	24.55	-0.09	54.13	94.98	-0.92	-0.28	-0.30	21.47	-0.56	44.77	84.44	-0.02	-0.93	-0.95	22.75	-0.39	79.34	95.88	0.33	-0.36	-0.38	5.09	4.52	2.11	4.56	0.51	0.48	-7.63	1	1	0	1	1
2015	23.45	0.00	33.89	81.13	-0.32	-0.37	-0.43	24.84	0.15	41.22	90.84	-1.08	-0.80	-0.82	22.63	0.57	50.65	77.15	-0.29	-0.47	-0.52	23.83	0.66	70.28	91.51	-0.43	-0.71	-0.74	5.05	4.47	7.63	7.43	0.46	0.45	1.33	1	1	0	1	1
2016	23.92	0.44	53.39	91.26	-0.08	0.43	0.33	24.99	0.26	61.85	96.50	-0.46	-0.12	-0.15	22.06	-0.03	47.00	93.94	0.47	0.43	0.35	23.08	-0.13	61.03	98.29	-0.35	0.10	0.05	5.48	5.27	0.90	0.34	0.52	0.55	-0.07	0	0	0	0	0
2017	23.18	-0.32	56.62	97.66	0.45	0.52	0.40	24.64	-0.13	80.28	98.97	0.99	0.33	0.28	21.85	-0.28	62.84	96.93	0.91	0.49	0.38	23.07	-0.18	78.37	99.09	0.45	0.39	0.33	6.87	6.82	0.02	0.00	0.61	0.62	6.67	0	0	0	0	0
2018	23.04	-0.49	48.42	92.08	0.35	0.17	0.01	24.45	-0.35	57.04	96.00	-0.18	0.16	0.09	22.01	-0.15	49.83	86.06	0.09	-0.08	-0.21	23.34	0.05	57.55	95.06	-0.60	-0.10	-0.18	5.55	5.40	1.62	1.76	0.54	0.54	8.07	1	0	1	1	1
2019	24.02	0.46	26.03	86.22	-1.65	-0.26	-0.45	25.29	0.45	45.62	94.42	-1.34	0.12	0.04	22.60	0.41	35.04	72.33	-1.18	-0.81	-0.97	23.70	0.37	55.92	92.51	-0.85	-0.18	-0.28	4.72	4.34	7.59	9.68	0.50	0.46	-8.05	0	0	0	1	0
2020	23.57	-0.02	55.05	96.49	0.27	0.13	-0.08	24.90	0.02	68.87	97.99	-0.00	0.10	0.01	22.26	0.03	107.99	98.43	1.65	0.32	0.13	23.44	0.08	144.54	99.34	1.76	0.24	0.13	6.42	6.44	0.79	0.64	0.57	0.60	-0.60	0	0	0	0	0
2021	23.89	0.27	34.43	77.64	-0.94	-0.43	-0.68	25.01	0.09	56.08	93.52	-0.66	0.05	-0.05	22.60	0.34	32.94	82.91	-0.81	-0.27	-0.48	23.49	0.09	44.59	95.84	-1.16	0.03	-0.10	5.14	4.62	3.78	6.26	0.52	0.50	-1.29	0	0	0	0	0
2022	22.89	-0.76	50.73	98.45	0.08	0.63	0.35	24.32	-0.64	70.70	99.33	0.36	0.25	0.14	22.07	-0.22	42.96	97.70	-0.14	0.67	0.44	23.38	-0.05	72.13	99.32	0.37	0.26	0.12	6.85	6.96	0.80	1.18	0.57	0.58	-1.60	1	0	1	1	0
2023	24.16	0.49	39.89	96.68	-0.49	0.66	0.36	25.60	0.60	56.98	97.69	-0.67	-0.00	-0.13	23.00	0.67	44.05	88.94	-0.50	0.43	0.17	24.15	0.69	69.51	97.73	-0.36	0.24	0.08	5.13	5.16	1.83	1.80	0.54	0.54	4.73	0	0	0	0	0
2024	24.43	0.73	53.03	86.97	0.46	-0.29	-0.63	25.65	0.62	65.32	93.77	0.02	-0.52	-0.66	22.57	0.21	54.37	94.91	-0.13	0.24	-0.05	23.75	0.25	85.93	98.12	0.05	-0.01	-0.18	6.66	6.70	1.11	1.66	0.56	0.56	3.96	0	0	0	0	0
2025	23.72	-0.01	44.19	93.51	-0.36	-0.02	-0.39	25.14	0.06	58.46	96.09	-0.28	0.17	0.02	22.43	0.03	67.80	94.75	0.87	0.12	-0.19	23.52	-0.02	80.57	97.84	0.24	0.27	0.07	5.13	4.43	1.60	3.62	0.51	0.50	NaN	0	0	0	0	0