OCHA Centre for Humanitarian Data

Drought AA indicators

Cross-country evidence on which observable indicators, rainfall, water balance, satellite vegetation and temperature, actually predict drought impact in the countries where OCHA has a drought anticipatory-action framework. Built to inform trigger design across the portfolio rather than one country at a time.

Analyses

Which drought indicators predict impact?

Ten framework countries, 2001 to 2024. Every indicator behind our triggers plus growing-season temperature, ERA5 rainfall and FAO ASI/VHI, scored against six ground truths: national staple production, CERF and EM-DAT seasons, framework bad years, official province and district yields, and GDHY gridded yields. One summary matrix (out-of-sample R² or AUC), per-country heatmaps, the literature, and one page per country.

/indicators-vs-impact/

Burkina Faso: the case that started thisexternal

Heat versus the ASAP biomass proxy against real impact in the four framework provinces, on the Burkina Faso drought site.

ds-aa-bfa-drought

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