bfa-drought 2026-04-17 (endorsed): SEAS5 April + ASAP level 3 over 4 provinces. Main season used here: Jul–Sep (main rainy season). Production target: Millet, Sorghum (FAOSTAT, national, % from 2001–2024 trend).
| Indicator | r with production | R² | Leave-one-out R² | p | AUC, impact seasons | AUC, CERF-dated | AUC, EM-DAT | AUC, framework bad years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Temperature | -0.52 | 0.27 | +0.18 | 0.009 | 0.75 | 0.77 | 0.76 | 0.67 |
| Biomass (zFPARc) | +0.19 | 0.03 | -0.10 | 0.386 | 0.62 | 0.64 | 0.68 | 0.75 |
| FAO ASI | -0.31 | 0.09 | -3.10 | 0.145 | 0.63 | 0.66 | 0.65 | 0.73 |
| FAO mean VHI | +0.46 | 0.21 | +0.07 | 0.024 | 0.59 | 0.77 | 0.57 | 0.64 |
| Rainfall (CHIRPS/ASAP) | +0.27 | 0.07 | -0.08 | 0.204 | 0.63 | 0.61 | 0.57 | 0.47 |
| Rainfall (ERA5) | +0.39 | 0.15 | +0.01 | 0.058 | 0.73 | 0.64 | 0.82 | 0.66 |
| SPI-3 | +0.29 | 0.09 | -0.04 | 0.162 | 0.48 | 0.50 | 0.47 | 0.51 |
| Water balance | +0.32 | 0.10 | -0.03 | 0.129 | 0.56 | 0.39 | 0.62 | 0.49 |
| Combination | R² | Leave-one-out R² | Coefficients (z per sd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Temperature + Biomass (zFPARc) | 0.28 | +0.11 | -6.03 (p 0.014), -1.12 (p 0.625) |
| Temperature + Rainfall (CHIRPS/ASAP) | 0.28 | +0.11 | -6.60 (p 0.021), -1.67 (p 0.534) |
| Temperature + FAO ASI | 0.27 | -1.31 | -5.27 (p 0.034), -0.36 (p 0.879) |
| Biomass (zFPARc) + Rainfall (CHIRPS/ASAP) | 0.09 | -0.11 | +1.54 (p 0.493), +2.58 (p 0.257) |
| Temperature + Biomass (zFPARc) + Rainfall (CHIRPS/ASAP) | 0.30 | +0.04 | -7.86 (p 0.024), -1.69 (p 0.485), -2.26 (p 0.429) |
| Temperature + FAO mean VHI | 0.30 | +0.15 | -4.04 (p 0.125), +2.18 (p 0.398) |
| Quadrant | Seasons | Mean production anomaly | Impact-season rate | Seasons |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| hot / low biomass | 8 | -4.4% | 25% | 2002, 2004, 2006, 2009, 2011, 2014, 2016, 2019 |
| hot / high biomass | 4 | -11.4% | 50% | 2001, 2017, 2021, 2023 |
| cool / low biomass | 4 | +6.0% | 0% | 2010, 2015, 2018, 2020 |
| cool / high biomass | 8 | +7.1% | 12% | 2003, 2005, 2007, 2008, 2012, 2013, 2022, 2024 |
Impact seasons (5): 2011, 2013, 2017, 2019, 2021.
