← Drought indicators vs impact

Ethiopia: which indicators track drought impact?

eth-drought 2026-06-09 (development): SEAS5 zone counts MAM/JJAS; OND via WFP/IRI. Main season used here: Jun–Sep (Kiremt, Meher harvest). Production target: Cereals, primary (FAOSTAT, national, % from 2001–2024 trend).

Framework area

Indicatorr with productionR²Leave-one-out R²pAUC, impact seasonsAUC, CERF-datedAUC, EM-DAT
Temperature-0.160.02-0.190.4670.600.600.54
Biomass (zFPARc)+0.170.03-0.150.4260.390.320.41
FAO ASI-0.160.02-0.120.4680.440.270.57
FAO mean VHI+0.060.00-0.170.7700.430.270.59
Rainfall (CHIRPS/ASAP)+0.040.00-0.160.8630.500.500.44
Rainfall (ERA5)+0.120.01-0.150.5820.610.540.52
SPI-3+0.090.01-0.160.6910.500.490.41
Water balance+0.170.03-0.140.4260.540.440.49
CombinationR²Leave-one-out R²Coefficients (z per sd)
Temperature + Biomass (zFPARc)0.04-0.27-0.99 (p 0.583), +1.14 (p 0.527)
Temperature + Rainfall (CHIRPS/ASAP)0.03-0.29-1.35 (p 0.483), -0.24 (p 0.901)
Temperature + FAO ASI0.04-0.26-1.01 (p 0.575), -1.01 (p 0.578)
Biomass (zFPARc) + Rainfall (CHIRPS/ASAP)0.03-0.25+1.46 (p 0.442), -0.23 (p 0.902)
Temperature + Biomass (zFPARc) + Rainfall (CHIRPS/ASAP)0.05-0.41-1.21 (p 0.538), +1.33 (p 0.492), -0.67 (p 0.745)
Temperature + FAO mean VHI0.03-0.31-1.21 (p 0.502), +0.30 (p 0.868)

Hot vs cool, low vs high biomass (median splits)

QuadrantSeasonsMean production anomalyImpact-season rateSeasons
hot / low biomass6+2.3%50%2002, 2009, 2012, 2014, 2015, 2017
hot / high biomass6-3.2%83%2005, 2006, 2010, 2016, 2023, 2024
cool / low biomass6-5.7%67%2003, 2004, 2008, 2011, 2021, 2022
cool / high biomass6+6.4%50%2001, 2007, 2013, 2018, 2019, 2020

Impact seasons (15): 2002, 2005, 2007, 2008, 2010, 2011, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024.

National mean of ASAP units

Indicatorr with productionR²Leave-one-out R²pAUC, impact seasonsAUC, CERF-datedAUC, EM-DAT
Temperature-0.130.02-0.190.5370.620.610.54
Biomass (zFPARc)+0.170.03-0.200.4380.390.350.44
FAO ASI-0.220.05-0.130.3120.410.260.55
FAO mean VHI+0.130.02-0.220.5350.410.260.59
Rainfall (CHIRPS/ASAP)+0.020.00-0.160.9410.500.470.47
Rainfall (ERA5)+0.150.02-0.150.4900.700.590.53
SPI-3+0.060.00-0.160.7710.490.470.43
Water balance+0.170.03-0.140.4140.540.440.49
CombinationR²Leave-one-out R²Coefficients (z per sd)
Temperature + Biomass (zFPARc)0.04-0.32-0.83 (p 0.644), +1.17 (p 0.515)
Temperature + Rainfall (CHIRPS/ASAP)0.02-0.30-1.53 (p 0.487), -0.77 (p 0.724)
Temperature + FAO ASI0.05-0.29-0.58 (p 0.753), -1.56 (p 0.399)
Biomass (zFPARc) + Rainfall (CHIRPS/ASAP)0.03-0.28+1.51 (p 0.429), -0.45 (p 0.813)
Temperature + Biomass (zFPARc) + Rainfall (CHIRPS/ASAP)0.06-0.46-1.57 (p 0.479), +1.55 (p 0.425), -1.39 (p 0.553)
Temperature + FAO mean VHI0.03-0.38-0.81 (p 0.661), +0.82 (p 0.658)

Hot vs cool, low vs high biomass (median splits)

QuadrantSeasonsMean production anomalyImpact-season rateSeasons
hot / low biomass5+2.7%40%2009, 2012, 2014, 2015, 2017
hot / high biomass7-2.7%86%2002, 2005, 2006, 2010, 2016, 2023, 2024
cool / low biomass7-4.8%57%2003, 2004, 2008, 2011, 2013, 2021, 2022
cool / high biomass5+7.6%60%2001, 2007, 2018, 2019, 2020

Impact seasons (15): 2002, 2005, 2007, 2008, 2010, 2011, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024.

