Guatemala: which indicators track drought impact?

lac-dry-corridor 2026-03-13 (endorsed): SEAS5 Primera/Postrera over 4 eastern departments. Main season used here: May–Aug (Primera). Production target: Maize (corn), Beans, dry (FAOSTAT, national, % from 2001–2024 trend).

Framework area

Indicator	r with production	R²	Leave-one-out R²	p	AUC, impact seasons	AUC, CERF-dated	AUC, EM-DAT	AUC, framework bad years
Temperature	-0.26	0.07	-0.12	0.222	0.24	0.31	0.23	0.31
Biomass (zFPARc)	+0.06	0.00	-0.17	0.779	0.55	0.57	0.55	0.57
FAO ASI	-0.42	0.18	+0.06	0.039	0.50	0.62	0.41	0.62
FAO mean VHI	+0.46	0.21	+0.08	0.024	0.58	0.72	0.45	0.72
Rainfall (CHIRPS/ASAP)	+0.22	0.05	-0.14	0.294	0.60	0.79	0.52	0.79
Rainfall (ERA5)	+0.22	0.05	-0.14	0.295	0.70	0.78	0.62	0.78
SPI-3	+0.23	0.05	-0.15	0.284	0.68	0.81	0.58	0.81
Water balance	-0.05	0.00	-0.14	0.816	0.65	0.66	0.65	0.66

Combination	R²	Leave-one-out R²	Coefficients (z per sd)
Temperature + Biomass (zFPARc)	0.07	-0.24	-1.33 (p 0.221), +0.42 (p 0.698)
Temperature + Rainfall (CHIRPS/ASAP)	0.11	-0.17	-1.27 (p 0.234), +1.08 (p 0.306)
Temperature + FAO ASI	0.25	+0.03	-1.34 (p 0.172), -2.15 (p 0.034)
Biomass (zFPARc) + Rainfall (CHIRPS/ASAP)	0.06	-0.24	-0.74 (p 0.601), +1.61 (p 0.264)
Temperature + Biomass (zFPARc) + Rainfall (CHIRPS/ASAP)	0.12	-0.28	-1.21 (p 0.269), -0.52 (p 0.713), +1.43 (p 0.320)
Temperature + FAO mean VHI	0.28	+0.07	-1.27 (p 0.188), +2.29 (p 0.023)

Hot vs cool, low vs high biomass (median splits)

Quadrant	Seasons	Mean production anomaly	Impact-season rate	Seasons
hot / low biomass	4	-2.0%	0%	2002, 2003, 2016, 2024
hot / high biomass	8	-1.0%	12%	2005, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2017, 2019, 2021, 2023
cool / low biomass	8	+0.7%	50%	2001, 2004, 2007, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2018, 2022
cool / high biomass	4	+2.2%	50%	2006, 2008, 2009, 2020

Impact seasons (7): 2001, 2008, 2009, 2012, 2014, 2015, 2018.

National mean of ASAP units

Indicator	r with production	R²	Leave-one-out R²	p	AUC, impact seasons	AUC, CERF-dated	AUC, EM-DAT	AUC, framework bad years
Temperature	-0.27	0.07	-0.14	0.209	0.29	0.47	0.18	0.47
Biomass (zFPARc)	-0.03	0.00	-0.14	0.904	0.54	0.50	0.49	0.50
FAO ASI	-0.50	0.24	+0.13	0.014	0.35	0.60	0.23	0.60
FAO mean VHI	+0.46	0.21	+0.07	0.023	0.49	0.69	0.33	0.69
Rainfall (CHIRPS/ASAP)	+0.28	0.08	-0.12	0.191	0.64	0.80	0.52	0.80
Rainfall (ERA5)	+0.25	0.06	-0.11	0.243	0.70	0.82	0.57	0.82
SPI-3	+0.32	0.10	-0.08	0.128	0.61	0.74	0.51	0.74
Water balance	+0.14	0.02	-0.18	0.512	0.46	0.56	0.34	0.56

Combination	R²	Leave-one-out R²	Coefficients (z per sd)
Temperature + Biomass (zFPARc)	0.08	-0.24	-1.45 (p 0.194), -0.49 (p 0.658)
Temperature + Rainfall (CHIRPS/ASAP)	0.13	-0.15	-1.17 (p 0.271), +1.23 (p 0.248)
Temperature + FAO ASI	0.26	+0.06	-0.72 (p 0.469), -2.29 (p 0.029)
Biomass (zFPARc) + Rainfall (CHIRPS/ASAP)	0.08	-0.17	-0.35 (p 0.743), +1.44 (p 0.190)
Temperature + Biomass (zFPARc) + Rainfall (CHIRPS/ASAP)	0.14	-0.23	-1.32 (p 0.236), -0.65 (p 0.552), +1.31 (p 0.231)
Temperature + FAO mean VHI	0.23	-0.01	-0.63 (p 0.543), +2.11 (p 0.051)