| Indicator | r with production | R² | Leave-one-out R² | p | AUC, impact seasons | AUC, CERF-dated | AUC, EM-DAT | AUC, framework bad years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Temperature | -0.56 | 0.32 | +0.23 | 0.004 | 0.75 | 0.86 | 0.71 | 0.68 |
| Biomass (zFPARc) | +0.15 | 0.02 | -0.15 | 0.492 | 0.51 | 0.41 | 0.62 | 0.55 |
| FAO ASI | -0.47 | 0.22 | +0.09 | 0.020 | 0.60 | 0.61 | 0.56 | 0.62 |
| FAO mean VHI | +0.55 | 0.31 | +0.17 | 0.005 | 0.61 | 0.75 | 0.56 | 0.58 |
| Rainfall (CHIRPS/ASAP) | +0.44 | 0.19 | +0.01 | 0.031 | 0.74 | 0.95 | 0.64 | 0.63 |
| Rainfall (ERA5) | +0.43 | 0.19 | +0.05 | 0.034 | 0.74 | 0.75 | 0.79 | 0.63 |
| SPI-3 | +0.42 | 0.18 | +0.04 | 0.039 | 0.67 | 0.91 | 0.57 | 0.61 |
| Water balance | +0.17 | 0.03 | -0.23 | 0.418 | 0.42 | 0.23 | 0.51 | 0.20 |
| Combination | R² | Leave-one-out R² | Coefficients (z per sd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Temperature + Biomass (zFPARc) | 0.32 | +0.15 | -5.97 (p 0.006), -0.18 (p 0.928) |
| Temperature + Rainfall (CHIRPS/ASAP) | 0.35 | +0.14 | -4.83 (p 0.037), +2.11 (p 0.342) |
| Temperature + FAO ASI | 0.40 | +0.21 | -4.72 (p 0.023), -3.14 (p 0.118) |
| Biomass (zFPARc) + Rainfall (CHIRPS/ASAP) | 0.24 | -0.06 | +2.20 (p 0.289), +4.91 (p 0.024) |
| Temperature + Biomass (zFPARc) + Rainfall (CHIRPS/ASAP) | 0.35 | +0.05 | -4.56 (p 0.076), +0.53 (p 0.803), +2.31 (p 0.339) |
| Temperature + FAO mean VHI | 0.44 | +0.28 | -4.21 (p 0.037), +4.03 (p 0.045) |
| Quadrant | Seasons | Mean production anomaly | Impact-season rate | Seasons |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| hot / low biomass | 6 | -5.7% | 33% | 2002, 2009, 2011, 2014, 2015, 2019 |
| hot / high biomass | 6 | -8.0% | 33% | 2004, 2005, 2016, 2017, 2021, 2023 |
| cool / low biomass | 6 | +4.5% | 17% | 2006, 2007, 2013, 2018, 2020, 2024 |
| cool / high biomass | 6 | +9.2% | 0% | 2001, 2003, 2008, 2010, 2012, 2022 |
Impact seasons (5): 2011, 2013, 2017, 2019, 2021.
| Record | Period | Season | Rule |
|---|---|---|---|
| CERF 2006 Underfunded Emergencies $2.0M (undated) | 2006-01-01 → | 2005 | undated: last-season-before-impact |
| CERF 2007 Underfunded Emergencies $0.9M (undated) | 2007-01-01 → | 2006 | undated: last-season-before-impact |
| CERF 2008 Underfunded Emergencies $3.4M (undated) | 2008-01-01 → | 2007 | undated: last-season-before-impact |
| CERF 2008 Rapid Response $2.0M (undated) | 2008-01-01 → | 2007 | undated: last-season-before-impact |
| CERF 2009 Underfunded Emergencies $2.0M (undated) | 2009-01-01 → | 2008 | undated: last-season-before-impact |
| CERF 2012 Rapid Response $9.2M | 2011-06-01 → 2011-09-28 | 2011 | overlap |
| CERF 2014 Underfunded Emergencies $3.9M (undated) | 2014-01-01 → | 2013 | undated: last-season-before-impact |
| CERF 2018 Rapid Response $9.0M | 2017-06-01 → 2017-09-28 | 2017 | overlap |
| EM-DAT 2001-9044-BFA (n/a affected) | 2001-04-01 → 2001-12-28 | 2000 | last-season-before-impact |
| EM-DAT 2011-9524-BFA (2850000 affected) | 2011-12-01 → 2012-12-28 | 2011 | last-season-before-impact |
| EM-DAT 2014-9196-BFA (4000000 affected) | 2014-05-01 → 2014-12-28 | 2013 | last-season-before-impact |