How impact records were dated to seasons

RecordPeriodSeasonRule
CERF 2006 Rapid Response $4.0M2005-10-01 → 2005-12-282005last-season-before-impact
CERF 2008 Rapid Response $20.0M2007-10-01 → 2008-05-282007last-season-before-impact
CERF 2011 Rapid Response $14.6M2010-10-01 → 2011-05-282010last-season-before-impact
CERF 2011 Underfunded Emergencies $11.0M (undated)2011-01-01 → 2010undated: last-season-before-impact
CERF 2012 Underfunded Emergencies $9.9M (undated)2012-01-01 → 2011undated: last-season-before-impact
CERF 2015 Rapid Response $17.0M2015-02-01 → 2015-09-282015overlap
CERF 2015 Underfunded Emergencies $10.0M (undated)2015-01-01 → 2014undated: last-season-before-impact
CERF 2017 Rapid Response $18.5M2016-03-01 → 2016-12-282016overlap
CERF 2017 Rapid Response $10.0M2016-10-01 → 2017-06-282017overlap
CERF 2019 Rapid Response $10.0M2019-03-01 → 2019-05-282018last-season-before-impact
CERF 2021 Rapid Response $5.0M2020-10-01 → 2021-05-282020last-season-before-impact
CERF 2021 Rapid Response $20.0M2020-10-01 → 2021-05-282020last-season-before-impact
CERF 2021 Rapid Response $5.0M2020-10-01 → 2021-12-282021overlap
CERF 2022 Rapid Response $12.0M2020-10-01 → 2022-05-282021overlap
CERF 2023 Rapid Response $10.0M2022-03-01 → 2022-12-282022overlap
CERF 2023 Underfunded Emergencies $23.0M (undated)2023-01-01 → 2022undated: last-season-before-impact
CERF 2024 Rapid Response $10.0M2024-10-01 → 2024-12-282024last-season-before-impact
CERF 2024 Rapid Response $17.0M2023-06-01 → 2023-09-282023overlap
CERF 2026 Rapid Response $3.0M2026-06-01 → 2026-09-282026overlap
EM-DAT 1999-9388-ETH (4900000 affected)1999-09-01 → 2000-12-281999last-season-before-impact
EM-DAT 2003-9772-ETH (12600000 affected)2003-01-01 → 2004-12-282002last-season-before-impact
EM-DAT 2005-9747-ETH (2600000 affected)2005-11-01 → 2006-12-282005last-season-before-impact
EM-DAT 2008-9200-ETH (6400000 affected)2008-05-01 → 2009-10-282007last-season-before-impact
EM-DAT 2009-9615-ETH (6200000 affected)2009-01-01 → 2010-08-282008last-season-before-impact
EM-DAT 2010-9082-ETH (4805679 affected)2011-01-01 → 2012-01-282010last-season-before-impact
EM-DAT 2011-9663-ETH (1000000 affected)2012-01-01 → 2012-12-282011last-season-before-impact
EM-DAT 2015-9545-ETH (10200000 affected)2015-09-01 → 2017-04-282015last-season-before-impact
EM-DAT 2021-9546-ETH (6800000 affected)2021-05-01 → 2022-02-282020last-season-before-impact
EM-DAT 2022-9174-ETH (24100000 affected)2022-01-01 → 2023-02-282021last-season-before-impact