Hot vs cool, low vs high biomass (median splits)

Quadrant	Seasons	Mean production anomaly	Impact-season rate	Seasons
hot / low biomass	6	-1.3%	17%	2002, 2003, 2005, 2015, 2016, 2024
hot / high biomass	6	-2.0%	17%	2009, 2010, 2011, 2019, 2020, 2023
cool / low biomass	6	+2.7%	50%	2001, 2007, 2008, 2013, 2018, 2022
cool / high biomass	6	+0.5%	33%	2004, 2006, 2012, 2014, 2017, 2021

Impact seasons (7): 2001, 2008, 2009, 2012, 2014, 2015, 2018.

How impact records were dated to seasons

Record	Period	Season	Rule
CERF 2009 Rapid Response $5.0M	2009-05-01 → 2009-09-28	2009	overlap
CERF 2014 Rapid Response $2.9M	2014-06-01 → 2014-08-28	2014	overlap
CERF 2016 Rapid Response $4.8M	2015-05-01 → 2015-09-28	2015	overlap
CERF 2019 Rapid Response $2.0M	2018-06-01 → 2018-08-28	2018	overlap
CERF 2020 Underfunded Emergencies $5.0M (undated)	2020-01-01 →	2019	undated: last-season-before-impact
CERF 2025 Rapid Response $4.0M	2025-09-01 → 2025-11-28	2025	last-season-before-impact
CERF 2026 Rapid Response $4.0M	2026-05-01 → 2026-08-28	2026	overlap
EM-DAT 2001-9383-GTM (113596 affected)	2001-09-01 → 2001-12-28	2001	last-season-before-impact
EM-DAT 2009-9415-GTM (2500000 affected)	2009-03-01 → 2009-12-28	2008	last-season-before-impact
EM-DAT 2012-9355-GTM (266485 affected)	2012-06-01 → 2012-12-28	2012	last-season-before-impact
EM-DAT 2014-9277-GTM (1300000 affected)	2014-08-01 → 2016-12-28	2014	last-season-before-impact
EM-DAT 2018-9277-GTM (1500000 affected)	2018-06-01 → 2019-03-28	2018	last-season-before-impact