| EM-DAT 2020-9235-BFA (2900000 affected) | 2020-01-01 → 2020-06-28 | 2019 | last-season-before-impact |
| EM-DAT 2022-9781-BFA (3500928 affected) | 2022-01-01 → 2022-11-28 | 2021 | last-season-before-impact |
| t_JAS_aoi | t_dt_JAS_aoi | rain_JAS_aoi | wsi_JAS_aoi | spi_JAS_aoi | z_JAS_aoi | z_dt_JAS_aoi | t_JAS_nat | t_dt_JAS_nat | rain_JAS_nat | wsi_JAS_nat | spi_JAS_nat | z_JAS_nat | z_dt_JAS_nat | era5_nat | era5_aoi | asi_nat | asi_aoi | mvhi_nat | mvhi_aoi | prod_anom | impact | impact_cerf | impact_emdat | impact_plus_undated | bad_year | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| year | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2001 | 28.37 | 0.07 | 39.72 | 93.46 | -0.29 | -0.09 | 0.46 | 26.30 | 0.02 | 56.71 | 97.49 | -0.16 | 0.05 | 0.03 | 4.82 | 3.44 | 2.76 | 1.10 | 0.51 | 0.55 | -7.92 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2002 | 29.01 | 0.70 | 36.42 | 86.77 | -1.02 | -1.20 | -0.70 | 26.77 | 0.47 | 52.90 | 95.10 | -1.00 | -0.77 | -0.78 | 4.10 | 2.47 | 29.93 | 36.38 | 0.38 | 0.36 | -8.68 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2003 | 27.79 | -0.52 | 54.24 | 98.91 | 1.59 | 0.49 | 0.95 | 26.01 | -0.30 | 68.65 | 98.39 | 1.05 | 0.70 | 0.69 | 5.62 | 3.99 | 0.25 | 0.00 | 0.56 | 0.60 | 7.45 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2004 | 28.66 | 0.34 | 34.85 | 83.29 | -1.41 | -0.54 | -0.13 | 26.38 | 0.05 | 52.80 | 96.56 | -0.78 | 0.36 | 0.35 | 3.81 | 2.59 | 17.92 | 6.34 | 0.43 | 0.48 | -10.41 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2005 | 28.32 | -0.01 | 43.77 | 96.24 | 0.64 | 0.82 | 1.18 | 26.39 | 0.04 | 58.33 | 97.43 | -0.04 | 0.52 | 0.51 | 4.22 | 3.46 | 6.86 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 0.59 | 5.09 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 2006 | 28.44 | 0.11 | 38.22 | 89.66 | -0.72 | -0.48 | -0.16 | 26.40 | 0.03 | 56.84 | 97.25 | -0.56 | -0.42 | -0.43 | 4.51 | 2.93 | 1.90 | 0.00 | 0.51 | 0.53 | 2.56 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 2007 | 28.15 | -0.20 | 46.26 | 95.43 | 0.36 | 0.38 | 0.66 | 26.29 | -0.09 | 62.67 | 94.95 | 0.19 | -0.12 | -0.13 | 4.60 | 3.38 | 23.51 | 2.28 | 0.42 | 0.54 | -6.01 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 2008 | 28.35 | 0.00 | 38.98 | 90.05 | -0.03 | 0.29 | 0.52 | 26.29 | -0.11 | 64.62 | 94.70 | 0.54 | 0.14 | 0.14 | 4.49 | 2.75 | 0.70 | 0.34 | 0.56 | 0.60 | 18.61 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 2009 | 28.83 | 0.47 | 43.18 | 88.96 | -0.04 | -0.68 | -0.50 | 26.72 | 0.30 | 64.98 | 96.54 | 0.38 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 4.60 | 2.76 | 2.62 | 5.08 | 0.52 | 0.55 | -5.83 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2010 | 28.24 | -0.13 | 44.44 | 95.72 | -0.11 | -0.48 | -0.34 | 26.47 | 0.03 | 66.26 | 98.69 | 0.41 | 0.25 | 0.24 | 5.83 | 4.20 | 0.51 | 0.00 | 0.61 | 0.62 | 18.22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2011 | 28.89 | 0.52 | 45.10 | 94.72 | 0.15 | -0.54 | -0.45 | 26.85 | 0.40 | 55.62 | 97.90 | -0.27 | -0.15 | -0.15 | 3.63 | 2.15 | 4.78 | 3.64 | 0.49 | 0.51 | -12.31 