Season table

t_kiremt_aoi t_dt_kiremt_aoi rain_kiremt_aoi wsi_kiremt_aoi spi_kiremt_aoi z_kiremt_aoi z_dt_kiremt_aoi t_kiremt_nat t_dt_kiremt_nat rain_kiremt_nat wsi_kiremt_nat spi_kiremt_nat z_kiremt_nat z_dt_kiremt_nat t_belg_aoi t_dt_belg_aoi rain_belg_aoi wsi_belg_aoi spi_belg_aoi z_belg_aoi z_dt_belg_aoi t_belg_nat t_dt_belg_nat rain_belg_nat wsi_belg_nat spi_belg_nat z_belg_nat z_dt_belg_nat t_deyr_aoi t_dt_deyr_aoi rain_deyr_aoi wsi_deyr_aoi spi_deyr_aoi z_deyr_aoi z_dt_deyr_aoi t_deyr_nat t_dt_deyr_nat rain_deyr_nat wsi_deyr_nat spi_deyr_nat z_deyr_nat z_dt_deyr_nat era5_nat era5_aoi asi_nat asi_aoi mvhi_nat mvhi_aoi prod_anom impact impact_cerf impact_emdat impact_plus_undated
year
2001 19.63 -0.31 43.95 82.28 0.08 0.16 0.40 19.26 -0.31 57.56 88.65 0.21 0.22 0.45 20.80 -0.33 39.36 81.07 -0.01 0.08 0.24 20.62 -0.29 37.77 78.63 -0.07 0.04 0.25 20.28 0.08 15.35 67.82 -0.40 0.08 0.39 19.90 0.05 15.12 70.55 -0.50 0.18 0.51 4.52 3.39 5.00 19.79 0.51 0.48 23.25 0 0 0 0
2002 20.09 0.12 37.17 78.37 -0.80 -0.21 0.01 19.81 0.22 48.20 85.01 -0.81 -0.18 0.02 21.16 0.00 31.97 82.12 -0.29 0.14 0.28 21.12 0.18 30.55 77.52 -0.37 0.08 0.28 20.27 0.05 18.96 66.16 -0.57 -0.26 0.02 20.02 0.14 17.79 67.93 -0.62 -0.26 0.04 3.91 2.62 25.61 45.17 0.41 0.36 0.21 1 0 1 1
2003 19.65 -0.34 45.35 81.93 0.02 -0.33 -0.13 19.29 -0.32 59.72 87.76 0.07 -0.35 -0.16 21.14 -0.04 36.03 80.99 -0.05 -0.18 -0.05 21.13 0.16 32.06 75.75 -0.35 -0.28 -0.10 20.07 -0.17 14.17 61.52 -0.50 -0.72 -0.46 19.77 -0.13 13.62 65.70 -0.45 -0.60 -0.32 4.52 3.27 19.56 33.30 0.45 0.42 -6.36 0 0 0 0
2004 19.96 -0.06 39.50 76.82 -0.70 -0.42 -0.24 19.56 -0.07 51.51 84.31 -0.58 -0.37 -0.20 20.90 -0.32 30.92 85.91 -0.37 0.04 0.16 20.80 -0.20 29.98 81.23 -0.42 -0.10 0.06 20.05 -0.22 18.09 68.90 -0.14 -0.23 0.00 19.82 -0.10 17.41 70.28 -0.25 -0.29 -0.04 4.16 2.93 14.74 24.52 0.44 0.44 -10.90 0 0 0 0
2005 20.16 0.12 40.28 80.84 -0.08 0.15 0.31 19.73 0.07 53.47 87.26 -0.08 0.06 0.21 21.13 -0.12 47.16 80.14 0.30 0.05 0.15 20.94 -0.09 43.75 78.44 0.19 -0.07 0.07 20.44 0.14 11.99 62.85 -0.58 -0.21 -0.00 20.09 0.14 11.85 66.50 -0.58 -0.22 -0.00 4.49 3.13 4.11 9.67 0.49 0.51 1.36 1 1 1 1
2006 20.18 0.11 45.24 82.56 0.23 -0.02 0.12 19.72 0.04 58.89 88.65 0.30 0.00 0.13 21.09 -0.18 42.31 88.29 0.37 0.44 0.53 20.82 -0.24 42.97 85.71 0.30 0.27 0.40 20.28 -0.03 27.36 78.51 0.59 0.20 0.38 19.95 -0.02 26.36 78.32 0.58 0.14 0.33 4.57 3.30 11.15 10.83 0.46 0.46 -8.05 0 0 0 0
2007 20.06 -0.03 53.84 85.88 0.96 0.37 0.49 19.59 -0.12 66.03 91.04 0.83 0.40 0.52 21.59 0.30 38.66 83.61 0.01 0.19 0.26 21.38 0.29 38.05 81.31 0.05 0.21 0.32 20.37 0.03 11.96 64.92 -0.23 0.01 0.16 19.87 -0.13 11.78 67.72 -0.29 0.04 0.20 4.96 3.76 9.78 22.06 0.46 0.43 -8.81 1 1 1 1
2008 20.05 -0.06 46.44 79.88 0.19 -0.31 -0.21 19.63 -0.10 58.12 86.97 0.18 -0.15 -0.05 21.24 -0.09 30.18 76.78 -1.03 -0.75 -0.69 20.93 -0.18 33.45 75.58 -0.71 -0.53 -0.45 20.13 -0.24 25.28 70.99 0.82 0.07 0.20 19.81 -0.22 22.51 72.81 0.54 0.00 0.14 4.22 3.16 12.66 46.15 0.45 0.38 -10.77 1 0 1 1
2009 20.64 0.50 36.65 74.28 -0.78 -0.92 -0.84 20.28 0.53 47.69 82.53 -0.82 -0.79 -0.71 21.80 0.45 29.04 78.57 -0.75 -0.47 -0.42 21.60 0.46 28.47 75.39 -0.58 -0.42 -0.35 20.72 0.34 21.73 65.05 -0.07 -0.77 -0.66 20.35 0.30 19.44 66.97 -0.36 -0.78 -0.67 3.71 2.72 20.75 54.39 0.40 0.32 -2.97 0 0 0 0
2010 20.19 0.02 46.06 84.56 0.25 0.29 0.35 19.77 0.00 60.03 89.97 0.30 0.01 0.07 21.13 -0.25 50.93 89.21 1.04 0.78 0.82 21.01 -0.16 45.77 85.54 0.67 0.47 0.53 20.73 0.32 10.20 58.40 -0.83 -0.32 -0.25 20.21 0.13 10.76 63.52 -0.71 -0.37 -0.29 4.51 3.27 4.60 1.04 0.50 0.56 2.30 1 1 1 1
2011 20.01 -0.18 49.07 81.05 0.69 -0.16 -0.12 19.56 -0.23 60.80 87.68 0.56 -0.13 -0.09 21.76 0.36 32.63 63.38 -1.18 -1.04 -1.01 21.31 0.11 36.40 66.41 -0.89 -0.81 -0.78 19.92 -0.51 21.14 73.21 0.19 0.15 0.20 19.60 -0.49 18.60 73.58 0.03 0.08 0.13 4.29 3.37 12.84 34.22 0.44 0.38 -2.81 1 0 1 1
2012 20.23 0.02 51.15 82.68 0.64 -0.17 -0.15 19.75 -0.06 64.11 88.72 0.68 -0.18 -0.16 21.38 -0.05 35.59 81.73 -0.38 -0.74 -0.72 21.18 -0.05 35.21 80.01 -0.46 -0.74 -0.72 20.62 0.16 15.43 68.35 -0.23 -0.08 -0.06 20.21 0.09 16.15 70.86 -0.20 -0.19 -0.16 4.74 3.45 11.65 29.66 0.45 0.40 -0.71 0 0 0 0
2013 19.92 -0.32 46.45 83.33 0.25 0.12 0.12 19.55 -0.29 58.83 89.12 0.27 -0.01 -0.01 21.16 -0.30 45.51 89.28 0.47 0.17 0.17 21.14 -0.12 41.87 82.77 0.07 -0.07 -0.07 20.07 -0.42 23.20 75.48 0.53 0.29 0.29 19.72 -0.42 22.12 76.19 0.40 0.19 0.19 4.49 3.38 6.25 9.12 0.48 0.49 0.45 0 0 0 0
2014 20.41 0.15 41.23 81.31 -0.33 0.03 0.01 19.96 0.10 52.93 87.69 -0.36 0.04 0.02 21.39 -0.09 43.27 83.01 0.22 0.24 0.23 21.01 -0.28 47.16 82.96 0.53 0.40 0.39 20.30 -0.21 20.85 70.90 0.51 0.28 0.25 19.97 -0.20 21.22 73.91 0.58 0.27 0.25 4.30 3.16 5.02 12.76 0.49 0.47 3.37 0 0 0 1
2015 20.90 0.61 40.41 76.13 -0.32 -0.27 -0.31 20.54 0.66 49.33 83.16 -0.60 -0.26 -0.30 21.37 -0.14 35.45 83.17 -0.62 -0.52 -0.55 21.25 -0.07 37.07 79.39 -0.51 -0.45 -0.48 20.96 0.43 22.61 68.93 0.25 -0.05 -0.10 20.70 0.51 22.31 71.01 0.23 -0.13 -0.18 3.72 2.93 23.26 46.47 0.40 0.32 5.22 1 1 1 1
2016 20.34 0.03 38.07 80.22 -0.53 0.16 0.10 19.99 0.08 51.91 87.11 -0.28 0.20 0.14 21.95 0.40 43.57 87.82 0.37 0.08 0.04 21.65 0.31 43.70 86.20 0.35 0.12 0.07 20.85 0.30 14.72 63.13 -0.49 -0.41 -0.49 20.52 0.30 13.96 66.76 -0.58 -0.28 -0.36 4.07 2.83 6.05 4.00 0.48 0.50 3.20 1 1 0 1
2017 20.53 0.20 48.90 81.01 0.29 -0.34 -0.42 20.12 0.20 61.24 87.57 0.28 -0.18 -0.25 21.95 0.38 32.61 77.06 -0.52 -0.56 -0.61 21.50 0.13 37.76 77.08 -0.20 -0.16 -0.23 20.31 -0.26 17.46 68.57 0.37 -0.14 -0.24 20.15 -0.09 17.12 71.66 0.32 -0.06 -0.17 4.35 3.39 11.84 28.72 0.45 0.40 8.60 1 1 0 1
2018 20.09 -0.27 42.36 82.81 -0.07 0.29 0.19 19.67 -0.27 55.39 89.02 -0.03 0.20 0.11 20.77 -0.83 51.37 91.24 0.95 0.51 0.44 20.71 -0.69 47.23 85.67 0.62 0.25 0.16 20.76 0.16 16.85 68.70 -0.10 0.11 -0.02 20.45 0.18 16.67 72.69 -0.05 0.11 -0.03 4.26 2.89 5.98 11.06 0.50 0.50 7.68 1 1 0 1
2019 20.26 -0.12 52.42 83.23 0.86 0.18 0.06 19.78 -0.19 64.72 89.11 0.67 0.23 0.12 22.06 0.44 38.67 77.20 -0.34 -0.41 -0.48 21.76 0.33 39.45 78.62 -0.15 -0.16 -0.26 20.28 -0.34 34.60 82.61 1.46 0.66 0.50 20.03 -0.27 33.76 82.71 1.53 0.59 0.43 5.04 3.65 6.47 17.97 0.51 0.47 9.83 0 0 0 0
2020 20.18 -0.23 52.38 85.02 0.82 0.70 0.56 19.76 -0.23 64.28 90.32 0.69 0.51 0.38 21.57 -0.08 45.93 88.36 0.67 0.74 0.65 21.39 -0.07 44.63 86.71 0.66 0.55 0.43 20.71 0.06 15.55 66.48 -0.08 0.37 0.19 20.34 0.03 15.00 69.66 -0.11 0.32 0.13 4.82 3.97 3.75 3.96 0.52 0.55 6.23 1 1 1 1
2021 20.29 -0.14 43.58 80.74 -0.08 0.06 -0.09 19.90 -0.11 57.54 87.25 0.06 0.11 -0.04 21.54 -0.14 37.62 76.82 -0.19 -0.35 -0.45 21.24 -0.24 36.53 74.17 -0.14 -0.23 -0.37 20.86 0.19 13.58 60.40 -0.23 -0.12 -0.32 20.47 0.12 14.80 65.99 -0.06 0.03 -0.19 3.90 2.91 9.07 22.08 0.50 0.45 2.13 1 1 1 1
2022 20.22 -0.24 41.32 77.04 -0.52 -0.64 -0.82 19.78 -0.25 56.57 84.81 -0.21 -0.49 -0.66 22.18 0.47 25.87 72.39 -1.12 -0.66 -0.78 21.97 0.46 26.21 70.80 -1.01 -0.46 -0.62 20.89 0.19 16.97 65.56 -0.09 -0.46 -0.69 20.40 0.03 17.21 69.79 -0.01 -0.23 -0.48 4.25 2.96 14.83 42.01 0.49 0.38 -5.45 1 1 0 1
2023 20.89 0.40 41.28 78.57 -0.43 0.60 0.40 20.56 0.50 54.03 85.66 -0.33 0.63 0.44 21.03 -0.71 57.60 92.70 1.26 0.94 0.81 21.00 -0.55 53.54 88.82 1.07 0.83 0.65 20.76 0.04 31.55 77.73 1.27 0.75 0.50 20.64 0.25 30.36 77.94 1.16 0.68 0.40 3.62 3.02 3.07 6.02 0.54 0.62 -7.84 1 1 0 1
2024 20.57 0.06 47.64 84.27 0.58 0.61 0.39 20.17 0.09 61.76 89.71 0.60 0.51 0.30 21.94 0.18 45.62 89.13 0.63 0.85 0.71 21.91 0.33 42.19 84.51 0.40 0.80 0.61 20.74 0.00 22.09 72.22 0.46 0.72 0.43 20.40 -0.02 22.51 75.02 0.54 0.69 0.39 4.46 3.50 2.05 4.04 0.57 0.58 -10.23 1 1 0 1
2025 20.49 -0.04 46.88 80.80 0.11 0.22 -0.02 20.09 -0.01 59.74 87.09 0.12 0.18 -0.05 21.86 0.07 40.50 82.16 0.06 0.52 0.36 21.69 0.09 39.68 79.59 -0.01 0.48 0.27 20.82 0.06 14.94 61.43 -0.36 0.17 -0.13 20.40 -0.04 15.46 66.77 -0.26 0.26 -0.07 4.04 3.17 7.55 23.81 0.49 0.46 NaN 0 0 0 0