Season table

	t_primera_aoi	t_dt_primera_aoi	rain_primera_aoi	wsi_primera_aoi	spi_primera_aoi	z_primera_aoi	z_dt_primera_aoi	t_primera_nat	t_dt_primera_nat	rain_primera_nat	wsi_primera_nat	spi_primera_nat	z_primera_nat	z_dt_primera_nat	t_postrera_aoi	t_dt_postrera_aoi	rain_postrera_aoi	wsi_postrera_aoi	spi_postrera_aoi	z_postrera_aoi	z_dt_postrera_aoi	t_postrera_nat	t_dt_postrera_nat	rain_postrera_nat	wsi_postrera_nat	spi_postrera_nat	z_postrera_nat	z_dt_postrera_nat	era5_nat	era5_aoi	asi_nat	asi_aoi	mvhi_nat	mvhi_aoi	prod_anom	impact	impact_cerf	impact_emdat	impact_plus_undated	bad_year
year
2001	22.63	-0.43	50.99	96.25	-0.95	-1.05	-0.86	21.81	-0.27	70.67	97.73	-0.75	-0.62	-0.51	21.09	-0.56	46.82	98.01	0.16	-0.37	-0.24	20.53	-0.39	61.10	98.25	-0.48	-0.20	-0.11	6.59	5.02	0.74	2.41	0.54	0.49	-5.04	1	0	1	1	0
2002	23.09	-0.01	44.63	95.26	-0.84	-0.70	-0.53	22.22	0.08	72.09	95.18	-0.49	-0.33	-0.22	21.95	0.26	49.61	97.68	-0.13	-0.39	-0.28	21.10	0.14	69.52	97.39	-0.21	-0.10	-0.02	6.33	4.85	4.03	12.04	0.51	0.44	-6.27	0	0	0	0	0
2003	23.50	0.35	52.63	98.85	0.05	-0.21	-0.06	22.39	0.21	79.00	98.37	0.09	-0.13	-0.04	22.06	0.32	42.45	98.40	-0.47	-0.07	0.03	21.27	0.28	66.33	98.86	-0.39	0.01	0.08	6.59	4.96	9.77	17.08	0.48	0.40	-6.64	0	0	0	0	0
2004	22.76	-0.44	45.03	98.92	-0.75	-0.68	-0.53	21.83	-0.40	65.44	98.36	-0.80	0.11	0.19	22.10	0.32	43.50	98.15	-0.42	-0.39	-0.30	21.19	0.16	62.69	98.01	-0.72	0.10	0.16	6.50	5.31	13.49	30.05	0.47	0.40	-7.33	0	0	0	0	0
2005	23.34	0.09	75.42	98.82	1.19	0.08	0.20	22.35	0.08	95.86	98.56	0.91	-0.03	0.04	21.37	-0.45	43.54	96.34	0.26	0.25	0.33	20.79	-0.29	81.61	97.22	0.75	-0.14	-0.08	8.70	8.15	0.42	0.00	0.55	0.56	-3.82	0	0	0	0	0
2006	22.85	-0.45	64.59	99.51	0.98	0.34	0.45	22.01	-0.30	90.49	98.76	0.88	0.09	0.16	21.92	0.05	39.67	99.68	-0.67	0.03	0.10	21.26	0.14	62.90	99.29	-0.58	0.20	0.25	8.87	7.77	0.01	0.00	0.56	0.57	0.96	0	0	0	0	0
2007	23.25	-0.10	59.75	92.96	-0.07	-0.33	-0.23	22.25	-0.11	78.58	96.25	-0.51	-0.12	-0.06	21.27	-0.64	51.51	97.52	0.69	0.15	0.21	20.68	-0.48	71.10	97.37	0.36	-0.03	0.01	6.99	5.94	2.64	0.62	0.52	0.54	5.37	0	0	0	0	0
2008	23.01	-0.38	75.05	98.87	1.12	0.03	0.11	21.91	-0.50	98.13	98.80	1.05	-0.18	-0.13	20.97	-0.99	54.63	97.34	0.78	0.02	0.07	20.51	-0.70	76.97	97.87	0.60	-0.28	-0.24	8.06	7.15	0.27	0.19	0.57	0.57	10.37	1	0	1	1	0
2009	23.35	-0.09	54.76	99.43	-0.12	0.58	0.65	22.50	0.05	75.31	97.83	-0.24	0.09	0.13	22.58	0.59	28.87	98.41	-1.74	-0.05	-0.01	21.72	0.47	52.08	97.52	-1.50	0.05	0.08	6.45	6.06	1.83	1.87	0.51	0.49	2.46	1	1	0	1	1
2010	23.73	0.24	95.70	99.64	2.05	0.65	0.70	22.65	0.15	136.10	99.18	2.18	0.05	0.08	21.66	-0.38	43.55	93.21	0.75	-0.03	0.00	21.04	-0.24	69.03	95.77	0.81	-0.56	-0.54	10.58	8.63	1.12	0.05	0.57	0.61	1.53	0	0	0	0	0
2011	23.74	0.20	72.41	99.56	0.99	0.57	0.60	22.66	0.11	97.55	98.83	0.71	0.06	0.08	21.66	-0.42	55.11	97.88	0.90	0.34	0.36	21.04	-0.29	91.07	97.78	1.45	-0.05	-0.03	7.96	6.59	0.50	0.15	0.57	0.60	1.59	0	0	0	0	0
2012	23.55	-0.04	65.65	99.29	0.24	0.58	0.60	22.44	-0.15	88.96	99.07	0.22	0.43	0.43	21.52	-0.60	30.36	95.77	-0.41	0.19	0.20	21.00	-0.37	51.12	97.81	-0.60	0.34	0.35	7.94	6.13	0.49	0.33	0.55	0.56	2.36	1	0	1	1	0
2013	23.33	-0.31	54.55	99.73	-0.11	-0.00	-0.00	22.39	-0.25	90.60	98.64	0.40	-0.09	-0.09	22.34	0.17	63.73	99.84	1.14	0.16	0.16	21.52	0.11	90.73	99.32	1.14	-0.04	-0.04	8.36	6.50	1.23	0.90	0.55	0.55	4.40	0	0	0	0	0
2014	23.45	-0.24	53.61	98.13	-0.36	0.08	0.06	22.57	-0.11	79.23	98.62	0.03	0.15	0.14	21.81	-0.40	56.91	98.72	0.77	-0.11	-0.12	21.20	-0.25	79.89	98.74	0.46	-0.03	-0.04	7.32	5.15	1.35	1.32	0.52	0.51	3.74	1	1	1	1	1
2015	23.63	-0.11	30.32	96.58	-2.00	-1.26	-1.29	22.83	0.10	54.93	98.29	-1.36	-0.30	-0.32	22.79	0.53	55.40	97.73	-0.27	-0.89	-0.91	21.99	0.50	87.12	98.73	0.00	-0.24	-0.26	5.45	4.01	7.50	15.72	0.48	0.43	3.89	1	1	0	1	1
2016	23.95	0.16	46.35	97.24	-1.12	-0.87	-0.92	22.98	0.21	75.01	97.95	-0.48	-0.21	-0.24	22.34	0.04	29.80	97.74	-1.07	-0.75	-0.78	21.52	-0.02	53.73	98.32	-0.90	-0.08	-0.10	6.59	5.41	5.27	11.46	0.51	0.46	4.41	0	0	0	0	0
2017	23.80	-0.04	73.28	99.79	1.33	0.62	0.55	22.75	-0.07	91.93	98.70	0.83	0.26	0.22	22.23	-0.11	55.48	99.45	0.70	0.50	0.46	21.57	-0.01	73.70	98.83	0.18	0.15	0.13	8.27	7.29	0.85	0.16	0.58	0.62	5.21	0	0	0	0	0
2018	23.60	-0.29	41.18	98.19	-0.95	-0.10	-0.18	22.65	-0.22	67.69	98.74	-0.52	0.07	0.03	22.44	0.05	36.66	97.92	-0.92	-0.28	-0.33	21.70	0.09	61.84	98.52	-0.63	-0.03	-0.07	6.12	5.24	3.08	2.97	0.53	0.52	4.72	1	1	1	1	1
2019	24.39	0.46	43.02	99.00	-1.40	0.56	0.46	23.28	0.36	60.63	98.48	-1.37	0.19	0.13	22.72	0.29	48.93	99.08	0.14	0.23	0.17	21.85	0.20	76.33	98.77	0.19	0.08	0.04	5.33	4.55	6.69	6.92	0.50	0.48	-8.11	0	0	0	1	0
2020	23.91	-0.07	59.54	99.73	-0.02	0.19	0.08	22.94	-0.03	84.34	98.32	0.01	0.20	0.13	22.49	0.02	64.62	99.99	0.59	0.52	0.45	21.64	-0.06	90.69	99.18	0.60	0.25	0.20	8.81	7.31	2.73	2.40	0.53	0.54	-4.85	0	0	0	0	0
2021	24.00	-0.03	57.43	98.59	-0.06	0.45	0.33	22.82	-0.18	80.87	99.00	-0.09	0.49	0.41	22.91	0.40	33.49	97.93	-0.63	0.18	0.10	21.86	0.12	52.37	98.48	-0.82	0.37	0.31	7.34	6.31	4.76	4.67	0.51	0.50	-2.13	0	0	0	0	0
2022	23.70	-0.39	71.02	99.51	1.15	0.03	-0.11	22.60	-0.45	94.50	98.99	0.76	-0.07	-0.15	22.51	-0.05	56.65	99.34	0.58	0.38	0.29	21.66	-0.13	82.02	99.22	0.63	0.05	-0.02	7.76	7.19	2.75	2.08	0.55	0.55	-3.87	0	0	0	0	0
2023	24.75	0.62	51.42	98.38	-0.72	0.36	0.20	23.65	0.55	69.38	96.35	-0.92	0.16	0.06	23.14	0.54	31.99	99.56	-1.01	0.36	0.26	22.38	0.56	64.71	98.26	-0.43	0.27	0.20	5.84	5.10	5.48	1.71	0.50	0.52	-4.80	0	0	0	0	0
2024	24.89	0.72	50.57	89.92	0.01	-0.65	-0.82	23.66	0.51	84.50	92.72	0.56	-0.72	-0.82	22.89	0.25	52.20	96.51	-0.01	-0.33	-0.44	22.04	0.18	72.73	96.84	-0.19	-0.31	-0.39	8.50	6.23	6.07	4.06	0.52	0.52	0.40	0	0	0	0	0
2025	24.16	-0.06	48.97	95.26	-0.25	-0.31	-0.50	23.17	-0.03	67.37	97.07	-0.64	-0.17	-0.28	22.57	-0.12	58.78	97.28	0.70	-0.03	-0.15	21.72	-0.19	78.74	97.67	0.40	0.03	-0.06	5.92	5.25	6.06	3.97	0.49	0.49	NaN	1	1	0	1	0