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 2012 | 27.78 | -0.60 | 56.96 | 99.10 | 1.73 | 0.33 | 0.38 | 26.14 | -0.33 | 71.09 | 99.14 | 1.16 | 0.27 | 0.27 | 5.60 | 4.61 | 0.89 | 0.10 | 0.54 | 0.64 | 12.45 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2013 | 28.36 | -0.03 | 42.84 | 94.39 | 0.10 | 0.16 | 0.16 | 26.40 | -0.08 | 59.23 | 96.09 | -0.23 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 4.28 | 2.81 | 3.34 | 0.09 | 0.52 | 0.64 | 10.52 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| 2014 | 28.72 | 0.33 | 43.81 | 92.50 | -0.32 | -0.36 | -0.41 | 26.67 | 0.17 | 60.25 | 97.68 | -0.15 | -0.09 | -0.09 | 4.14 | 2.61 | 13.12 | 4.27 | 0.45 | 0.52 | -0.19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2015 | 28.25 | -0.15 | 54.23 | 98.06 | 1.37 | -0.11 | -0.20 | 26.63 | 0.11 | 75.79 | 95.37 | 0.98 | -0.81 | -0.81 | 5.70 | 4.14 | 10.22 | 0.38 | 0.48 | 0.63 | -11.55 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2016 | 28.49 | 0.08 | 47.30 | 94.71 | 0.61 | -0.20 | -0.34 | 26.63 | 0.10 | 68.89 | 98.23 | 0.97 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 4.74 | 3.29 | 2.18 | 0.39 | 0.55 | 0.60 | -4.87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2017 | 28.51 | 0.09 | 41.70 | 95.78 | 0.13 | 0.35 | 0.17 | 26.76 | 0.21 | 49.99 | 98.42 | -0.79 | 0.46 | 0.47 | 4.63 | 3.50 | 8.38 | 1.16 | 0.49 | 0.58 | -18.98 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 2018 | 28.32 | -0.11 | 50.27 | 98.47 | 0.70 | 0.13 | -0.09 | 26.55 | -0.02 | 69.24 | 97.74 | 0.57 | -0.27 | -0.26 | 5.37 | 3.78 | 8.99 | 1.40 | 0.51 | 0.64 | 14.84 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2019 | 28.85 | 0.42 | 46.20 | 94.42 | 0.64 | -0.31 | -0.59 | 26.81 | 0.22 | 66.25 | 98.18 | 0.64 | -0.26 | -0.26 | 4.70 | 3.28 | 4.06 | 1.99 | 0.54 | 0.59 | 4.35 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 2020 | 28.24 | -0.20 | 61.41 | 96.87 | 1.77 | 0.13 | -0.18 | 26.41 | -0.20 | 72.53 | 98.02 | 0.92 | -0.33 | -0.33 | 6.16 | 4.32 | 6.63 | 0.93 | 0.53 | 0.64 | 2.40 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2021 | 28.92 | 0.47 | 42.71 | 91.37 | -0.03 | 0.66 | 0.29 | 26.76 | 0.13 | 64.07 | 97.10 | 0.52 | 0.16 | 0.16 | 4.14 | 2.03 | 10.92 | 5.39 | 0.49 | 0.55 | -14.23 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| 2022 | 28.28 | -0.18 | 49.22 | 95.70 | 0.50 | 0.39 | -0.02 | 26.24 | -0.40 | 70.43 | 98.59 | 0.84 | 0.08 | 0.09 | 5.51 | 2.89 | 3.68 | 2.33 | 0.55 | 0.64 | 6.37 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2023 | 29.07 | 0.61 | 43.07 | 92.95 | -0.03 | 0.94 | 0.48 | 27.11 | 0.44 | 61.75 | 96.82 | 0.21 | 0.24 | 0.25 | 4.49 | 2.48 | 7.54 | 3.11 | 0.53 | 0.62 | -4.40 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2024 | 28.11 | -0.36 | 53.63 | 97.78 | 1.11 | 1.21 | 0.71 | 26.57 | -0.11 | 67.20 | 96.74 | 0.40 | -0.08 | -0.07 | 5.98 | 4.53 | 1.25 | 0.06 | 0.65 | 0.78 | 2.51 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 | 27.95 | -0.53 | 54.42 | 97.75 | 0.96 | 1.54 | 0.99 | 26.13 | -0.56 | 69.24 | 98.42 | 0.48 | 0.48 | 0.49 | 4.82 | 2.98 | 5.62 | 0.66 | 0.56 | 0.71 | NaN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |